【新唐人2012年9月18日訊】中共即將在18大上交接最高權力，重組中央政治局常委。而對於中共至關重要的軍隊最高領導層——中央軍委，也將面臨大換血。高達7成的軍委委員因為超齡將退休，其中很多重要位置很可能將由「太子黨」接任。有評論認為，「紅二代」全面執掌軍隊，有助於即將接班中共最高權力的習近平鞏固地位。
現任中央軍委成員中，軍委副主席郭伯雄、徐才厚，國防部長梁光烈，總參謀長陳炳德，總政治部主任李繼耐，總後勤部長廖錫龍，二炮司令員靖志遠，海軍司令員吳勝利等人，都已超過67歲。在即將到來的軍委換屆中，他們很可能會因超齡而退出中央軍委。據傳，現任軍委成員中，只有空軍司令員許其亮（62歲）和總裝備部長常萬全（63歲）將留任。軍委換血將達7成。
可望進入新一屆中央軍委的大多是中共建政以後出生的中壯派將領。目前呼聲較高的有：北京軍區司令員房峰輝，總後勤部政委劉源，二炮政委張海陽，副總參謀長馬曉天、孫建國、章沁生、魏鳳和，瀋陽軍區司員張又俠等人。
這些有望接掌軍隊最高權力的將領，很多都是中共元老和領導人的第二代。例如，劉源是中國前國家主席劉少奇之子﹔張海陽，中央軍委前副主席張震之子﹔馬曉天，是解放軍政治學院前教育長馬載堯之子，馬曉天岳父是解放軍前中紀委副書記張少華﹔張又俠，是中共前將領張宗遜之子。
而剛剛被提拔為上將軍銜的「國防大學」政委劉亞洲，則是中共前國家主席李先念的女婿，劉亞洲父親劉建德是八路出身。海軍政委劉曉江，是中共前總書記胡耀邦的女婿，老紅軍劉海濱之子。他們都屬於「紅二代」將領。
最近一段時間，因為薄熙來密謀奪權事件的衝擊，軍隊一再宣誓支持中共總書記胡錦濤。現在，「紅二代」將全面執掌軍隊，而支持處罰薄熙來、即將接掌中共最高權力的習近平，也是太子黨出身，並且，據傳習近平與劉源等人關係密切。因此，有分析認為，軍方變動事關中共權鬥。
美「哥倫比亞大學」職工 藏人瑪交巴塔：「中共最害怕就是發生政變。軍隊要放自己的人才放心。它讓軍隊聽話，現在不聽話的人很多。歸根到底就是為了保住共產黨的政權。」
時政評論員文昭則向《新唐人》表示，歷史原因造成目前有機會晉升中央軍委、年齡在60歲左右的中共高級將領，確實基本都是太子黨。
時政評論員文昭：「他們20歲左右走向社會，從學校出來工作的時候，大約是70年代。這個時間點，其實對於當時這些中共領導官員的子女來講，他並沒有太多的出路。那個時候基本就是從軍。」
文昭指出，最近幾十年中共軍隊沒有經過大的戰爭，陞遷就是靠關係、論資排輩。軍中太子黨因為體制內優勢，自然要比平民軍官陞遷快。文昭認為，在現行軍隊體制中，思想開明、業務能力強的軍官很容易被邊緣化，因此下屆軍委很難有甚麼新意。
文昭：「軍隊體系的維持和整個中共體系的維持，本質上沒有兩樣。它主要是靠體制內的關係網絡，和建立在這個網絡上的利益來維持的。個別某些人有些特別的觀點，能不能帶來甚麼改變，我都不報這個希望。」
在此之前有報導說，馬曉天有望接任空軍司令員，潛艇部隊出身的孫建國可望接掌海軍，二炮出身的魏鳳和可能接任二炮司令員。劉源、張海陽、張又俠、章沁生等人則有望執掌四總部，其中劉源接任總政治部主任的呼聲最高。
採訪/常春 編輯/李謙 後製/君卓
Chinese Communist Party Princelings In Power of Central Military Commission
The upcoming 18th National Congress of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) will see a reshuffle.
The top leadership of the CCP’s Central Military
Commission (CMC) also faces big changes.
70% of CMC leaders will retire, and are likely
to be replaced by the generation of Princelings.
