【新唐人2012年7月6日訊】推翻專制體制的「阿拉伯之春」運動，開始於2010年12月的突尼斯，至今，已有突尼斯、埃及、利比亞、葉門四個專制國家被推翻，迫使阿拉伯世界多個國家調整了政策。不過，遠在東亞的專制國家—-中國，內部同樣不像表面那麼平靜，中共高層已經召開十次專題秘密會議，研究如何預防中國出現「阿拉伯之春」。

五個月前，中共外交部官員在「慕尼克國際安全會議」上，反駁美國參議員馬侃有關「阿拉伯之春即將在中國出現」的說法，並宣稱「中國出現阿拉伯之春的說法，純屬幻想」。

但是，根據香港《爭鳴》雜誌鮑文來的文章揭示，一年來，以胡錦濤為組長的「中共國家安全領導小組」，已經十次召開專題秘密會議，討論中國可能出現「阿拉伯之春」的形式與爆發時機。

文章說，中國每年巨增的失業群體已經成了中共高層的心病。大量底層出身的高中學生放棄了高考，另外，大量的「畢業即失業」大學生，以及，自去年下半年，無業青年「兩搶」案件上升了170%，對此，中共高層不得不決定停止大學擴招計劃。

文章還認為，中國社會極度不公，即便是不引發「阿拉伯之春」之類的全民運動，也會高頻率的引發群體事件。網路上的小規模調查表明：「中國早晚會亂」已經是底層共識，財富群體的新一輪「移民潮」強化了這種認識。

政論家伍凡認為，大陸民眾對中共政權越來越不滿，這與出現「阿拉伯之春」的國家情形很類似。而且，中共目前已經失去了對社會的控制，慣用的鎮壓政策也逐漸在失效。

伍凡：「你從最近幾次活動看，就在上個月的廣東中山幾萬人對抗武警，武警派了幾千人去實彈鎮壓，從7月1號開始到今天7月5號了，四川甚邡市的抗議環保，都是幾萬人出來了。」

《爭鳴》雜誌還揭露，國安小組第十次會議分析了「阿拉伯之春」發生的概率之後，結果很不樂觀：社會保障後續乏力與可能的虧空，將會引發大規模社會抗議。為解燃眉之急，中共試探 「推遲退休年齡五年」 計劃，結果網上罵聲一片，民眾「上街」的情緒高漲。

在國際上，「阿拉伯之春」影響還在擴大：俄國普京以舞弊方式贏得總統大選，在俄國內部抗議運動逐漸升級，「俄版阿拉伯之春」已見徵兆。而且中國內部的「新疆版、藏版阿拉伯之春」隨時可現。

文章透露，對此壓力，目前中共最高層頻繁調整策略，如放鬆微博控制，就是6月21號國安小組第10次秘密會議的決定。

中共喉舌《人民日報》最近幾乎以懇求的口氣要求地方各級政府在處理國內問題時，「要考慮國際影響」，並以陝西安康市婦女懷孕七個月被強制人工流產為例，指出，基層政權惡行給「中國形象」造成巨大負面影響。

但是，政論家伍凡指出，中共一直鎮壓老百姓，不是放開一個微博矛盾就能消除，也不是中共會議討論就能夠解決。

伍凡： 「共產黨你就開10次、開一百次這樣的會議也沒有用，因為共產黨欺騙鎮壓老百姓而不是關心老百姓，那老百姓怎樣容忍啊？已經容忍60多年了。現在四川90代中學生打前鋒，他們出來了，這過去共產黨不敢想像的。香港40萬人上街，共產黨能想像的到嗎？」

伍凡表示，目前微博放開控制，是中共內部分化的表現。他指出，現在不只是老百姓不相信共產黨，連黨員自己也不相信共產黨。他說，只有結束中共統治才能避免中國的「阿拉伯之春」。

採訪/陳漢 編輯/宋風 後製/肖顏

CCP Leaders Hold Ten Secret Meetings:

How Can They Prevent an “Arab Spring” in China.

December 2010 saw the beginning of a series

of democratic movements against dictatorial regimes.

This was called the “Arab Spring.”

Since this began, four dictatorships have been overturned,

including in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

The movement also forced many other Arabian

countries to adjust their political policies.

