【新唐人2012年12月31日訊】中共十二屆全國人大一次會議，將於2013年3月5號召開。隨著胡錦濤的「裸退」，溫家寶的「歸隱山林」，延續了十年的「胡溫體制」就此劃上句號。那麼，新任中共領導人習近平手裡，有多少有效權力呢？接下來，看看本臺記者的分析報導。
中共喉舌《新華社》發佈，中共十一屆全國人大常委會第三十次會議，28號敲定了十二屆全國人大一次會議，將於明年3月5號在北京召開，會期將持續兩個星期。
這顯示，中共「十八大」宣佈「裸退」的胡錦濤，將在2013年十二屆全國人大一次會議上徹底退位，習近平將接任中共國家主席一職，執政黨政軍大權。此外，李克強也將接任國務院總理一職，溫家寶將 「歸隱山林」，中共其餘5名政治局常委中的3人，也將分別就任新職。「習李體制」正式啟動。
時事評論員林子旭表示，目前習近平的頭上，明明白白的擺著兩個「太上皇」—-胡錦濤和江澤民。那麼，習近平的手裡，還能剩下多少有效權力呢？
時事評論員林子旭：「這幾天，習近平剛剛頒布了所謂黨風建設的八項規定，江澤民馬上就是響亮的一個耳光，對於習近平的所謂規定熟視無睹。再加上中共歷屆元老以及由太子黨組成的或明或暗的不同勢力，習近平手裡還能剩下多少的有效權力，就不得而知了。」
香港《明報》分析，中共「八名元老」的後代瘋狂斂財，控制的企業股權都是國有資產。他們在中國政壇呼風喚雨，在經濟界神通廣大。中共第五代要想掌好舵、站穩腳跟，最大的對手不是所謂的「刁民」，而是這些富可敵國的紅色權貴。
台灣《中央社》報導，中共人大、政協「兩會」的換屆，人氣頗高的前中共廣東省委書記汪洋，以及國務委員排名第一的劉延東，將有機會接替張德江、王岐山的遺缺，升任副總理。不過，原本在「十八大」晉升政治局常委呼聲頗高，卻只擔任政治局委員的前中共中央組織部部長李源潮，新職務「未卜」。
時事評論員林子旭：「大家看到了像汪洋、李源潮、劉延東這些人，雖然沒有成為常委。但是，他們這個人氣，依然要遠勝過像張高麗、劉雲山這些人。也就是說中共政治局常委的絕對權威，很有可能被打破，上一屆常委中，周永康敢於無視胡錦濤，那麼，今天政治局委員，或許就可以無視像張高麗這樣的弱勢常委。」
林子旭分析，中共內部現在是一盤散沙，中共體制內的官員各懷鬼胎。
時事評論員林子旭：「有的人拚命的想往國外跑﹔有人想趁亂抓權﹔有人為了家族的利益，依然迷信著中共這條破船﹔還有人對中共已經不報甚麼希望了，正在伺機等待一些機會而已。」
不過，似乎有一些人，把對胡溫的期望，無可奈何的又轉向了「習李新政」。
對此，美國「普林斯頓中國學社」執行主席陳奎德分析，最初的「胡溫體制」，也曾試圖給老百姓帶來一絲希望。但是，很快在中共這個強大的體制慣性的支配下，無所作為，陳奎德希望，習近平能夠吸取前車之鑑。
「普林斯頓中國學社」執行主席陳奎德：「這個體制，再按照原來的形式維持下去，已經是不可能了，因此他（習近平）不改也得改，必須要往前走，但是，現在的問題是，他有多大的力量和智慧，能夠把中國導入和世界主流比較相差不遠的這樣一個基本的歷史軌道和秩序，這是擺在他面前的重大任務，希望，他們能看清這個基本的潮流。」
陳奎德表示，重新改弦更張走出一條新的路來，需要極大的政治勇氣和智慧，習近平有沒有充分的勇氣和能力，人們將拭目以待。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/陳建銘
How Much Power Does Xi Jinping Have?
