【新唐人2012年8月7日訊】中國大陸國家副主席習近平5號在北戴河露面，港臺媒體紛紛揣測，北戴河會議距登場不遠。不過評論家指出，北戴河會議可能已經開始了，不過會議結果能否帶來變革，還要畫一個大問號。
隨著中共高層陸續在避暑勝地北戴河亮相，港臺媒體不斷揣測北戴河會議召開的日期。5號晚上，《中央電視臺》報導，習近平在北戴河會見參加暑期休假活動的專家和基層人才。台灣《中央社》認為，這項報導顯示，「北戴河會議」即將登場。
但時事評論家伍凡指出，中共向來透明度不高，放出這樣的報導，可能意味著「北戴河會議」已經開始了。
時事評論家伍凡：「往往是北戴河（會議）開完了以後啊，才會公布的。以往的，開完會了就發佈一個很簡單的文稿。我想（北戴河會議）已經開始了吧，或者說是預備會議開始了。它放這一個消息也就是告訴大家，我們已經在這裡了。」
北京時政觀察人士華頗也認為，北戴河會議可能已經開始，由於胡錦濤的心腹令計劃也陪同出席習近平接見專家人才的會議，說明胡錦濤也到了北戴河。
今年十八大前的北戴河會議比以往更加神秘，海內外媒體對會議的興趣也空前高漲，伍凡指出，這是因為目前中共內部鬥爭激烈和外部壓力巨大。
伍凡：「一個是內部鬥爭，一個是外部壓力。內部的鬥爭是名單擺不平，還有個軍委會，軍委會人員是誰進來，這個一直在討價還價。這是第一個原因。第二個原因呢，這個路線怎麼走？胡錦濤7月23號那個講話，恐怕已經定調了，繼續走中國特色的社會主義道路。那就等於把毛澤東路線，以及薄熙來這一派就打下去了。」
而黨外壓力則來自之前7.21北京特大水災，和全國此起彼伏的維權抗爭。華頗指出，最近的民眾事件顯現出「90後」的年輕人，要求變革的聲音不同於父輩。
北京時政觀察人士華頗：「『什邡事件』、『啓東事件』這些90後的崛起，我覺得他們是非常優秀的一代，現在甚麼事都可能發生，共產黨就稍許的改變，是不是能滿足這些90後，我覺得要畫一個很大的問號了。」
本屆「北戴河會議」的兩個議題也備受關注，一是人事安排，一是對改革方向和步伐的定調。會議是否有所突破，形成改變呢？
華頗：「我想中共的領導人，處於全局考慮，對於現在的危機他是洞若觀火的，他也有改變的欲望。但是改變得了，改變不了？是否能夠成功的改變？要畫一個很大的問號了。因為現在中共要改變的話，首先看中共有沒有勇氣，而且是不是人民還給它這種時間。」
《蘋果日報》評論說，「北戴河會議」可能就換屆選舉達成某些共識，但只要中共中央政治局委員、常委的產生方式不變，中共權鬥的血腥就不會絕跡，只會開啓新一輪鐵幕後的權鬥。
2012年也是美國大選年，華頗表示，相比「北戴河會議」連召開日期也不透明，十八大還可能延期，美國的選舉體制非常透明。全國領導人誕生體制比拚之下，中國人無權選擇統治者，無權參與到其中，這是非常悲哀的。
採訪/劉恵 編輯/尚燕 製作/王明宇
Have the Beidaihe Meeting Been Held or Changed?
China Vice Premiere Xi Jinping appeared
at Beidaihe on the August 5.
Media in Hong Kong and Taiwan media think that
it is not much longer before the Beidaihe meetings take place.
However, commentators point out that the Beidaihe
meetings may have started already.
However, whether or not the results of the meeting
can bring about a revolution remains unknown.
High level CCP officials continue to appear
at the popular summer retreat spot of Beidaihe.
Hong Kong and Taiwan media continue
to ponder the date of Beidaihe meeting.
On August 5, China Central Television reported Xi Jinping
met with experts and grass-root talent vacationing at Beidaihe.
Taiwan Central News Agency believes this report
shows Beidaihe meetings will take place soon.
Current affairs commentator Wu Fan points out
the CCP has never had a high level of clarity.
Releasing this type of report may signify
the Beidaihe meetings have already started.
Wu Fan: “In the past, Beidaihe meetings
have been announced after they take place.
After the meeting ends, a simple draft will be published.
I think the Beidaihe meetings have started already.
At least the preparatory meetings have started.
They release this information to tell
everyone they are already there.”
Beijing political observer Hua Po also believes
the Beidaihe meetings may have already started.
Hu Jintao’s trusted aid Ling Jihua joined Xi Jingping
to meet with experts and grass-root talents.
This indicates Hu jintao is also at Beidaihe.
This year’s Beidaihe meetings are more
mysterious than have been in the past.
International media has also shown
great interest towards the meetings.
Wu Fan points out that this is because internal fighting
within the CCP is intense, and outside pressures are high.
Wu Fan: “One reason is infighting,
another reason is external pressure.
The reason of infighting is that there
is disagreement over the name list.
Who will be chosen from Central Military Commission?
This issue is still being negotiated. This is the first reason.
The second reason is how to carry out their policies.
Hu Jintao’s remarks on July 23 seem to set a direction, to
continue following socialism with Chinese characteristics.
That means abandoning Maoism,
and removing Bo Xilai’s faction.”
External pressures have come from Beijing’s devastating
7.21 floods and protests occurring all over China.
Hua Po points out that the recent protests involving young
generations shows different voices calling for reform.
Hua Po: “The Shifang and Qidong incidents
highlighted that the young generation is remarkable.
Anything could happen. Although the CCP can make slightly
changes, but I doubt whether the young generation can be satisfied.”
There are two issues that are also receiving
much attention in this year’s Beidaihe’s meetings.
One is the arrangement of personnel, and the other one
is the direction of reform and how to establish it.
This revolves around whether there will
be a breakthrough and change during the meeting?
Hua Po: “I think CCP leaders are in a position
to consider the entire situation.
As for the current dangers, they see them very clearly.
They also have the desire to change,
but whether or not change this is possible or
can be a successful still poses a huge question mark.
If the CCP wants to change now, first of all it depends
on whether the CCP has the courage to change.
It also depends on whether or not the
people give them time to do so.”
Apple Daily points out that it is possible the consensus
on the general election may be reached at Beidaihe meetings.
If there is no change in the method used to appoint CCP
members of the Politburo of the Central Committee
and Standing Committee, bloody trails resulting
from CCP power struggles will not end.
2012 is also an important election year in the U.S.
Hua Po expresses that in comparison, even meeting dates
for the Beidaihe meetings are unclear.
The 18th People’s Annual Congress may be extended
whereas in the U.S., the election system is very clear.
Under CCP rule, Chinese people do not have the right
to elect rulers, and it is a great tragedy that they do not have the rights to participate.