【新唐人2012年8月17日訊】中共國務院總理溫家寶，已經離開十八大之前的重要會議——「北戴河會議」，8月14號現身浙江。分析指出，溫家寶去浙江實際上是救火，解救浙江出現的經濟危機，但是浙江的問題，實際上是中國整個經濟問題的一個縮影，對於溫家寶來說，也是一籌莫展，不會有甚麼好的所謂「良策」。

8月14號至15號，中共國務院總理溫家寶到浙江省杭州、湖州、嘉興等地，調研經濟運行情況。在考察時溫家寶強調說，「要清醒的看到，經濟趨穩的基礎還不牢固，經濟困難可能還會持續一段時間。」

浙江是以中小民營企業為主的經濟體系，因為有政府的支持，中國的私營經濟在浙江最為活躍、發達。

但是，近來，大陸央行發出警告，要防範不良貸款規模上升，可能導致的金融系統性風險。據了解，今年（2012年）6月末，商業銀行不良貸款餘額4528億元，比年初增加287億元，呈現不良貸款餘額增加的趨勢，個別商業銀行不良貸款率也開始上升。

此外，《財經》雜誌也發表文章警告，6月末浙江溫州市不良貸款餘額181億，第二波危機正在醞釀。

自去年9月以來，在溫州形成的一場企業債務多米諾骨牌效應，在一年之後，雖然部分危局有所緩解，但是溫州仍然受困於債務危機後遺症，更多隱患相繼暴露出來。

旅美學者程曉農表示，浙江現在主要面臨的最大麻煩就是金融危機，上一次中共利用銀行，讓企業向銀行大量借錢，把08年以後的金融危機，減到了比較低的程度。

旅美學者程曉農：「實際上是種下了非常嚴重的禍根，其實去年這個時候，麻煩已經開始出來了，地方政府借了大量的錢以後，是還不掉的，企業借了這些錢以後，很多人也不是正常經營，而是拿去炒房子，炒其他的東西，去投機去了，現在房地產市場維持不下去了，那麼很自然的企業就面臨崩盤。」

據《騰訊財經》報導，自去年（2011年）4月江南皮革董事長黃鶴失蹤以來，溫州民企老闆「跑路事件」愈演愈烈，已有近40名老闆不知所蹤。僅9月一個月，就有接近20起，甚至在中秋之夜出現多個老闆集體出逃。甚至有「溫州老闆跑路清單」在微博上被火熱傳播。

美國「紐約城市大學」經濟學教授陳志飛認為，在中國現在的經濟條件下，民營企業的生存受到了很大的壓抑，他們想通過銀行貸款投資房地產，來保存他們自己的生存機會，在整個房地產突然滑坡的情況下，一些投資房地產的小型業主，還不起貸款就跑路，從溫州老闆大批跑路事件可以看出，欠債的數字非常巨大。

美「紐約城市大學」經濟學教授陳志飛：「逼迫這些老闆不得已鋌而走險，現在在整個房地產危機的情況下，這個矛盾也顯得很尖銳，銀行對此也確實沒有良策可以應對，只能是在銀行的貸款，對這些企業主進行更加嚴格的調查，所以造成業主的生存環境顯得更加嚴峻。」

報導還指出，溫州的民間放貸全國有名，溫州老闆跑路該不該怪高利貸，又是誰讓溫州變成了高利貸之城？是溫州人貪婪，還是中國金融體制？或者是央行緊縮政策？我們需要認清真相。

程曉農：「中國（共）政府一直不想承認這個事實，現在溫家寶去，只不過是去滅這個他長期以來一直不想面對的麻煩，但是，恐怕這一回不像以往那樣那麼好應付了，因為它涉及的是銀行的命脈，銀行如果要想保住不垮，就只好收銀根，這是浙江現在所面臨的局面。銀行拚命的催債，一催就垮一片企業。」

陳志飛認為，浙江的許多問題，實際上是中國整個經濟問題的一個縮影，溫家寶想去救火也是一籌莫展，不會有甚麼好的良策。

採訪編輯/常春 後製/薛莉

Wen Jiabao Left Beidaihe and Went to Zhejiang in a Rush.

