【新唐人2012年8月1日訊】距離十八大召開的時間越來越近了，而入常的人選，當局仍然沒有敲定。日前，有海外媒體報導，因為中共目前並沒有公布常委格局是9人還是7人，因此，廣東省委書記汪洋「入常」的變數最大。但是，又有分析指出，汪洋入常沒有懸念。那麼，出局的會是誰？下面請看本臺記者的報導。

據海外媒體報導，汪洋之所以被看好，不僅僅因為他的實力，他的背景，更因為他年齡上的優勢。假如中共9常委，真的削減為7常委，無疑是一種「狼多肉少」的局面，在這種情況下，如果汪洋能上位，那誰又將「出局」呢？

6月8號，香港《南華早報》曾經預測7常委人選名單，分別是習近平、李克強、俞正聲、張德江、王岐山、李源潮和劉雲山。資深媒體人王宇心分析認為，這是江派精心挑選的名單，放風的目地是投石問路，在「北戴河會議」前試探黨內外輿論的反應。而從目前形勢來看，備受爭議的貪腐江派人馬俞正聲、張德江「入常」希望渺茫。

最近，原打算在秦皇島參加中共18大預備會議的上海訪民，被非法抓捕，上海市駐京辦事處的一位工作人警察告訪民，「凡是寫出18大期間不再上訪的保證書的，可以在家裏安居，不寫保證書的一律拘留或教養。」分析認為，俞正聲至今仍延續「血債派」的做法，殘害老百姓。

王宇心表示，胡錦濤把貪腐保守的江系「血債派」——俞正聲、張高麗、張德江、孟建柱等人踢出十八大常委會，有助於下一屆領導班子推進中共和平轉型。

那麼，對於汪洋是否能進常委，原歷史學教授劉因全表示，無論是9常委，還是7常委，汪洋入常都沒有懸念。

原歷史學教授劉因全：「汪洋在廣東也很有政績，主要是烏坎事件，他處理的非常好，最近又提出來幸福廣東，代表下層人民的利益，提出一些大政方針，我認為這些都會給他入常加分，所以，我認為即使中共改為7常委，汪洋入常也是沒有懸念的。」

此外，今年兩會前後，汪洋公開喊出「改革要從黨和政府頭上開刀」，以及「破除人民幸福是黨和政府恩賜的錯誤認識」等驚人言論，並宣佈在廣東試點「官員財產申報制度」，和率先在深圳推動「工會直選」，另外，廣東21個地級市政法委書記不再兼任公安局長。

而在廣東面臨颱風和大暴雨的時候，汪洋冒著風雨，前往惠州考察，大展「親民秀」，並再度高唱「幸福廣東」的主旋律。《路透社》曾指出，「汪洋被視為下一個溫家寶」。《澳廣》日前也報導，「汪洋是中國政壇的一顆新星，被廣泛認為是改革派領導人之一。」

網路作家吳建國則表示，作為一個改革派，汪洋「入常」會帶來一些改革的希望，但是，在現有體制下，能走多遠，他不抱太大的期望。

網路作家吳建國：「汪洋即使入了常，他是否能夠繼續他的改革，也是一個很大問題。比如說，過去朱鎔基在當總理前，他就曾經豪言壯語要懲治貪污腐敗，但上臺後，他就悄聲了，他就難以實現他的豪言壯語，他甚至想辭職不幹了。所以問題的關鍵，不在於誰上誰下的問題，而是中共這個制度，專制制度的問題。這個制度不解體，就很難以實現民主、法制、還政於民。」

吳建國還表示，9常委是過去江澤民搞的，目地是，讓他自己的人在常委中擁有絕對多數，以避免遭到清算，那時9常委就有6人是他的人，胡錦濤和溫家寶的意見難以在常委中獲得通過。

但是，無論是7人也好，還是9人也好，吳建國認為，這只是一種權力鬥爭，不會對政治改革和實現民主起到甚麼作用。

採訪編輯/常春 後製/薛莉

CCP Standing Committee—Who Will be Out if Wang Yang is In?

It is getting closer to the Chinese Communist Party(CCP)’s

18th Congress, but the authorities haven’t decided who will finally get into the Standing Committee.

Recently, overseas media have been saying that

since the CCP hasn’t declared the size of the committee,

whether the Party chief in Guangdong, Wang Yang,

can join the committee has the most uncertainty.

