【新唐人2012年10月29日訊】總部設在華盛頓的一個智庫，在最新發佈的一份報告中說，從2000到去年，中國有3.79萬億美元資金非法流向境外，並且外流的速度在飛速上升。報告指出，這將對中國社會以及政局的穩定產生不利影響。報告還發現，資金非法外流最常用的手段是一種被稱為「出口偽報」的洗錢技術。
這家設在華盛頓的「全球金融誠信」組織GFI（Global Financial Integrity），專門關注全球跨境的非法資金流向。經組織研究發現，中國非法資金外流正以飛快的速度增長，從2000年的1726億美金增長到去年（2011年）的6029億。綜合GFI曾經發表的與此有關的報告，中國已經成為世界上最受非法資金外流困擾的國家。
報告還發出警告指稱，資金大規模外流將讓中國承受嚴重的後果。其中指出：「如果非法資金外流量持續呈上升趨勢，就無法排除這將對中國社會以及政局的穩定，產生不利影響的可能。」
報告的撰寫者之一戴夫·卡表示：「中國的經濟是一顆已經被定時的炸彈。從長期來看，在如此大規模非法資金外流的條件下，中國的社會、政治以及經濟秩序無法持續。」
北京註冊會計師杜延林解釋說，從經濟的基本原理來說，一個國家的消費和經濟增長都需要資金，資金越在國內市場流通，越能提高投入資金的量。
北京註冊會計師杜延林：「在一個正常國家，大多數消費者或公民他手裡的資金主要是用於消費的，但是如果一個國家，他的收入分配極不均衡，或者有極大差距，在這種情況下，從經濟學的角度，消費肯定不足。第二個，經濟增長是需要投資的，投資需要資金。這個資金如果在國內銀行存放，或者在國內市場上流通的話，他會提高投入資金的量，使得投資不會出現投資不足。」
「全球金融誠信」組織負責人貝克(Raymond Baker)表示：幾十年來，他一直關注全球範圍內的金融犯罪、腐敗和逃稅。而中國非法資金外流的幅度令人震驚。他說，世界上沒有任何其他一個發展中國家或者新興國家像中國這樣，如此大規模的受到非法資金外流的影響。
杜延林認為，資金外流主要有三個管道：貪官，企業家和投資移民。
杜延林：「因為我們知道中國是一個權力社會。只要有權力，就能夠積纍大量財富。所以我相信大量的沒有被揭露出來的人，他的資金都是流入境外的。還有一個管道就是對未來信心不足，有一些企業家，通過借貸，因為通過正常經營收回成本是很難的，那麼他就捲錢離開。這也是一個管道。第三個管道，可能就是我們說的投資移民。」
這份由GFI首席經濟學家撰寫的報告發現，無論是通過金融犯罪、腐敗還是逃稅的手段，大量資金從中國非法流入境外時大多都會依賴一種基於國際貿易的洗錢技術，這種技術也被稱作「出口偽報」，也就是國內出口商安排國外買主超額收費，而後把超額的款項存入國外賬戶。
報告顯示，過去的11年中，中國非法流入境外資金的86.2%，也就是3.2萬億美金都是通過這種辦法流向海外的。「全球金融誠信」聲稱，組織的經濟學家掌握了獨家的關於中國「出口偽報」的信息。將在最新發佈的雜誌中刊登相關內容。
採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/王明宇
USD 3 Trillion Illegal Outflows in China Effect Economic and Political Stability
Recently, Washington DC’s Global Financial Integrity’s
(GFI) Headquarters reported that between 2000 to 2011,
China has USD 3.79 Trillion of illicit financial outflow.
The outflows are said to be rising.
The newly released GFI report stated that it will badly
effect Chinese society, and the countries political stability.
The report said that a common form of illegal outflow
is money laundering, known as “trade mis-invoicing”.
Washington DC-based GFI specializes in focusing
on the global cross-border illicit outflows.
GFI discovered that China’s illicit
outflows are increasing sharply.
It has increased from USD 172.6 Billion
in 2000, to USD 602.9 Billion in 2011.
Past studies observed such massive outflows are making
China the Worlds largest victim of illicit financial outflows.
The report warns that such massive outflows
will have serious ramifications for China.
The report said that “if outflows continue to ratchet
upwards, adverse repercussions on social and political stability can’t be ruled out.”
Dr. Dev Kar, one of the authors of this report:
“The Chinese economy is a ticking time bomb.”
Social, political and economic order isn’t sustainable
in the long-run, given such massive illicit outflows.”
Du Yanlin, a Beijing Chartered Accountant said
that basic economic theory tells us that consumption and economic growth need funds.
The more flow of funds within the home market,
the more investment can be increased.
Du Yanlin: “In a normal country, the majority
of consumers have money in hand to spend.
However, in a country where incomes are
uneven or there is a great gap existing, consumption is certainly insufficient.
In addition, economic growth needs
investment, which in turn needs money.
If money is deposited in banks, or flowing within the domestic
market, investment will grow, and won’t lack funds to invest.”
Raymond Baker, Director of GFI said that he’s studied
proceeds from crime, corruption and tax evasion for decades.
Raymond Baker: “The magnitude of illicit
money flowing out of China is astonishing.
There’s no other developing or emerging
economy that even comes close to suffering as much in illicit financial outflows.”
Du Yanlin believes that there are three channels for money
outflows: corrupt officials, entrepreneurs and immigrants.
Du Yanlin: “As we know, in China, power is above all.
If you have power, you can accumulate
a huge amount of properties.
I believe that a lot of people have not been
exposed yet whose money are all outflows.
There is another channel that is lack
of confidence for the future in China.
Some entrepreneurs have borrowed money,
then escaped, as it is difficult to recover the cost via normal operations.
This is one of the channels that is causing outflows.
The third channel is immigrants’ investment.”
The report conducted by GFI Lead Economist, stated
that with illegal outflows from China, which are
proceeds of crime, corruption and tax evasion,
were largely due to a trade-based money laundering.
This is a technique known as “trade mis-invoicing.”
That is, domestic exporters arrange foreign buyers
to overcharge, then the overcharged amount will be deposited in the sellers』 foreign bank account.
The report shows that in the past 11 years, 86.2% of the total
illicit outflows, or USD 3.2 Trillion has been removed this way.
GFI said that “trade mis-invoicing” figures were
provided exclusively to “The Economist” magazine.
It published the figures in the latest edition.