【新唐人2012年6月26日訊】22號，《紐約時報》以大篇幅報導有關「中國數據面具下的深度放緩」，報導說，中國經濟放緩的問題可能比數據表面嚴重。而各級官員在十八大領導人換班前夕，爭相美化數據，等待晉升與調職。但中國著名的企業高管及西方經濟學家們表示，有證據表明，中國地方和省級官員在偽造經濟統計數據，掩蓋了中國大陸經濟問題的真正嚴重程度。
《紐約時報》的報導說，關於中國經濟數據的質量和準確性的問題是長期的，但現在正在提出的問題是不尋常的。今年是自1989年以來的首次經濟急劇放緩，正好在中國最高領導層十年一次的轉換。
《紐時》以過剩的煤炭為例，說明中國的經濟嚴重放緩。同時，根據不願透露姓名的高管和經濟學家的描述，地方和省級官員偽造經濟統計數據，為了在十年一次的領導層換屆時，等待晉升與調職。
其中，企業高管和經濟學家們說：事實上，一些城市和省份的官員在拔高經濟產出、企業收入、企業利潤和稅收。那些官員敦促企業採用不同的帳本，以展示企業的業績及納稅在提升，事實上，這些都不存在。
謝田：「中國企業有兩套統計數據，或者是造兩本帳，早已經是公開的祕密了，中國的國有企業、中國的中小企業，中國的國有企業在欺騙投資大眾，欺騙外國投資者，中國的中小企業、私人企業，它因為逃稅漏稅也在作兩本帳。」
電力的生產和消費數量，已被認為是經濟活動的警示信號。
謝田：「(能源消耗)包括火力發電、水力發電、核能，和其他一些太陽能…一個是反映社會國民消費的水平，9:48所以用電數據如果是在下滑的話，第一，說明中國工業生產在急劇下滑，另外的話，如果居民消費用電也在下滑，這也說明，中國的內需—-帶動經濟的內需市場，也是處於非常萎縮之中。」
而報導指出，面對下跌的電力需求，發電廠用煤量減少，過剩的煤堆積在中國最大的儲煤區，數量創下記錄。但是，電力業高管們表示，地方和省級政府官員迫使電廠經理們不要向北京報告電力生產放緩的真實程度。
企業高管和經濟學家們粗略估計：這些不準確的統計數據造成了各種經濟指標被虛假誇大了1或2個百分點。這可能使非常糟糕的經濟消息看上去僅僅是個壞消息。
謝田：「不發佈那麼慘澹的數據，這種公然作假犯罪的行為在中國居然可以消遙法外，這也是非常奇怪的事情，但是也不奇怪，共產黨政府向來都是這樣的，因為第一它可以只要準確的數字，也許給自己用，但是那造假的數據是為了欺騙投資大眾，也欺騙國際社會。」
準確的統計數據供決策者們內部使用，而對公眾及金融市場發佈不那麼慘淡的數據，可能有助於解釋：為甚麼大陸央行這個月早些時候出人意料的突然降息。
《紐時》說，高盛和其他機構多年來的研究都明顯表明：中國的統計員們對季度性增長數據做過處理，在經濟繁榮期，低報實際增長率，在經濟衰退期，誇大經濟增長率。
謝田表示，央行這個月降息，恐怕是中共當局意識到經濟下滑的威脅，因為如果下滑繼續加快的話，將導致大量的工人失業，因此在這個情況下，突然提出「降息」，他認為跟「保增長」的策略息息相關。
採訪/劉惠 編輯/周平 後製/君卓
New York Times: Chinese Data Mask Depth of Slowdown
On June 22nd, a New York Times article titled Chinese Data
Mask Depth of Slowdown reported that
the problem of China’s economic slowdown may be
more severe than economic statistics show.
It seems that Communist officials of various levels are eager
to doll up the numbers before the 18th Congress leadership exchange.
However, China’s well-known business executives
and western economists express that
there is evidence showing that Chinese local and provincial
officials are forging these economic stats,
covering up the true severity of
Mainland China’s economic problems.
The New York Times reports that the quality and accuracy
of China’s economic data have been a long term problem,
but the concerns now being raised are unusual.
This year is the first time since 1989 that a sharp economic
slowdown has coincided with the once-a-decade changeover in the country’s top leadership.
The New York Times uses excess piles of coal as an example
to illustrate China’s severe economic slowdown.
At the same according to business executive Mr. Gao and
economists’ descriptions,
local and provincial officials have faked these statistics
in order to receive promotion during the once in ten year leadership exchange.
Business executives and economists say in reality, some city
and provincial officials are overstating economic output,
corporate revenue, corporate profits and taxes.
Those officials urged businesses to use a different
accounting book in order to demonstrate an increase in corporate performance.
In reality, these reports are false.
Xie Tian: “Chinese corporations have two sets of statistics,
or they make two accounting books.
This is already an open secret, including China’s state-owned
corporations and China’s medium and small corporations.
China’s state-owned corporations are deceiving foreign and
domestic investors.
China’s medium and small corporations as well as private
corporations are also making two accounting books because of tax evasion.”
Electricity production and consumption have been considered
as a warning signal for economic activities.
Xie tian: “[Energy consumption] includes thermal power,
hydro power, nuclear energy and other solar powers…
a level which reflects the nation’s standard of living.
So if electric data is declining, then first of all it indicates
China’s industrial productions are declining rapidly.
Secondly, if consumption of electricity is also declining,
this also indicates China’s internal need –
the internal market need to lead the economic stimulation
is also in a withered state.”
Reports point out that with decreasing need for electricity,
power plants’ coal usage is reduced.
A record reaching excess of coal is stored at one of
China’s largest storage areas.
However, power sector executives express that local and
provincial government officials have forced plant managers not to report to Beijing the full extent of the slowdown.
The executives and economists roughly estimated that the
effect of inaccurate statistics was to falsely inflate a
variety of economic indicators by 1 or 2 percent.
Business executives and economists roughly estimate that
these inaccurate stats have caused a variety of economic
indicators by exaggerating one or 2 percentages.
Xie Tian: “To not publish such miserable stats, to allow this
kind of blatant fraud to go unpunished, this is a very strange thing, but it’s not that strange.
The CCP has always been this way, because first of all it
only needs an accurate number,
maybe for them to use, but those fake numbers were created
to fool investors, and to fool international society.”
Accurate stats are only used internally for decision makers,
less dismal numbers are published for the public and financial
markets. This may help to explain why earlier this month,
information of unexpected sudden interest rate cut came
out of the People’s Bank of China.
New York Times says, many years of research by Goldman
Sachs and other financial institutions show:
Chinese Statisticians have handled quarterly growth stats.
Reporting lower than actual statistics during economically
flourishing times and reporting higher figures during recession.
Xie tian expressed that the interest rate cut this month by
the People’s Bank of China may be due to the fact that the
CCP have realized the threats of economic decline.
If the decline continues to speed up,
then it will lead to the unemployment of many.
Hence it is believed the sudden cut of interest rates
is closely associated with the policy to maintain growth.