【新唐人2012年10月22日訊】十八大越走越近，「死保十八大召開」已成為中共頭等政治任務。最近有中共維穩系統官員透露，「從來沒有開過一次如此緊張的大會」。全國各地天羅地網式的維穩系統已經啟動，各級官員也被要求在十八大會議期間不得隨意出國。而北京10多個所謂「敏感地區」也將增加急救車以防意外。這一切矛頭，究竟是對準老百姓，還是黨內激烈權鬥所導致？一起來聽聽專家分析。

有海外中文媒體報導，為了「保衛十八大」，大陸各地維穩系統已經啟動，軍隊、武警也進入戒備狀態，十八大期間，當局要求所有軍官停止休假，幹部在非緊急情況下不得出國，甚至不得前往港澳臺。

美國「喬治梅森大學」教授 章天亮：「我感覺十八大之後，中共官場可能會經歷更大的一場清洗，就是江派人物可能都會被清洗，這樣的話，他們有可能趁著暴風雨沒有來之前就趕緊跑掉。所以在這種情況下，就不讓這些江派的人馬出國，但是很難講誰是江派的、或不是江派的，所以乾脆大家就誰也別出國。」

報導還說，中共十八大安保小組的第一號人物，既不是政法委書記周永康，也不是副書記王樂泉、孟建柱。至於到底是誰，報導並沒有提及。

「權利運動」發起人胡軍：「整個政法委系統的話，還有610辦公室覆蓋了全國，政法、國保一塊是全國的，他們做惡的話是連貫性的，這次肯定有一個高層的換位，還有一個大的清洗過程，所以這個比以往更加慘烈一點，因為（政法委）這麼多年幹的禍害中國老百姓的事情太多了。他們自己也心知肚明。」

報導還引述中共維穩官員的話表示，這次「保衛十八大」的陣勢就像打仗一樣，空前緊張，因為這將是一個「不團結的大會」。

章天亮：「他肯定是越來越緊張，沒辦法嘛，民怨越來越大了，這樣一個機制，只能是積纍民怨，而不能疏導民怨，就是說，他可能一次比一次更緊張，當時2008年奧運會的時候，採取了一種極端的安保策略，那麼後來這樣的安保策略就變成常態化了、日常化了。」

另外，據《京華時報》報導，17號，「北京紅十字會」召開有關十八大安全維穩會議。據介紹，十八大期間，所有工作人員將停休，實行24小時值班制。每天130個急救站、600多名工作人員、200多輛急救車將全部在崗。包括天安門、午門、奧林匹克公園、鳥巢水立方在內的10多個所謂「敏感重點地區」，將增派急救人員與車輛。

分析普遍認為，「保衛十八大」的壓力，主要有兩方面：一方面來自群眾，因為中共造成的冤假錯案太多，大量冤民想上訪。當局可能需要動用警力來鎮壓，甚至會造成流血事件。而一方面則是周永康想趁機利用民眾，作為內鬥的籌碼。

章天亮：「現在中央整個是分裂的，周永康這派的話希望搞一些事，然後也希望鎮壓，希望有一些民變，然後他們就鎮壓，這樣顯示他們維穩所在的必要性嘛。對於胡溫習來講，肯定是不希望出現這些事情，但是呢，防患於未然。」

每一次中共的權力交接都伴隨著非常血腥的自相殘殺，各派之間的絞殺以及拚搏撕咬，殘忍程度超乎外界想像。

美國「民主大學」校長唐柏橋：「現在中共這些領導人，人人都像『薄熙來』，人人都懷疑他們手下有『王立軍』，人人都懷疑哪一天會東窗事發。所以就非常緊張，草木皆兵。他們再這樣下去，我們甚麼都不需要做，他們就會把自己搞下去。」

據報導，9月底，北京的安保處於最高警戒狀態，約2萬武警已進入二級戰備，武器彈藥出庫，隨時準備應付突發狀況。

採訪/朱智善 編輯/王子琦 後製/孫寧

Why Does CCP Protect “Most Tense National Congress in History” At All Costs?

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

18th Congress is getting closer.

Protecting the conference at all costs

has become the top political task of CCP.

Recently, there』s a CCP official responsible

for maintaining stability commented that,

“the CCP has never had so tense a conference before”.

