【新唐人2012年7月16日訊】隨著十八大的臨近，中共政局的走向已經成為大陸民眾茶餘飯後熱衷的話題，網上更是議論紛紛。《博訊網》7月12號登出網民「華頗」對中共當前政治佈局的預測，更列出了十八大熱門人選，並用「百分比機率」進行排行，引起外界關注。

華頗在文章中首先分析說，政法委因為在「薄、王案」上栽了大跟頭，所以在十八大上「被降級」是在情理之中。

同時他認為，胡錦濤在控制了「槍桿子」後，還要在十八大上拿回被江派人馬掌控的「筆桿子」。換句話說，主管意識形態的中共政治局常委、中央宣傳思想工作領導小組組長李長春肯定要被掃地下臺了。

華頗： 「比如說《人民日報》來講，中共中央第一報了，它既有不要對黨的政策說三道四的文章，也有前後觀點矛盾的文章，給人莫衷一是，造成非常混亂， 這就造成一把手不能掌握輿論工具，所以我認為十八大要是9變7人，李長春那個位置也會被取消的，他所擁有的那個權力也會被新選出來的一把手所擁有。」

對於這些被熱門討論的人選在十八大入常的「機率」，華頗猜測，汪洋相對來說具有開放意識，有可能會接替李長春的位置，當選機率是80%﹔其次是張德江，可能接替賈慶林的位置，當選機率為70%﹔接下來是中組部部長李源潮，可能接替賀國強的位置，當選的機率為70%﹔王岐山和令計劃的當選機率都為60%﹔劉延東可能作為花瓶入常，當選機率為50%。

除了華頗的版本，網上還流傳著民間對中共十八大後政局各種各樣的預測。華頗說，這正是中共政治極端不透明所導致的。

華頗：「中國政治生活極端不透明，不得不引起人們對此進行猜測，所以每個人都會用各種各樣的原因進行推斷。 政治來找你，你不找政治，政治也會來找你，所以我們每個人都在政治生活中決定一切，所以我們關心政治也是應該的。」

時事評論員汪北稷認為，現在越來越多的大陸民眾敢於參與談論政治，這樣中國才有希望。

汪北稷：「大家需要談論政治來消除它的敏感性，不要對政治敏感。 政治簡單化，每個人都可以參與，越多的人批評政治，參與政治，中國越好，中國會越簡單。」

汪北稷指出，中國的軍隊、信息、新聞、教育等國家的每一個細節都被中共政治化，中共的紅色政治甚至凌駕於法律之上。

汪北稷：「到處都是他的政治，一個顏色的政治、紅色的政治，一個政治符號和方向。這樣造成中國政治上的風險非常大，在別的國家是一個簡單的，通過法制解決的問題，在中國變成一個巨大的醜聞、巨大的風險。」

儘管敢於議論中共政局的大陸民眾越來越多，汪北稷指出，同時民眾也不無失望的看到，共產黨的高官，所有準備入常的政治局委員，或者所有的候補委員中，還沒有看到有人有勇氣來改變歷史。

採訪/劉惠 編輯/許旻 後製/蕭宇

18th Congress Politburo Candidate List Spread Over Internet

The 18th Congress is now approaching. The Chinese

Communist Party’s (CCP) next has become a hot topic.

Many rumors are spreading over the internet.

On July 12, the Boxun website published predictions

on the 18th Congress candidates by netizen Hua Po.

He ranked candidates by a percentage possibility,

which has drawn the public’s attention.

Hua Po has analyzed that the Political and Legislative

Affairs Committee (PLAC) has been badly weakened

since the Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun incidents.

It is a natural move that they will

be “demoted” during the 18th Congress.

Hua said that after Hu Jintao took control of the army,

the next step is that Hu would take the “pen” back

from Jiang Zemin’s faction.

In other words, this means Li Changchun,

propaganda chief of the CCP, would be removed.

Hua Po: “For example, the People’s Daily, a CCP

mouthpiece, has published articles recently.

They are either criticizing or promoting CCP policy.

This has confused people, and seems very chaotic.

This is the result of the propaganda chief

being unable to control the situation.

During the 18th Congress, if the number of Politburo

members changes from nine to seven, Li Changchun’s seat would be removed.

His position as propaganda chief would

be replaced by a new member.”

For possible candidates, Hua Po guessed that

Wang Yang, who is open-minded, has an 80% chance of taking over from Li Changchun.

Zhang Dejiang has a 70% possibility

of replacing Jia Qinglin.

Li Yuanchao, minister of the CCP organization department,

has a 70% chance of taking over from He Guoqiang.

Wang Qishan and Ling Jihua have

a 60% chance to be elected.

Liu Yandong has a 50% possibility

of being elected into the Politburo.

Aside from Hua Po’s prediction, there are many rumors

about the 18th Congress circulated over the internet.

Hua Po said that the CCP being extremely opaque

was the leading cause for these rumors.

Hua Po: “The CCP’s extreme opaqueness

is leaving people guessing.

Everyone is taking a different angle

and point of view in guessing.

Politics is connected with you,

even you aren’t concern about it.

Everyone makes decisions in a political environment.

Having concern for politics is necessary.”

Wang Beiji, a current affairs commentator believes that more

mainlanders should participate in discussions on politics.

Only by doing so will China has a future.

Wang Beiji: “Everyone should talk about politics

to erase its sensitivity. Don’t be sensitive about politics.

To make politics simple, everyone can participate.

The more people criticize and participate in politics,

the better and more simple China will be.”

Wang Beiji pointed out that China’s military, information,

news and education are all politicized by the CCP.

The CCP’s red politics is above the law.

Wang Beiji: “The CCP has labeled everything as politics.

They have colored politics with a red color,

with a symbol and a direction.

This results in China’s politics facing crisis.

In other countries, it is a simple issue,

as the law can solve the problem.

However, in China, the problem can turn

to large scandals and risks.”

Wang said that although more mainlanders have discussed

the CCP’s political situation bravely, they’re disappointed

that none of high-ranking officials, Politburo candidates,

or alternative members have the courage to change history.