In China, which is still governed by a dictatorship,

the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the situation is also not as tranquil as it appears.

It is revealed that CCP leaders have held ten secret

Meetings, discussing how to prevent an “Arab Spring” from taking place in China.

Five months ago in Munich, a CCP Foreign Ministry official

tried to deny US Senator John McCain’s words.

McCain suggested the Arab Spring would appear in China.

He also claimed that “any statement saying that the Arab

Spring has spread to China is unrealistic”.

However, an article written by Bao Wenlai

in Hong Kong’s Cheng Ming magazine revealed

that the “CCP National Security Leading Group”

chaired by Hu Jintao has secretly met ten times.

This was to discuss how and when

the “Arab Spring” might break out in China.

The article wrote that one of the CCP leaders biggest

worries is the sharp increase in unemployment.

Unemployment is mainly found in high school

students, who give up attending the national college

examination, and college students who cannot

find a job after graduation.

In the second half of 2011, robberies committed

by unemployed, young people have increased by 170%.

Consequently, the CCP had to stop its plan

for further enrollment expansion in colleges.

The article also remarked that Chinese

society had become very unjust.

Even without a national protest like the “Arab Spring”,

there are frequent massive protests breaking out locally.

Some internet surveys among small groups indicate

most Chinese civilians agree that

“some kind of turmoil will eventually take place in China”.

The “immigration wave” of rich people has provided

further support to these opinions.

Political commentator Wu Fan believes that mainland

Chinese are becoming more and more resentful against the CCP authorities.

This is similar to the situations of the

countries involved in the “Arab Spring”.

In addition, the CCP is also losing its control

on society, with its old acts of suppression losing their effects on Chinese people.

(Wu Fan): “Let’s have a look at recent activities.

In the last few month, tens of thousands of people

in Zhongshan, Guangdong stood up against the police.

The CCP had to send thousands

of armed police as a crack down.

Since July 1st, many more thousands of people joined

the environmental protection protests in Shifang, Sichuan.”

The Cheng Ming article also revealed that the 10th meeting

of the CCP National Security Leading Group had analyzed the possibility of an “Arab Spring” in China.

The result was not good for the CCP.

Due to a huge deficit in social security funds, even

larger-scale protests will probably be induced.

Trying to find a quick solution, the CCP announced

a plan of “extending retirement age by five years”.

Nevertheless, they received overwhelming criticism

on the internet, causing more protests on the street.

Globally, the effects of the Arab Spring are still spreading.

Since Putin was found to be involved in fraud scandals

during 2012 presidential elections, the scale of protests began increasing in Russia.

Inside China, Arab-spring-like movements can

occasionally be observed in Xinjiang or Tibet.

The Cheng Ming article revealed that CCP leaders had

frequently adjusted their strategies to release this pressure.

For example, on June 21st during the 10th secret meeting,

they decided to loosen control on micro-blog sites.

Recently, People’s Daily, the CCP』s mouthpiece media,

also published articles requiring local governments

to “consider global effects” when dealing with local affairs.

The article cited the case of forced abortion of a seven

month pregnant woman in Ankang, Shanxi,

to show how “bad behaviors” of local authorities

had negatively affected the “figure of China”.

Wu Fan pointed out that since the CCP has been

suppressing Chinese people for so many years.

It’s not possible to eliminate these grudge by any discussion

in meetings, or only loosening control on micro-blog sites.

(Wu Fan): “As long as the CCP continues to deceive

and suppress Chinese people instead of benefiting them.

Nothing will change even if the CCP holds

hundreds of such meetings.

How can Chinese people tolerate this any more?

You know they have tolerated it for sixty years.

Now the post-90’s middle-school students in Sichuan

stood out as pioneers in street protests. This is unimaginable for the CCP.

In Hong Kong, 400,000 people joined the July 1st

parade against the dictatorship regime.

How can the CCP imagine that?”

Wu Fan further remarked that loosening control over

micro-blog sites indicates a division inside the CCP.

It is not only Chinese people that have no trust in the CCP,

but now even party members do not trust the party.

He concluded that the only way to avoid the “Arab Spring”

in China is to end governance by the CCP.