Dragnet-style maintaining stability

has been launched across China.

All officials at different levels are required

to stay in China during the 18th Congress.

At the same time, there are now ten designated

“sensitive areas” where ambulances will be deployed to prevent accidents.

Are these measures preparing for Chinese citizens,

or preparing for potential fighting between the CCP factions?

Let』s hear from our experts!

Some overseas Chinese media reported that in order

to the “protect 18th Congress”,

a system to maintain stability has been launched

across China.

The army and armed police are now on a status

of emergency.

During the conference, the regime has asked all military

officials to not have vacation,

and other officials cannot leave China,

which even includes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.

Only under exceptional, emergency cases will it be allowed.

Zhang Tianliang, a professor at George Mason University,

U.S.: “I think that the CCP leadership will initiate larger actions after the conference, removing Jiang』s faction.

If this is true, then Jiang』s faction

will flee before the storm.

Under this kind of situation, however, the CCP will not

allow the officials from Jiang』s faction to leave China.

But it』s hard to say who is in Jiang』s faction, and who isn』t.

Then, it』s a case of all CCP officials aren』t allowed to leave.”

The report also said that the leader of this protection team

for the 18th Congress isn』t Zhou Yongkang, Secretary of the Central Political and Legislative Committee.

It is also not Wang Lequan, the Deputy Secretary,

nor is it the Deputy Meng Jianzhu.

The however, did not state who the leader of the team is.

Hu Jun, founder of Human Rights Campaign:

“The Political and Legislative Committee and 610 offices are everywhere in China.

The Political & Legislative Committee and the

National Security control the whole of China.

Their evil is encompassing.

This time, the CCP leadership is changing. As well having

a process of cleansing, the struggle will be more tragic.

The Political and Legislative Committee have hurt so many

people over the years, and officials know this very well.”

The report also quoted an official who

is responsible for stability maintenance.

The situation to “protect the 18th Congress” is like a war.

The whole atmosphere is unprecedented tense.

The conference will not be a “congress of unity”.

Zhang Tianliang: “It must be more and tenser.

There』s no solution because people』s

grievances have become bigger and bigger.

The system can only accumulate the grievances.

It has not mechanism to release grievances, which

means the situation only can get more and more tense.

Like the Beijing Olympic Games in 2008, the CCP

have deployed an extreme security strategy.

Later on, this extreme strategy became the daily situation.”

Moreover, “Beijing Times” reported that Beijing Red Cross

held a stability meeting for 18th Congress on October 17.

It required all staff to return from vacation, and asks

them to work in a 24 hour shifts during the Congress.

Everyday, all of the 130 emergency stations, with over

600 staff and over 200 ambulances, must be active.

There are more than ten 『sensitive areas』.

These include Tiananmen Square, Wumen, the Olympic park,

the Birds Nest Stadium and the Water Cube,

which will deploy more emergency workers and vehicles.

Analysts considered that the pressure on

the 18th Congress come mainly from two factors.

One is from the people, because there are

too many miscarriages of justice, and there are too many innocent people wanting to petition.

The regime may need a police force to

suppress them, which may see bloodshed.

The other factor is Zhou Yongkang, who may

use this as chance to fight his rival CCP faction, by using the people as a bargaining chip.

Zhang Tianliang: “Now the CCP central

committee is completely split.

Zhou Yongkang』s faction wants to show

the necessity of stability maintenance.

So they may make a civil protest, then suppress it.

For Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, they will

not want this kind of thing to happen.

So they will take action to prevent it.”

Every CCP』s power transfer is accompanied

with a very bloody killing of the other faction.

Each faction will strangulate and fight the other.

The brutality is terrible, which

overseas observers can』t imagine.

Tang Baiqiao, President of Democracy University:

“Currently, each of the CCP leaders is like Bo Xilai.

Each of them questions whether

there』s a Wang Lijun in their team.

Each of them questions if there』s one day

their evil actions will be exposed.

That』s the reason why everybody is tense,

and anybody can be an enemy in their eyes.

If they continue to behave like this,

we don』t need do anything.

Just see how they destroy themselves.”

According to the report, the security level in Beijing

was already at it』s highest level by the end of September.

About 20,000 armed police are in the

second level of combat readiness.

The have weaponry and munitions, and are

prepared to fight when anything unexpected happens.