There’s A Hidden Secret Behind This

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao left Beidaihe Meeting,

the important event before the 18th National Congress He showed up in Zhejiang on August 14th.

Analyst pointed out the reason why Wen Jiabao went to

Zhejiang is to solve an emergency economic crisis.

Actually the Zhejiang issue is the microcosm of

the whole Chinese economy.

Wen Jiabao is unable to do anything and

will not have a good solution to handle it.

Between August 14th and 15th, the Chinese premier Wen

Jiabao visited many cities in Zhejiang province.

These including Hangzhou, Huzhou, Jiaxing, so he could

investigate the economic operation.

Wen Jiabao emphasized during the investigation: ”We should

be clear that the foundation to stabilize the economy.

It isn’t stable and economic difficulty

may continue for a while.”

The economy system in Zhejiang is based on small and

medium-sized private enterprises.

With support from local governments, Zhejiang’s private

economy is one of the most active and developed in China.

However, China central bank warned to take precautions

against increased non-performing loans which may put the economy system into risk.

At the end of June 2012, the balance of non-performing loans

of the commercial banks was 452.8billion RMB,

which is 28.7Billion more than last year.

The trend of the non-performing loans is increasing.

The non-performing loan ratios of some commercial banks

are increasing too.

In addition, the “Finance" magazine published an article

which said

the balance of the non-performing loans in

Wenzhou city was 18.1billion at the end of June;

the second wave of economy crisis is generating.

Since last September, the corporate debt formed a domino

effect in Wenzhou.

One year later, although part of the crisis has improved,

the aftermath of the debt crisis is still trapped Wenzhou.

At the same time, more and more hidden crises came to

the surface, one after another.

Cheng Xiaonong, a Chinese-American scholar said

the most difficulty that Zhejiang faced is economy crisis.

In 2008, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) spoke to the

banks lending much money to enterprises which reduced the economy crisis to a low level.

Cheng Xiaonong: “In fact, it created very serious troubles.

Starting from one year ago, the troubles started to show.

Local governments borrowed a lot of money

but couldn’t Return it.

The enterprises borrowed money but spent it on

the real estate market or doing other speculating.

Now the real estate market can’t make profit,

then those enterprises are facing collapse.”

According to the report of “Tencent Finance”, there are nearly

40 entrepreneurs who disappeared from the public

since Huang He, the board chairman of Jiangnan Leather

disappeared in April 2011.

Nearly 20 of them disappeared last September. On the night

of the Mid-Autumn festival, several entrepreneurs fled.

Even the microblogs spread a “Disappeared Wenzhou

Entrepreneurs List”.

Chen Zhifei, an economy professor of the New York City

University thought that under the current Chinese economy,

there is big oppression on the private enterprises.

They used the loans to invest in the real estate in order to

survive but the real estate market suddenly shrank.

Some small entrepreneurs lost the investment in the market,

and couldn’t return the loan and had to flee.

We can see the debts are enormous from the large number of

Wenzhou entrepreneurs who disappeared.

Chen Zhifei: “They were forced to flee. Under the current

real estate market crisis, the contradiction is very sharp.

Banks have no good solution. They can only have stricter

investigations when they release any loan.

This made the surviving environment for the

private enterprises more difficult.”

The Tencent report also pointed out that the civil loan

in Wenzhou is very famous.

Maybe it is the reason that led the entrepreneurs to flee.

But who changed Wenzhou into a city of usury?

Is it because the Wenzhou people are greedy?

Or is it because of the Chinese financial system?

Or is it because of the tightening policy?

We need to know the truth.

Cheng Xiaonong: “The CCP doesn’t want to admit the fact.

Now Wen Jiabao is there to handle the issue,

which he doesn’t want to face. This time, it will not be easy

to handle because it is related to the root of the banks.

The Banks have to tighten up monetary policy to survive,

which is the current situation in Zhejiang.

The Banks tried their best to collect the debt payment,

but the economy will collapse if it pays back the debt.”

Chen Zhifei said in fact, the issues Zhejiang has is the

microcosm of the entire Chinese economy.

Wen Jiabao is unable to do anything even he wants to

solve the issues, and he will not have any good solutions.