The 12th National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting
will be convened on March, 5th.
After Hu Jintao retires without strings attached and
Wen Jiabao quietly stays in the background,
the Hu-Wen regime has come to an end.
Just how much power has Xi Jinping, the new Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) leader, in his hands then?
Let’s look at the analysis from our station journalists.
The CCP’s state-owned mouthpiece,
Xinhua News Agency, reported that
on Dec. 28, “the thirtieth session of the
Standing Committee of the NPC finalized
the 12th NPC meeting being held in Beijing on March 5, 2013,
with the duration of two weeks.
This shows that Hu Jintao will completely retire in 2013,
during the 12th NPC meeting.
Xi Jinping will take over the post of CCP President,
and will control the party, government, and military.
In addition, Li Keqiang will be the successor to
Premier Wen Jiabao, who will retire at the same time.
Three of the remaining five Politburo Standing Committee
members will take up their new posts.
The “Xi-Li System" will officially begin.
Political commentator Lin Zixu said that obviously, two
“overlords”– Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin” are above Xi Jinping.
Just how much effective power does Xi Jinping have then?
Political commentator Lin Zihu: “In recent days, Xi Jinping
issued the eight provisions for party members.
Jiang Zemin immediately did something to violate
the provisions as if he did not know them.
In addition, the previous patriarch of the CCP and the
princelings from different forces also possess power.
Thus, it is hard to imagine how effective Xi Jinping can be.”
According to a Hong Kong “Ming Pao" analysis, the
offspring of eight veteran officials has control of all state-owned assets.
They are omnipotent in the political arena and
almighty in economic sectors.
The biggest opponents for the fifth generation of
CCP leaders are not the “trouble making citizens” but the rich and powerful royal offspring.
The Taiwan”Central News Agency” reported that
the popular Guangdong Provincial Party Secretary
Wang Yang and the first State Councilor Liu Yandong
will have the opportunity to succeed Zhang Dejiang and
Wang Qishan and become Deputy Prime Ministers.
However, the Political Bureau Standing Committee member
Li Yuanchao, who was popular during the 18th Congress,
only becomes a member of the Politburo Committee.
His new duties are not yet certain.
Lin Zixu: “We can see that people like Wang Yang,
Li Yuanchao, and Liu Yandong,
fail to become members of the Standing Committee.
However, their popularity is still far better than that of
Zhang Gaoli and Liu Yunshan.
This means that the absolute authority of the Central
Politburo Standing Committee is likely to be broken.
In the last session of the Standing Committee,
Zhou Yongkang dared to disrespect Hu Jintao.
Thus, today, the Politburo Committee members
perhaps can ignore the weak Standing Committee members, such as Zhang Gaoli.”
Lin Zixu analyzed that within the CCP, the officials
are like loose sand in a bucket. Everyone has his own plan.
Lin Zixu: “Some people desperately want to run
to a foreign country; some try to seize power;
some want to acquire more wealth for the family
and still believe in the CCP;
some have given up hope towards the CCP and
are waiting for the right opportunities.”
However, it seems that some people had given up the
expectation of the Hu-Wen regime and now have no choice but to turn to the Xi-Li regime.
Chen Kuide, Executive Chairman of Princeton
Chinese Society, believes that
at the beginning of the “Hu -Wen system,”
they tried to bring a glimmer of hope to the people.
But, under the CCP’s powerful system,
they could not accomplish anything.
Chen Kuide hopes that Xi Jinping can
learn something from the past.
Chen Kuide: “It is impossible for this system to continue
to exist according to its original form.
Therefore, Xi Jinping has no choice but to make changes.
He must go forward, but the question now is
how much strength and wisdom he has.
Leading China into the mainstream of the world
which equips with a basic history of the track and order is a huge mission for him.
I hope that our leaders can recognize the trend.”
Chen Kuide thinks that making a fresh start to re-embark on
a new road requires a great deal of political courage and wisdom.
We’ll wait and see whether Xi Jinping has
the courage and ability required for the task.