【新唐人2012年11月2日訊】中美兩國領袖幾乎同時換屆，美國民眾明確知道，自己未來將要面對的是甚麼，但中國民眾還是「摸著石頭過河」。11月1號，英國《金融時報》再從中共高層內部，獲得18大常委新名單。學者指出，中共在選擇領導人時極不透明，黨內派繫在最後階段仍在角力。
據英國《金融時報》報導，近期與中共某高層領導人聯繫密切的一位知情人士，鄭重透露了下一屆中共中央政治局委員的完整名單，而他列出的政治局常委名單，除現任國家副主席習近平，以及現任副總理李克強之外，還有副總理王岐山、現任中共中央組織部部長李源潮、廣東省委書記汪洋、上海市委書記俞正聲和重慶市委書記張德江。
但這位知情人士還表示，名單雖然直接來自中共高層，但黨內派繫在最後階段仍在角力，最終人員構成仍然存在變數。
北京時政觀察人士 華頗：「我想就這兩天事，今天是七中全會開會，在這個會上，誰上誰下，北京敲定。所以現在在這之前，任何放風，都可以信，但是都不會最後確定。」
不過，人們對這份名單有很大爭議。
因為現任上海市委書記俞正聲，再過幾個月就超過了68歲的退休年齡，很多政治觀察家認為，俞正聲入常的機會不大。此外，他的哥哥曾是中共高級情報官，在上世紀80年代還叛逃到了美國。
張德江聲譽也不佳。他曾因掩蓋「薩斯」病情，導致疫情擴散而聲名狼藉，他還下令開槍鎮壓汕尾民眾抗議，他還是宋祖英等人有關上百億「深圳航空收購案」的大後臺。
另外，近期將開審的前鐵道部部長劉志軍案，俞正聲、張德江兩人涉案也很深。同時，俞正聲和張德江還有很濃的「江系色彩」，他們都是「追查迫害法輪功國際組織」名單上的主要迫害責任人。張德江2005年出訪澳洲期間，被法輪功學員以「酷刑罪」告上澳洲紐省高等法院而收到傳票。
時事評論員藍述認為，如果政治局常委仍然有「江系」人馬，中共召開「十八大」後，習近平想進行任何形式的政治改革，都會遭遇來自江系的巨大阻力。
時事評論員 藍述：「這份名單如果是真的話，薄熙來的案件，就不會審判的很重。另外，因為這段時間，整個江系成了千夫所指，在國際、國內社會上，都對江繫在過去十幾年裡面，在中國大陸殘酷鎮壓民眾，有強烈的反彈，江系、特別是政法繫上上下下的官員，在前段時間可以說是如驚弓之鳥。」
不過，日前，中共軍隊的總政治部、總參謀部、總後勤部和總裝備部的部長同時換人，各大軍區和各兵種主官也基本更新完畢。美國中文媒體《大紀元》指出，根據目前軍隊的情況來看，胡錦濤已經完全掌握了軍隊，江系已經徹底垮臺。
北京時政觀察人士華頗指出，現在的局勢很明確，無論是誰進常委，他們都得倒向胡溫，江系已經是大勢已去，日落西山。
但是，「加州大學聖地牙哥分校（University of California, San Diego）」「21世紀的中國」研究專案負責人謝淑麗（Susan Shirk）表示，「中共在選擇領導人時極不透明，沒有任何成文規則，甚至對政治局常委的任期年限都沒有明文規定，因此常委們有權改變整個遊戲。這意味著你有與位高權重者嚴重交惡就有風險，落敗的人甚至有可能採用流氓手段。」
近來，美國《明鏡網》就多次放風聲稱，李源潮被剔除，汪洋入常也沒戲，劉雲山上位，等等。
看來，圍繞著你死我活的中共內鬥，不到最後一刻，誰都不會善罷甘休。
採訪/朱智善 編輯/宋風 後製/薛莉
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CCP Politburo Member List Still Not Set, New Version Again Released
Both the Chinese regime and the U.S. government are
changing leaders almost at the same time.
The difference is that Americans have a better idea of
what they will face in the future, but Chinese don’t know.
On November 1, the British Financial Times published
a new list of officials who will enter the Chinese
Communist Party』s (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee
during the 18th National Congress.
