【新唐人2012年8月6日訊】谷開來謀殺海伍德案件將在下週四在安徽開始審判。各方關注中共對谷開來案件判決結果，以及下一步對薄熙來的處理。評論指出，共產黨將試圖把薄熙來醜聞的影響降低到最小程度，阻止多米諾骨牌倒下，傾覆共產黨這條大船。
谷開來謀殺英國商人海伍德一案，將遠離薄熙來大本營—-重慶市，在安徽合肥開庭審理。
英國《獨立報》分析說，官方指控谷開來的措辭，給予法庭操作的空間。 官方公告說，「 因為擔心海伍德對她兒子（薄瓜瓜）人身安全的威脅，薄谷開來毒殺了海伍德。」
原國務院「農村發展研究中心」研究員姚監復對《新唐人》分析說，當局可能會採用精神病等藉口，減輕對谷開來的刑罰。
原國務院「農村發展研究中心」研究員姚監復：「兩種可能。一種可能是判刑比較重。她是謀殺犯。第二種可能，如果她有精神病或憂鬱症，會不會判輕一點，可以免除一死。我認為第二種可能性大。」
而旅居德國的社會學博士王蓉芬對《新唐人》分析說，谷開來將被判死緩。
旅德社會學博士王蓉芬：「但是中國經濟大國地位，讓她（谷開來）掉腦袋，怕引起西方世界抗議。反對死刑的人還是很多的。一般名人，他們（中共）都是保住（名人的）命的。」
王蓉芬在1966年曾經寫信給毛澤東，質問他到底要把中國引向何處，並聲明退出共青團，而被關押十三年。
《獨立報》的報導說，中共內部各方派系迫切需要在谷開來審判結果上團結起來，以保證十年一次的權力交接平穩進行。報導引述政治分析家章立凡的話說，「這個迅速審判谷開來的決定，表明領導人迫切希望儘快結束這樁政治醜聞。」「他們希望甩開這個暴露了領導層分裂，並赤裸裸展示高層腐敗的醜聞。」
姚監復指出，共產黨將竭力把這個二十年來最大的醜聞影響，壓低到最小程度，防止它成為中共倒臺的導火索。
姚監復：「我想最後還是要保住這條大船。就是江澤民說，我們都在一條船上。泰坦尼克號得保住，不能一個常委一個常委，一個一個，由小到大，都給你打倒。下棋一樣，你想把兵馬炮都吃掉。他只能倒過來，能保兵就保兵，能保馬就保馬。能保車就保車。多米諾骨牌不能讓它倒下去。我估計是這樣。能切斷一塊就切斷一塊。」
王蓉芬表示，當局也會盡量切割薄熙來和谷開來。最近有中共內部放料說，薄熙來在十年前就已經打算跟谷開來離婚，但是為了兒子，勉強維持婚姻。
王蓉芬：「對薄熙來他們還不敢整的太狠了。因為畢竟是自己人，而且怕薄熙來那些粉絲鬧事。那些極左份子，毛分子，鬧起來，也是中國很不安定的因素。所以我覺得，薄熙來就不了了之，或者是軟禁，不會要他的命，也不會把他關起來。」
但是，胡溫「倒薄」是既定策略。
香港《開放》雜誌主編金鐘分析說，從權力場、從戰略上考量，搞掉薄熙來是為了保障習近平順利接班，掌權十年。江胡兩代有共識：對薄不放心。因此，當務之急是防止薄十八大入常。否則薄入常後隨時可以取習而代之。甚至認為，倒薄一不做二不休，非置之死地不可。打而不死，他隨時可以捲土重來。
因此，金鐘說，對谷開來判的越重，越有利於制服薄。然後，再加貪腐和打黑，「辦薄之案，功成矣。」
採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/蕭宇
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will try to avoid domino
effect during Gu Kailai’s trial, analysts say.
Gu Kailai will be put on trial in Anhui province
instead of Bo Xilai’s home city,
Chongqing next Thursday, accused of
murdering Neil Heywood.
