【新唐人2012年8月18日訊】中共總理溫家寶8月14號現身浙江，胡錦濤16號也在北京露面。外界認為，確定18大人事安排的「北戴河會議」已經結束，而「會期短」，是胡錦濤有意弱化的結果。不過，學者認為，今年北戴河會議會期短，是因為薄王事件導致習近平與胡溫聯盟，他們掌握了主導權後使得事情簡化。但這種黑社會性質的暗箱操作，對中國的發展和對老百姓卻是不利的。

中共高層一直有在北戴河「邊度暑假邊舉行重要會議」的慣例，雖然它不是制度性的會議，但非常重要，很多次涉及中共重要人事的安排，就是在北戴河會議上確定的。在某種意義上，它的重要性超越了「中全會」和「全代會」。

據查證，自8月1號至13號，中共中央高層就很少在媒體上露面，外界紛紛猜測是由於中共高層正在進行「北戴河會議」，確定十八大領導層換屆的最終細節，並決定如何對原重慶市委書記薄熙來以及他所引發的政治醜聞做出結論。

直到8月14號，溫家寶才現身浙江調研經濟情況，胡錦濤16號也在北京接見了哥斯達黎加總統。

時事評論員傑森認為，溫家寶、胡錦濤的露面，說明「北戴河會議」已經結束，中共18大人事安排應該已經完畢，對薄熙來處理也定了調。今年的「北戴河會議」預期遠比外界預計的時間短，是因為高層內部早就達成了協定，今年的會議其實只是走形式。

時事評論員傑森：「當薄熙來這個事情出來以後，中間有一段權力內部的鬥爭、均衡、妥協、達成協議這個過程。在這個過程中，其實已經把主要的權力站位都已經定好了，特別是谷開來這時候被審，其實已經把薄熙來未來反彈的可能性，也都打倒了。」

外界普遍認為，「北戴河會議」對所謂的中共「元老」來說更加重要，因為他們希望繼續影響權力交接。所以，這次會議在還沒有開始前，外界就有評論說，當代黨內「元老」——江澤民等，將在會議上影響18大常委的人事安排，以及對薄熙來的處理。

日本《朝日新聞》英文版也報導說，薄熙來的父親薄一波對江澤民躍身到權力巔峰功不可沒，而薄熙來在1999年8月對視察的江澤民，不惜使用文革時期張貼「領導人大幅頭像」的做法獻媚，江澤民也對薄熙來的日後快速陞遷起到了絕對作用。

可是，今年的「北戴河會議」全程才十天左右，《法新社》甚至評論，「北戴河會議」的重要性在現任最高領導人胡錦濤的統治下已經弱化。

時事評論員藍述指出，外界普遍認為，因為中共各方利益集團之間的鬥爭錯綜複雜，預計今年中共第四代向第五代交接過程，需要比較長的時間，但是事實上相反。藍述說，這並不是胡錦濤有意弱化的結果，完全是由於今年的「薄王事件」造成的。

時事評論員藍述：「第一就是整個江系的力量受到了致命的打擊，再加上江澤民本人的健康並不是很好，所以整個江系沒有太多討價還價的餘地，第二方面，胡溫在過去的大半年裡面，成功掌握黨內高層和軍隊的主導權；第三，由於薄王事件曝出來周永康和薄熙來之間有政變的計劃，所以說，造成了習近平和胡溫的全面結盟。」

藍述認為，習近平和胡溫結盟以後，整體上掌握了主導權，所以大的問題在會議上很快就定了。

不過，傑森認為，中共以這種黑社會化的權鬥方式、通過暗箱操作，完成權力交替，並非正常的執政方式。他說，中共的存在，對於中國和中華民族就是危害。

採訪/陳漢 編輯/宋風 後製/鍾元

Weakening Beidaihe Meetings: Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao Control 18th National People’s Congress

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao appeared at Zhejiang on

August 14, and Hu Jintao appeared in Beijing on the 16.