The list is based on the information they got
from within top level CCP leadership.
Scholars pointed out that when the CCP is selecting
the new leadership, its information is extremely opaque.
Now the CCP factions are in the final stages of clashing.
The British Financial Times quoted an insider who has
a close relationship with a CCP senior level official.
The senior official unveiled a complete name list of
the next CCP Politburo Standing Committee.
In the list, other than Xi Jinping, vice chairman,
and Li Keqiang, vice premier, there are
Li Yuanchao, Minister of the CCP Central Organization Dept.,
Wang Yang, CCP Secretary of Guangdong,
Yu Zhengsheng, CCP Secretary of Shanghai
and Zhang Dejiang, CCP Secretary of Chongqing.
The insider said although this list is from the CCP’s senior level,
factions within the CCP are still clashing. So, the final name list may change again.
Hua Po, Beijing current affairs commentator:
”I think the list will be fixed in these two days.
Today the 7th Plenary Meeting takes place.
During the meeting the Beijing regime will decide
who will be promoted and who will be removed.
Until then, all the rumors maybe true.
But none of them can be taken as the final word.”
Regardless, people have different opinions on this list.
In a few months, Yu Zhengsheng, CCP Secretary of Shanghai,
will be over the age of retire, 68 years old.
Many political observers say he has little chance
of entering the Standing Committee.
Moreover, his older brother was a CCP intelligence officer,
but he fled to U.S. in 1980s.
The reputation of Zhang Dejiang isn’t good. He tried to
cover up the SARS virus, influencing the epidemic spread across China.
He ordered to fire suppression of the protesters in Shanwei.
He was also a key supporter in the “Shenzhen Airlines acquisition Case,”
a scandal involving tens of billions of yuan and which
benefitted Jiang Zemin’s mistress, Song Zuying and others.
In addition, Yu Zhengsheng and Zhang Dejiang are involved
in coming trail on former Minister of Railways Liu Zhijun’s case deeply.
Meanwhile, both of them very strongly accord
with the tone of the Jiang Zemin faction.
The World Organization to Investigate the
Persecution of Falun Gong lists them as persons who’ve played major roles in the persecution.
In 2005, Zhang Dejiang received a summons from
the High Court of New South Wales when he visited Australia.
Falun Gong practitioners sued him for the crime of torture.
Political commentator Lan Shu thought that if Jiang’s faction
remains in the Politburo Standing Committee after
the 18th Congress, Xi Jinping will face huge resistance
from Jiang’s faction when he wants to make political reform.
Lan Shu: ”If this name list is true, the punishment on
Bo Xilai will not be heavy.
In addition, the whole Jiang faction is condemned hard these days.
Whether inside China or overseas, people have strongly protested
the brutal suppressions done by Jiang’s faction during
the past ten years in Mainland China.
The past several days have filled officials in Jiang’s faction with worry.
Especially those in the political and legal system,”
However, a few days ago, the directors of the People’s
Liberation Army’s General Political Dept., General Staff Dept.,
General Logistics Dept. and the General Armament Dept.
were changed in the same time.
The commanders of each Military Region as well as different
branches of services are almost finished the changing too.
The U.S. Chinese media “Epoch Times” reported Hu Jintao
appears to already completely control the army,
and the Jiang faction has thoroughly collapsed.
Hua Po, Beijing current affairs commentator
pointed out that the current situation is very clear:
no matter who will enter the Politburo Standing Committee,
he must support Hu-Wen. Jiang’s faction is over and without hope.
Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,
However, Susan Shirk, chair of the 21st Century China
Program, University of California, said:
“The CCP is extremely opaque during its change of leadership.
There’s no written rule.
There’s not even a clear definition on the term of office
of the membership of the Politburo Standing Committee.
That’s the reason why the members can change
the whole game.
It also means you will be in dangerous waters
if you have a bad relationship with the senior CCP leader.
The defeated person may even use rogue means."
Recently, the U.S. “Mirror News" reported
many times that Li Yuanchao was removed,
Wang Yang has no chance to enter the Standing Committee,
Liu Yunshan will enter, etc.
It seems that inside the bitter infighting,
each CCP factions will not stop until the last moment.