【新唐人2013年05月28日訊】中共喉舌《新華社》23號報導，中共總理李克強發表署名文章，談中國正積極推進城鎮化。然而就在同一天，英國《路透社》說，李克強將中國城鎮化支出6萬億5億美元的計劃打回，因為擔憂再一次大規模的支出，可能推高地方債務，並且吹大地產泡沫。

23號，《新華社》報導了李克強在瑞士《新蘇黎世報》發表題為《為甚麼選擇瑞士》的署名文章，文中提到，中國正在積極推進城鎮化。

中國計劃未來10年，支出約40萬億人民幣，來將4億人口轉移到城市。

但《路透社》23號透露，城鎮化方案可能延遲。報導說，為國務院提供諮詢的一家智庫的經濟學家表示，中共高層領導人已經看到了計劃不能正確實施，所可能帶來的潛在風險。

由於許多地方當局已經開始遊說，來獲得項目融資，從而引起了高層領導人的警惕。地方政府不是把城鎮化視爲改革，而只是當做擴大投資的最後機會。

由於中國城鎮化政策一直存在很大爭議。專家指出，如果李克強真的做出了推遲城鎮化的決定，還是比較明智的。

美國南卡羅來納大學教授謝田：「城鎮化方案延遲，這個應該是正確的。本來人為的強制性搞城鎮化，實際上是不符合自然經濟發展規律的。盲目的城鎮化，可能會破壞中國農業的發展，也破壞城鎮的社會結構。」

中國國內媒體也在24號報導，已有消息指稱，內地城鎮化中長期規劃再次修改，重點是抑制地方投資衝動。

地方政府之所以加緊遊説投資，是由於城鎮化被視爲擴大內需的最大潛力。之前在2008年，中共推出4萬億人民幣的刺激計劃來應對全球金融危機，這些政策遺留的影響，讓地方政府目前債臺高築，房價扶搖直上。此後，中央政府加強房地產調控，造成土地收入下滑和資產縮水，更增加了地方政府的償債壓力。

《人民日報》海外版27號說，中共不會再推新版的四萬億經濟刺激計劃。

謝田：「這是因為他們已經看到了，那個舊版的刺激計劃給中國帶來了巨大的問題。巨大的飛速增長，難以控制的通貨膨脹。中國的民怨、民憤現在已經增到了臨界點。中共當然知道，它如果再繼續印發鈔票，繼續推進通貨膨脹，繼續製造房地產和股市的泡沫的話，它自己的政治生命馬上面臨著終結。」

大陸媒體呼籲，深化改革才是根本出路。《路透社》的報導也說，李克強近期打回了發改委提出的新型城鎮化草案，要求加以調整，從而更加側重戶籍和土地改革。但是專家們指出，無論是戶籍和土地改革都非常困難。

北京《國情內參》首席研究員 鞏勝利：「現在居住證，李克強政府已經決定上了。如果兩個制度，一個戶口制，再加上現在的居住證，再加上身份證，中國一個人哪，三證在一個人身上。證越多，人生的成本越高，政府耗費的越多，納稅人交的錢，承擔的就越高。」

謝田：「在中國來說，這種涉及戶籍、土地的問題，都和政治體制緊密的連繫在一起。所以它這個改革能不能推進？推進到甚麼程度？是真的改革呢？還是喊口號？我們還不知道。但是真要改革的話，我想這一定跟中共的解體是同步的。」

中國今年第一季度經濟總體復甦乏力，5月份剛出爐的匯豐PMI初值也跌破枯榮綫，創7個月以來最低。爲了維持經濟成長率，「新城鎮化」被視為今後中國經濟發展的首要政策，但目前政府似乎開始擔憂，這一舉措可能帶來更大的債務和泡沫。

採訪/劉惠 編輯/尚燕 後製/李月

Overseas Media: China’s Urbanization Suffers Setbacks

On May 23, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s

mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency reported on an article

published by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, which spoke of

how “China is actively promoting urbanization.”

But on the same day, Reuters commented that Li will reject

the over $6-trillion spending plan on China’s urbanization

with the concern that massive spending would

increase local debt and expand the property bubble.

On May 23, Xinhua News Agency reported that

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang published an article

in Swiss New Zurich Newspaper, titled Why Swiss Was Chosen.

The article says China is actively promoting urbanization.

In the next 10 years China plans to spend over 40 trillion yuan

($6.5 trillion) to migrate 400 million people to cities.

But Reuters reported on May 23 that the

urbanization plan might be postponed.

It says economists in the think-tank for China’s State Council

say CCP leaders foresee the plan not being carried out properly

and its potential risks.

Many local governments have started lobbying to get funding

for projects, putting high-level CCP officials on alert.

Local governments don’t treat urbanization as reform,

but simply as last their chances to expand investment.

Since there has always been much controversy

around China’s urbanization policy,

experts say it’s a wise choice if Li Keqiang made

the decision to postpone urbanization.

University of South Carolina Professor Xie Tian:

“The delay of the urbanization program should be correct.

Artificially mandatory urbanization is not consistent with

the natural law of economic development.

Blind urbanization might undermine agricultural development,

and also destroy the social structure of cities and towns.”

China’s internal media also reported on May 24 that medium

and long-term urbanization planning might be updated,

focusing on suppressing local government’s investment impulse.

Local government’s lobbying for investment is due to

urbanization being considered as the greatest potential

for expanding domestic demand.

In 2008, the CCP launched a 4 trillion yuan ($650 billion)

stimulus plan to cope with the global financial crisis,

causing local government’s high debt and soaring house prices.

Since then, the central government strengthened real estate

regulation, resulting in land assets revenue decline

and increased pressure on local government’s debt.

The overseas edition of People’s Daily said on May 27 that

the CCP would not promote a new version of the

4 trillion yuan stimulus plan.

Xie Tian: “It’s because they have seen the huge problems

the stimulus plan brought to China.

Huge and fast development led to uncontrollable inflation.

Chinese people’s anger and hatred have reached the limit.

The CCP knows printing money would increase inflation and

continue to expand the real estate and stock market bubble,

and its political life would end immediately.”

Chinese media call on deepening the reform.

Reuters’ report also stated that

Li Keqiang recently rejected the new urbanization plan brought

up by the National Development and Reform Commission.

Li asks to focus on household registration and land reform.

However experts say the reform is very difficult.

Chief Researcher Gong Shengli of Beijing’s Internal Reference:

“Li Keqiang has made his decision on the residence permit.

With the Hukou system, residence permit and ID card,

there are three IDs for everybody.

The more IDs there are, the higher the cost of life and

the government expenditure of taxpayer’s money.”

Xie Tian: “China’s Hukou system and land issue

are closely related to its political system.

So can the reform be implemented?

If so, to what extent?

Will it be a real reform or just a slogan?

We do not know yet.

If the reform is real, I think it will be on

the same path as the CCP’s collapse.”

China’s first quarter overall economic recovery is weak.

HSBC’s PMI in May also fell below the line of prosperity,

hitting a record low in 7 months.

In order to maintain the economic growth rate,

“new urbanization" is regarded as China’s prime policy

for future economic development.

But the current government seems to worry that

this initiative could lead to greater debt and bubbles.