【新唐人2012年6月9日訊】當年文革期間「上山下鄉」的知識青年，將在中共十八大全面上位。在目前的中共高層中，習近平、李克強、李源潮、令計劃等都有過類似經歷。外媒認為，「上山下鄉」的經歷，勢必給中共政壇注入不同的元素，徹底改變政治生態。不過，政論專家指出，這種幻想不夠實際，因為任何人到了中共這個系統都會「變壞」，只有解體這個系統才能改變中國。
香港《東方日報》報導，在中共十八大後，中國這艘巨輪由當年「文革期間上山下鄉的知青」掌舵，他們「上山下鄉」的經歷，勢必給中共政壇注入不同的元素，徹底改變政治生態。
《東方日報》認為，這些「知青」當年與廣大農民及農場職工風雨同舟、患難與共的這段歲月，已融進他們的血液。他們一旦掌握國柄，勢必對現在的政壇產生一定的衝擊。
不過，這種論調，時事評論家橫河不能認同。
時事評論家橫河：「我當然不認同了。當年共產黨第一代打江山的還是農民出身呢！他這個系統是壞的，所以任何人進去以後，都是身不由己的，不管是你是好的還是壞的。如果你是好的，就會被淘汰掉或者變壞掉，如果你是壞的，在裡面如魚得水。」
橫河指出，當年「文革」結束以後，有些人想改變中國而加入中共，最後都被共產黨改變，變壞掉了。
而有人認為，即將掌權的太子黨是不是當過知青？有沒有上山下鄉吃苦的經歷，都與能不能為老百姓服務「沒有關係」。
「舊金山中國民主教育基金會」會長林牧晨表示，現在太子黨在中國極有權勢，但他們比較普遍的思想是，這個「紅色江山」是他們父輩打下來的，所以他們理當「做江山」。
林牧晨：「普遍的來說，這些幹部子弟，也就是我們所說的太子黨，你要想他們因為吃過一點苦就為老百姓謀利益，恐怕這個很難。因為現在中共統治階層裡面，它根本就是完全是為了權勢，為了特權階級永遠霸佔權利，毫無節制的獲得他們的利益。這已經成為一個普遍的風氣。」
《東方日報》也承認，中國目前正處於貧富分化、官民對立、地區差別大等不定時炸彈的局勢下，因此外界正在關注有「知青經歷」的「中共第五代」，如何撐扶即將傾倒的大廈。
媒體評論認為，從近幾年溫家寶大談政治改革可以得到兩個重要訊息就是：中共體制存在著嚴重的、危及社會的問題，而此問題惟有通過政治改革的民主方式解決。最近薄熙來事件暴露出來的內幕，足以說明中國的困境和危險。
《大紀元時報》評論指出，上世紀90年代，中國就流傳「改革亡黨，不改革亡國」的說法。20年過去後，今天的中共政權與當年大清朝末期極其相似：國庫已空、無官不貪、貧富巨差、無處不拆、官民對立、民怨極大、天災人禍等，眼看政權崩潰在即。
前中共總書記胡耀邦智囊阮銘向《新唐人》表示，中共內部一直有「自由派」和「專制派」之間的爭鬥，但是，中國未來的路還要靠人民自己。
阮銘：「像李克強、習近平他們將來會走甚麼路，那我想也不決定他們自己了，還要決定於整個的環境，比如說民眾的反抗力量，民眾的覺悟，還要看國際上的力量。」
阮銘認為，現在中國已經到了破曉的時刻了，共產黨不改變就會完蛋。如果國內、國外的民主力量結合在一起，路就會走的比較好。
而橫河也表示，在共產黨這個以暴力破壞為主的體系面前，沒有人能夠改它，只有解體它，才能改變中國。
採訪/梁欣 編輯/宋風 後製/李若琳
“Educated Youths” in Power After CCP 18th Session.
Will They Change the Political Arena?
“Educated Youths”, who had experience “on the mountains
and in the countryside” during the Cultural Revolution,
will get power in the 18th session of
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Many high-level CCP officials such as Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang,
Li Yuanchao and Ling Jihua have similar experiences.
