【新唐人2012年6月18日訊】美國《財富》雜誌日前發表了一篇文章，分析指出，薄熙來下臺前，中國有三派人馬在爭奪下屆政府的經濟大權。今年年初，「民粹派」代表薄熙來跟「國家主義派」秘密談判下屆政府成員組成時，曾主張清除「改革派」。而分析認爲，破除中共的政治和經濟壟斷，和各個相互交叉的利益集團，才是中國轉型和發展的關鍵。
《財富》文章分析，薄熙來下臺前，有三派人馬在爭奪下屆政府的經濟大權：
「第一派是以薄熙來為代表的民粹派：他們不顧法治，追求「極端平均主義」的經濟政策和重新分配財富，強化政府在經濟中的角色。
第二派是國家主義派：他們主張維持現狀，由政府集權緊控經濟制高點。
第三派是改革派：他們主要以今年2月公布的世界銀行報告「中國2030」，作為中國下一步經濟改革的藍圖。」
旅美學者程曉農表示，這三派的劃分也可以說是三種觀點和立場，而「民粹派」多半是左派學者，坐而論道的一些人。
程曉農：「這三派大體上可以說存在，但是他們界限並不那麽分明。也就是說你很難準確的把哪一個人固定的劃在哪一派裏。因爲他是按觀點劃線的，不是按人劃線的。」
雜誌文章引述律師界人士的意見表示，任何了解薄熙來的人都知道他是一個只要權力、無視法律的人。曾是中國一家最大汽車廠的最大股東「仰融」，被當時的遼寧省長薄熙來掠奪七億美元資產後，被迫逃往美國。薄熙來在統治重慶期間，以肅貪和打黑為名，打擊他的政敵，民營企業家們也被抹黑成黑社會，並成爲他的提款機。
一位了解內幕的人士則透露，年初薄熙來跟「國家主義派」秘密談判下屆政府的輪廓時，曾主張清除「改革派」。
文章還指稱，薄熙來的下臺，顯示，李克強和汪洋為首的「中國經濟改革派」正在得勢。可能成為下屆國家主席的習近平，是否也傾向「改革派」，仍是一個關鍵問題。但目前，那些對於中國邁向法制漠不關心，只強調重新分配財富並從中謀取私利的薄熙來「新左派民粹主義們」現在處於守勢。
據一位海外公司執行總裁(CEO) 說，「經濟改革派」正與「國家主義派」爭奪對每一個關鍵經濟部門的控制權。這他是在五月中旬與中共高層會晤時提出的。
時政評論人士草庵居士認爲，「自由派」們已經看到薄熙來代表的「民粹主義」會導致中國走向「軍國主義」的可能，他們想推動政治和經濟改革來扭轉中國逐漸崩潰的經濟狀況。
草庵居士：「自由派他們希望中國走向自由化是個好的事情，是應該鼓勵的。但是由於在中共統治的這個嚴厲（環境），自由派還沒有足夠的力量來推動這個事情。但是我相信，在未來十八大之後的中國的自由派將會逐漸的擴大，自由主義的這種思想還會逐漸的滲透到整個政治和經濟各個領域。」
文章最後寫道，這場鬥爭的結果尚不明朗，但對中國的命運舉足輕重。最新的數據顯示，中國工業生產與出口已出現大幅下降，經濟高速增長時代已經過去。
草庵居士表示，由於當前中共在政治和經濟的壟斷，造成了很多「相互交叉的利益集團」，而這正是中國政治經濟改革的一個最大障礙。破除這種壟斷和這些既得利益集團是中國轉型和發展的關鍵。
採訪/常春 編輯/李明飛 後製/薛莉
Fortune: What China’s Power Struggle Means for its Economy
Recently “Fortune” published an article.
The article pointed out that prior to Bo’s demise there were
three broad factions struggling for power in the next government.
Earlier this year Bo’s “populist” faction was in discussions with
the “statists" over the contours of the next government.
The economic reformers were “going to be the ones left out,"
says one source privy to the negotiations.
Some analysts think that the key to realizing China’s reform
and development is to break the CCP’s political and economic monopoly.
The article from “Fortune” analyzed that
prior to Bo’s demise there were three factions struggling
for the economic power of the next government.
Bo’s populist faction was uninterested in extending the rule
of law and
more interested in “ultra-egalitarian" economic policy aimed
at redistributing wealth and increasing the state’s role in the economy.
Another camp is the “statists" — those who believe in the
status quo, with the government tightly controlling the commanding heights of China’s economy.
The third group is the economic reformers, who laid down
their marker in February with the public release of a
World Bank report called “China 2030″ — a blueprint for
the type of economic reforms the country urgently needs.
Cheng Xiaonong, a visiting scholar in U.S., thinks that
the differentiation of these three factions is based on
three different points of view.
Most members of Bo’s populist faction are leftists.
They like to sit and prattle about the general principles.
Cheng Xiaonong: ”These three factions do exist but
the dividing line is not that clear. In other words,
it』s hard to determine if a person belongs to any of
these three factions.
The differentiation is based on different points of
view not on individual persons.”
A journal article quoted the opinion from lawyers.
Whoever is familiar with Bo Xilai knows that he only
wants power and disregards the law.
Yang Rong was one of the largest stakeholders of
a big automobile factory in China.
When Bo Xilai was governor of Liaoning Province,
he appropriated Yang Rong’s $700 million for himself.
Later Yang Rong was forced to flee to the U.S.
When Bo ruled Chongqing, he attacked his political
opponents in the name of eliminating corruption and cracking down on gangsters.
Private business owners were blackened as gangsters
and turned out to be Bo’s cash machine.
Earlier this year Bo was in discussions with the “statists"
over the contours of the next government.
The economic reformers were “going to be the ones left
out," says one source privy to the negotiations.
The article from “Fortune” also says that Bo’s demise is
a hopeful sign.
It shows that the faction of “economic reformers” led by
Li Keqiang and Wang Yang is now gaining influence.
Whether the man likely to be China’s next President,
Xi Jinping, is also inclined toward reform remains a critical question.
But for now, Bo’s “new left populists," who cared little
about moving China toward the rule of law and
much more about redistributing wealth
(sometimes to their own benefit), are in retreat.
According to a CEO of an overseas company,
the economic reform wing is ascendant,
and is engaged with the statists in a struggle for control
of every key economic ministry.
This CEO had some high-level meetings with
the Chinese government in mid-May.
Commentator Caoan Jushi thinks that “liberals” have
already noticed that Bo’s populist faction will possibly lead China to “militarism".
They want to promote political and economic reforms
to reverse the gradual collapse of the Chinese economy.
Caoan Jushi:”It’s a good thing that liberals hope China
can move towards liberalization.
However, in such a stern political environment ruled by the CCP,
liberals are not powerful enough to drive China’s liberalization.
But I believe China’s liberals will be more and more powerful
after the 18th National Congress.
Liberalism’s ideas will be gradually infiltrated into
the political and economic fields. ”
At the end of the article, it says: “How that struggle will
play out is unclear, but the stakes couldn’t be higher.
As the recent economic data out of China suggest,
the era of unbridled growth may be over.
Industrial production and exports are down sharply.”
Caoan Jushi said, due to the CCP’s political and economic
monopoly, different interest groups are interlaced.
It is the biggest obstacle to implementing political
and economic reforms in China.
The key to realizing China’s reform and development is to
break the CCP’s monopoly and these interlaced interest groups.