Observers believe that the Beidaihe Meetings

have already ended.

The last short meetings are the result

of Hu Jintao’s intention to weaken it’s importance.

However, scholars believe Beidaihe meetings

are short this year because the Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun events lead to the alliance of Xi Jinping and Hu Jintao.

After these events, Xi and Hu gained leading power.

The nature of this mafia-like, shady operation

is very detrimental to Chinese people.

It is detrimental to the development of China.

High level Communist Party officials always have the habit

of holding important meetings at the prime summer retreat location at Beidaihe.

Although these meetings do not have

an administrative nature, they are important.

They involve arrangements of key CCP members.

In some senses, their importance surpasses that

of the Plenary Sessions and the National People’s Congress.

According to investigations, from August 1 to August 13,

high level CCP leaders rarely appeared on media.

Observers speculated that this was due to the fact

that the Beidaihe Meetings were in progress.

The final details of the 18th National People』s Congress

(NPC) leadership exchanges were being confirmed.

Conclusions relating to former Chongqing party

secretary Bo Xilai’s political scandal were also been made.

Wen Jiabao did not appear in Zhejiang to survey

its economic conditions until August 14.

Hu Jintao met with the Costa Rican president on August 16.

Current affairs commentator Jason Ma believes Wen Jiabao

and Hu Jintao’s appearances mean the Beidaihe meetings have already ended.

As for how to handle Bo Xilai,

a conclusion has also been reached.

This year’s Beidaihe meetings are shorter than predicted

by the outside world because high level members are there as a matter of formality.

Jason Ma: “After the Bo Xilai events broke, there was internal

power struggles in the middle during the entire process of balancing, compromising and reaching an agreement.

In reality, during this process, the main points of power

distribution had already been set.

This was especially so after having

Gu Kailai on trial at this time.

In reality, it has already impacted the possibility

of Bo Xilai rebounding in the future.”

The outside world widely believes the Beidaihe meetings

are more important to so-called CCP chief figures.

This is because they hope to continue

to influence exchange of power exchange.

Before the meetings started, outside commentators said that

chief leaders of this generation, such as Jiang Zemin,

will influence the arrangement of the 18th NPC personnel.

They will also influence the way Bo Xilai is dealt with.

The Asahi Shimbun reported that Bo Xilai’s father, Bo Yibo

had contributed greatly to Jiang Zemin’s rise to power.

The way Bo Xilai used large portraits in August 1999 to flatter

Jiang Zemin, as was done during the Cultural Revolution, have absolutely affected his later promotion.

However, this year’s Beidaihe meetings

only lasted a total of about ten days.

AFP News Agency even commented that the power

of the Beidaihe meetings have weakened under the current leadership of Hu Jintao’s rule.

Current affairs commentator Lan Shu points out that

the outside world widely believes that because of complicated struggles between various CCP factions,

it is predicted this year’s exchange will take longer.

In reality, it is the opposite.

Lan Shu says this is not because Hu Jintao

intentionally tried to weaken it’s importance.

It is entirely caused by the Bo-Wang affair.

Lan Shu: “First of all, the entire Jiang Zemin

faction has received a fatal blow.

On top of this, Jiang Zemin’s health is not very good, so the

entire Jiang faction does not have leeway to negotiate.

Secondly, in the past six months, Hu and Wen

were in control of the high level party and military leadership.

Thirdly, due to the exposure of the Bo-Wang affair,

and revealing the Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai coup plan,

it has created an all round alliance between Xi Jinping

and Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao.”

Lan Shu believes that after Xi Jingping and Hu-Wen

formed an alliance, they took the overall leadership.

Major issues were thus settled quickly at the meetings.

However, Jason Ma believes this type of mafia-like power

struggle method,

where power exchanges are achieved through

shady operations, are an abnormal governing style.

He says the existence of the CCP

endangers both China and its people.