The trial, which result is closely related to how the CCP will
deal with Bo Xilai, has drawn wide attention from onlookers.
The view is that the CCP will try to minimize
the influence of the Bo Xilai scandal to protect itself,
which might otherwise collapse under the domino effect.
For the case of murdering of Neil Heywood,
the CCP’s official announcement accusing Gu Kailai
provided the opportunity for the court verdict.
UK newspaper, The Independent wrote that
the CCP authority claimed that
“Gu Kailai poisoned Heywood because she worried
about the threat against her son Bo Guagua’s life by the British Businessman.”
Yao Jianfu, former researcher of Department of
Studies of Rural Policies, told NTD that
the CCP might mitigate the punishment on Gu with
the excuse that she has mental problems.
Yao Jianfu: “There are two possibilities; the first one is
that Gu will end up with a death sentence as a murderer.
The second one is that Gu will be kept alive
if she is “identified” to be mentally disordered.
Personally I think the second case is more likely to happen.”
Wang Rongfen, an overseas scholar of sociology in Germany,
told NTD that Gu will probably get a suspended death penalty.
Wang Rongfen said: “As an economic giant,
the CCP worries about the consequent protests in western countries if Gu Kailai is executed.
In most cases the CCP chooses not to kill
very famous individuals.”
Wang Rongfen was famous for writing to Mao Zedong
in 1966, questioning the direction in which Mao was leading China.
Wang also announced she quit the Communist Youth
League and was since detained for 13 years.
The Independent’s reported that various factions in the
CCP badly needed to reach agreement on Gu Kailai’s trial,
in order to guarantee a stable power handover
which takes place every ten years.
The report cited political commentator Zhang Lifan’s words
that “The quick decision on bringing Gu to trail indicates
that the CCP leaders want to put an end to
Bo’s political scandal as soon as possible”
“They hope to be eased from the scandal which revealed
the division among the CCP leader group and the details of high-level corruptions”.
Yao Jianfu remarked that the CCP tried its best to play
down the influence of this largest scandal in recent 20 years,
preventing it from inducing any event
which might lead to the CCP’s collapse.
(Yao Jianfu): “I believe that the ultimate goal is
to prevent the “huge ship” from sinking.
As Jiang Zemin once said, ‘we are all on the same ship’.
Therefore they have to protect this “Titanic” of CCP regime,
and can’t endure the overthrow of politburo members
one after another.
It’s like a chess game. To avoid losing the game,
they will protect every piece from a pawn to a knight to a rook.
They can’t let the Dominoes fall. That’s what I guess.”
Wang Rongfen remarked that the CCP would also
try to separate Bo Xilai from Gu Kailai’s case.
Some CCP insider recently spread the news that
Bo wanted a divorce ten years ago but kept the marriage for his son.
(Wang Rongfen):”The CCP leaders don’t want
to punish Bo too seriously.
They still regard Bo as a party member and also worry
about intense reactions from Bo’s supporters.
If ultra-leftists and Maoists really do something
they can also make big trouble to China’s social stability.
Therefore I personally believe that,
Bo Xilai will be safe or house arrested at most.
He won’t be killed or put into prison.”
However, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao won’t change
their strategy of overthrowing Bo Xilai completely.
Jin Zhong, chief editor of HK’s Open magazine said that
strategically it was necessary to overthrow Bo Xilai
so Xi Jinping could take over the power smoothly.
Both Jiang and Hu factions agree that
Bo is a dangerous person.
Therefore, the priority is to prevent Bo
from entering the politburo.
This stops Bo from conspiring a coup to replace
Xi’s position at any time.
Jin Zhong believes that it is necessary to kill Bo Xilai
if Hu Jintao wants to eliminate his threat.
If left alive Bo may get the chance of comeback.
Jin Zhong concluded that the more seriously Gu Kailai
is punished, the easier it is to suppress Bo Xilai.
Along with Bo’s crime of corruptions and the “anti-triad” movement, “it has been a success in dealing with Bo Xilai’s case”.