Foreign media think that their experiences
“on the mountains and in the countryside” are bound
to add different elements into the CCP political arena
and completely change the political environment.
However, political commentators point out that
this idea is not practical.
Any person will deteriorate
when he or she joins the CCP system.
Only by disintegrating this system
will China be able to change.
Hong Kong’s Oriental Daily News reported that
after the CCP 18th session,
the large ship of China will be steered
by those “Educated Youths.”
Those with experiences “on the mountains
and in the countryside” during the Cultural Revolution.
Their experiences “on the mountains and in the countryside”
are bound to add different elements into the CCP’s political
arena, and completely change the political environment.
Oriental Daily News said that in those years when
the “Educated Youths” conquered difficulties together
with the majority of farmers and farm workers,
these experiences have melted into their blood.
Once they hold power over the country, it is bound to
have some impact in the current political arena.
However, commentator Heng He said that such
an argument is not acceptable.
Heng He: “Of course, I don’t agree with it.
The first generation members of CCP, who seized
political power, were originally farmers. The system of the CCP is bad.
Therefore, anyone who joins it will be beyond
his or her own control, whether you are good or bad.
If you are good, you will be eliminated
or become deteriorated.
If you are bad, you will be like a duck in water.”
Heng He pointed out that after the end of the “Cultural
Revolution",
some people who wanted to change China and joined the CCP,
were all changed by the CCP. They deteriorated.
Some people said it has nothing to do with whether
they will serve for the people.
It does not matter whether the princelings who will be in
power were “Educated Youths” or not,
nor whether they had bitter experiences
“on the mountains and in the countryside”.
Lin Muchen, President of “San Francisco Chinese
Democracy Education Foundation” commented.
The princelings are very powerful in China.
However, a very common idea for them is that
“Red Power” was formed from their parents’ fight.
So they think they should certainly have the country’s power.
Lin Muchen: “Generally speaking, these children of cadres,
whom we call princelings, if you want to them to work
for the people’s interests just because they had a little bitter
experience, I am afraid it is very difficult for them to do so.
In the current CCP ruling class,
they are simply for power.
The privileged class always hold power
and gaining their interests unrestrainedly.
This has already become a common ethos.”
Oriental Daily News also acknowledged that China is now
in a situation of a ticking time bomb.
The rich-poor divide, conflicts between officials and public,
and large regional differences.
The outside world is wondering how the fifth CCP generation
with “Educated Youth experiences” will support the building of the CCP, which is about to collapse.
Some media comment that there are two important messages
from Wen Jiabao’s speeches of political reform in recent years.
There are serious problems threatening
the society in the CCP regime.
Only through political reform and democratic ways,
can these problems be resolved.
Recently, the inside stories exposed in the Bo Xilai incident
are enough to illustrate this plight and danger.
“The Epoch Times" commented that there
was a saying in the 1990s.
“With political reform, the CCP will end;
without political reform, China will end.”
In the past 20 years, the current CCP regime
is very similar to the late Qing Dynasty.
The treasury is empty, and corrupt officials are everywhere.
The gap between the rich and the poor is huge,
and house demolitions are everywhere.
The public strongly oppose the officials,
and people’s grievances are huge.
Natural disasters and human accidents frequently happen.
It seems that the collapse of the CCP
regime is just around the corner.
Ruan Ming, think tank of former CCP General
Secretary Hu Yaobang, spoke with NTD.
There are always struggles between the “liberals”
and the “authoritarian faction” within CCP.
However, the road of China’s future
depends on the people themselves.
Ruan Ming: “Take Li Keqing and Xi Jinping for example,
what road they will take, I think, will not be decided
by themselves, but depend on the entire situation.
With such things as the people’s resistance forces,
the consciousness of the public, and the international forces.”
Ruan Ming believes that China has now come
up to the moment of dawn.
The CCP will go to the end if it does not change.
If the domestic and foreign democratic forces
combine together, it will go well.
Heng He also said that when faced with the CCP system,
which mainly destructs things with violence, no one can change it.
Only by disintegrating it will China be able to change.