Some analysts believe that Wang Yang, the CCP Secretary

of Guandong and member of the Politburo,

will certainly join the committee,

but who will then be kicked out? Here’s our report.

According to overseas media, Wang Yang not only has talent

and background but is also at a relatively young age.

Wang Yang, the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) Secretary

of Guandong and Politburo member,

is a promising candidate for the CCP’s Standing Committee.

But if the number of the Standing Committee members is

reduced from 9 to 7, then “there is too little meat for so many wolves”, say media.

Under such circumstances, if Wang Yang joins

the committee, then who will be kicked out?

On June 8, the South China Morning Post (HK) predicted the

7 members of the Standing Committee as being:

Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Zhang Dejiang,

Wang Qishan, Li Yuanchao, and Liu Yunshan.

Wang Yuxin, a senior media reporter, says this list has been

carefully selected by Jiang’s Faction with the purpose

of sounding out the opinions inside and outside the party

before the Beidaihe Meeting.

But the current situation suggests that Yu Zhengsheng

and Zhang Dejiang from the Jiang Faction,

who are highly controversial and corrupt,

are not likely to be elected.

Recently, some Shanghai petitioners who planned to attend

the preparatory meeting for the18th Congress in Qinhuangdao City were arrested.

Staff from the Shanghai Office in Beijing told the petitioners that

“those who promise not to appeal again by signing a statement can stay home safely;

those who don’t will all be arrested or sent to labor camps”.

Analysts say that Yu Zhengsheng is still following the blood-

debt faction’s way of persecuting people.

Wang Yuxin says that by kicking out Jiang’s corrupt and

conservative blood-debt faction—including Yu Zhengsheng,

Zhang Gaoli, Zhang Dejiang, and Meng Jianzhu—from the

Standing Committee,

the next generation of leaders will be able to promote

the CCP’s transformation smoothly.

On whether Wang Yang can join the Standing Committee,

Liu Yinquan, a former history professor, says that

whether the Standing Committee has 9 or 7 positions,

there is no doubt that Wang Yang will get in.

[Liu Yinquan, Former History Professor]: “Wang Yang has a good political record in Guangdong

Province and he handled the Wukan Incident especially well.

Wang Yang recently came up with the concept of Happy

Guangdong, and put forward many positive policies for the Interest of the lower class.

I think these will all add points for him; therefore I think even

if the CCP is having 7 committee members, Wang Yang will be elected.”

Also, before the “Two Congresses” this year, Wang Yang

claimed in public that “reforms should start from the Party and government”

and to “discard the misconception that the people’s welfare

is bestowed by the Party and government”.

Wang Yang started the trial of the “officials’ asset report”

in Guangdong and “labor union elections” in Shenzhen.

Besides, the 21 secretaries of Guangdong’s regional

committees of political and legislative affairs are no longer serving as Public Security Bureau chiefs.

Also, when Guangdong suffered from typhoons and storms,

Wang Yang visited Huizhou City in rain,

showing the image of being close to the people,

and again advocated the main idea of “Happy Guangdong.”

The Reuters said that “Wang Yang

is regarded as the next Wen Jiabao.”

ABC Radio Australia recently reported that

Wang Yang is China’s rising new star

and is widely regarded as one of the leaders

to push for political reforms.

Wu Jianguo, an online writer, says that as a member of the

political reform faction,

Wang Yang’s “joining the Standing

Committee” will bring some hope for reforms.

But Wu does not have high expectations for political reforms

in the current political system.

[Wu Jianguo, Online Writer]: “Even if Wang Yang joins the

Standing Committee, whether he can continue his reforms will become a question.

For example, the former premier Zhu Rongji vowed to punish

the corrupt, but he became quiet after taking on his position.

Zhu Rongji cannot realize his promise and has

even considered quiting.

Therefore the key to the problem is not who gets elected

or kicked out, but the current autocratic regime of the CCP.

If the CCP regime does not collapse, none of the goals of

democracy, the rule of law, and of giving the power back to the people can be realized.”

Wu Jianguo says that Jiang Zemin decided to have 9 Standing

Committee members to make his faction the majority in the Standing Committee, to avoid being punished.

At that time, among the 9 members,

6 of them belonged to Jiang’s faction,

and therefore Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao’s opinions

were hardly approved within the committee.

But whether it’s 7 or 9, Wu Jianguo believes that

it is only a struggle for power and won’t make any difference

in China’s political reform or in the realization of democracy.