Commentators say the Princelings’ succession in the army
helps Xi Jinping solidify his position as the next leader.
The majority of incumbent CMC
members are all over the age of 67.
The list includes CMC Vice Chairmen Guo Boxiong and
Xu Houcai. Defense Minister Liang Guanglie;
Chen Bingde, Chief of People’s Liberation
Army (PLA) General Staff Headquarters;
Li Jinai, Chief of the PLA General Political Department;
Liao Xilong, Chief of PLA General Logistics Department;
Jing Zhiyuan, Commander of PLA 2nd Artillery Force;
and Navy Commander Wu Shengli.
Only two current CMC members will remain their seats.
They are Air Force Commander Xu Qiliang, aged 60,
and Chief of PLA General Armament Department, Chang Wanquan, aged 63.
That means, 70% CMC members will be replaced.
The new generation of CMC leadership expectedly
consists of middle-aged generals who were born after 1949.
The leading candidates are Fang Fenghui,
Commander of Beijing Military Region;
Liu Yuan, Political Commissar of PLA
General Logistics Department;
Zhang Haiyang, Political Commissar
of PLA 2nd Artillery Force;
Deputy Chiefs of PLA General Staff Headquarters,
which include Ma Xiaotian, Sun Jianguo, Zhang Qinsheng and Wei Fenghe;
It also includes Commander of Shenyang
Military Region Zhang Youxia.
Most of these new CMC leaders-in-waiting
are children of the CCP veterans and top leaders.
This includes Liu Yuan, son of former
CCP President Liu Shaoqi;
Zhang Haiyang, son of former
CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Zhen;
Ma Xiaotian, son of Ma Zaiyao, and former
Director of Education at PLA Political Academy;
Zhang Youxia, son of former General Zhang Zongxun.
The new General Liu Yazhou is the son-in-law
of Li Xiannian, former CCP President.
Liu Yazhou is the current Political Commissar
of the PLA National Defense University.
Liu Yazhou’s father joined the CCP-led Eighth Route Army.
Navy Political Commissar Liu Xiaojiang is the son-in-law
of Hu Yaobang, former CCP General Secretary.
Liu Xiaojiang’s father joined the CCP’s Red Army.
Since Bo Xilai’s plot to seize central power was exposed,
the military has repeatedly sworn it’s support for Hu Jintao.
Now the children of CCP revolutionaries
are expected to hold power in army.
CCP President-in-waiting Xi Jinping, who supports
the punishment of Bo Xilai, is also a Princeling.
Sources said that Xi Jinping has close ties
with Liu Yuan, and some other generals.
Analysts believe that the armies reshuffle
is linked to the CCP’s top-level infighting.
Chopathar Wayemache, Tibetan staff, Columbia University:
“Coups are what the CCP fear most. So it always appoints their reliable persons to control the army.
Currently, lots of army men are disobedient.
So, all in all, the CCP wants to keep its regime.”
Critic Wen Zhao says that historical reasons created
chances for the princelings of CMC leaders-to-be.
Wen Zhao: “They graduated from school
at about 20 years old, in around the 1970s.
In that era, for the children of CCP senior leaders,
they didn’t have other way outs but to join the army.”
Wen Zhao remarks that in recent decades,
the CCP army has not been involved in big wars.
Promotion inside the army all depends
on relationships, or by seniority.
Owning advantages inside the CCP system,
the princelings in the army could get faster promotions compared to ordinary officers.
Wen Zhao says that in the CCP-ruled army, open-minded
and capable officers are easily marginalized.
Therefore, new CCP army leadership is not
expected to present any innovation.
Wen Zhao: “In essence, there’s no difference
in preserving the army system and the CCP system.
The systems are mainly reliant on internal networks,
of personal connections and network-derived interests.
I’m don’t think that some individuals’ special
views could trigger changes in the CCP.”
Earlier on, the media reported that Ma Xiaotian
might take over as Air Force Commander;
Sun Jianguo might be the new Navy chief, and Wei Fenghe
is likely to replace the PLA 2nd Artillery Force Commander.
It was speculated that Liu Yuan, Zhang Haiyang,
Zhang Youxia and Zhang Qinsheng might take the helm of the four PLA General Departments.
Liu Yuan was reportedly top of list of to-be-leaders, to take
the seat as the Chief of PLA General Political Department.