【新唐人2012年5月31日訊】前蘇聯結束共產統治的領導人是第五代。有分析認為，蘇聯解體是因為它的道德和文化的衰敗。而在中共第五代領導人換屆前夕，中國的普通民眾和著名人士都反映，中國社會一直處於道德普遍下滑之中。《紐約時報》發表文章指出，中國目前已經重現蘇共解體前兆。而我們現在看到的中國的情況，難道就是共產政權結束前的時刻嗎？共產政權，是不是如《紐約時報》所說，有一個天定的壽命？下面一起聽聽專家怎麼說。
共產政權五代壽終嗎？5月25號《紐約時報》登出一篇「前進中的中國真的是腳踏實地嗎？」(As China Marches Ahead, Is It On Solid Ground? )文章，其中作者(DIDI KIRSTEN TATLOW)比較了前蘇聯解體前的社會狀態和當前中國社會出現的問題，作者提出，我們現在看到的中國情況難道就是（共產政權）結束前的時刻嗎？
作者還引述「美國企業研究所」的Leon Aron在去年《外交政策》雜誌上發表的文章內容說，蘇聯的解體不是因為經濟的衰弱，儘管那時它面臨著嚴峻的挑戰；蘇聯的解體也不是因為阿富汗戰爭，儘管那是一個負擔。Aron指出，事實上，蘇聯解體是因為它的道德和文化的衰敗。
文章說，大多大陸民眾和著名人士認為，中國社會一直處於道德普遍下滑之中。甚至連總理溫家寶都說，中國社會和政治正遭受腐敗侵蝕，缺乏「可信度」。
而原蘇聯總理尼古拉•雷日科夫（Nikolai I. Ryzhkov），對當年的社會也直言不諱的說：我們偷自己的東西，收賄受賄，在報告中、報紙上、講壇上撒謊，我們沉溺在謊言中，互相給對方發獎牌。所有這一切—從上到下、從下到上的發生著。
文章還指出，前蘇聯解體共產統治的領導人是第五代，目前中共正處於第五代領導人換屆前夕，同時，當前中國的經濟疲弱、道德下滑，對中國構成了問題。
旅居荷蘭的時政評論人士立裡向《新唐人》表示，按照目前大陸政經充滿不確定性的情勢發展下去，未來將和蘇聯一樣走向崩潰。
立裡：「蘇聯共產帝國直到崩潰前一刻，人們一直都沒預料到，還以為它會長期維持穩定存在下去。所有專制帝國的崩潰都是重復這樣的故事；沒有崩潰前，看起來總是強大無比威風八面，無數的奴才效忠做幫兇，鑽營食利。而一旦大廈將傾，則樹倒猢猻散，牆倒眾人推。」
時事評論員藍述認為，中共信奉共產主義，而共產主義卻和人類最基本的仁道、人性背道而馳。中共暴力革命信奉的槍桿子裡面出政權，就是否定人性善的一面。
時事評論員藍述：「第一代人為之奮鬥，第二代人的時候，可能覺得在這個文化領域過的很不舒服，第三代、第四代可能就很難在這個文化中繼續生存下去。因為它是個反人類的文化，它和人性是徹底作對的，在這種情況下，一定時間人就不在相信它了。中國共產黨，它已經徹底在民眾中失去它執政的威信。 」
2001年出版的「中國即將崩潰」一書作者章家敦預測：中國社會體制因種種問題將在少至五年、大至十年內崩潰。章家敦分析指出，北京表面看來平靜，實則暗潮洶湧，中國社會改變正在加速，在敏感時刻，各地出現連串暴動，都有革命的隱喻。
立裡：「因為這種政權基礎是謊言和暴力，人們心中早就明白一切都是假的，只是為了眼前的利益而順從暴政，它早就喪失了繼續存在的根本道德基礎，因此其崩潰也是必然的，雖然何時崩潰是偶然的。」
《紐約時報》的文章認為，習近平，這個將成為中國下任國家主席的人，也將是中共第五代領導人。到目前為止，還沒有證據表明，習近平將成為像戈爾巴喬夫一樣的改革者。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/肖顏
NY Times: the precursor of collapse in China is just like that of the former Soviet Union
It was the fifth generation who ended Communist rule
in the former Soviet Union.
Analysis said that the Soviet Union fell because it became
morally and culturally weak.
As China prepares for its fifth generation, widespread moral
decline has long plagued China,"according to both ordinary and prominent Chinese,"the article reads.
New York Times (NY Times) said that the precursor
of collapse has shown up in China just like that of the former Soviet Union.
“Are we looking at the end game?" the article asks.
Do Communist states, perhaps, have a natural lifespan
as NY Times said? Here is what experts say.
Will communism come to an end at the fifth generation?
On May 25, NY Times published an article entitled,
“As China Marches Ahead, Is It On Solid Ground?"
The author, Didi Kirsten Tatlow, compares Chinese society
with that of the Soviet Union before its break-up,
and questions if we are looking at the end game of
Chinese Communism.
The author also cited Leon Aron of the American Enterprise
Institute.
In an essay published in Foreign Policy magazine last year,
Leon argued that the Soviet Union didn’t fall because
it was economically weakened,
despite its profound challenges in that realm.
Nor was the Soviets’ war in Afghanistan the death knell,
though it was a burden.
“The Soviet Union fell because it was morally and culturally
weakened," Mr. Aron stated to the NY Times.
The NY Times article also said that widespread moral decline
has long plagued China, according to both ordinary and prominent Chinese.
Even prime minister Wen Jiabao, at a news conference
in March, said that Chinese society and politics suffer from corruption and a lack of credibility.
Nikolai I. Ryzhkov, former prime minister of Soviet Union,
was blunt about what Soviet society had become: “(We) stole
from ourselves, took and gave bribes, lied in the reports,
in newspapers, from high podiums, wallowed in our lies,
hung medals on one another.
And all of this – from top to bottom and from bottom to top."
The article also said that these reports of a weakening
economy combined with concern over morals pose a question
for China as it prepares for its fifth generation of
post-revolutionary leaders —
the same generation that ended Communist rule
in the former Soviet Union.
Li Li, current affairs commentator residing in Holland,
told New Tang Dynasty TV that the Chinese communism
is going bankrupt just like the Soviet Union, as China’s
economy develops with hidden uncertainties.
Li Li: “Similarly, people thought the Soviet Union regime
would sustain until its break-up. All the tyrannical regimes repeat the same story.
They look powerful, with slaves as accomplices and stooges
taking advantage.
There is an old saying that a tree falls and the monkeys scatter.
And when the regime is about to collapse, everyone will give it a push."
Lan Shu, current affairs commentator, said that the communism
worshipped by CCP goes against fundamental humanity.
CCP believes that political power grows out of guns,
which rejects the goodness of human nature.
Lan Shu, current affairs commentator: “The first generation
fought for it, the second found it uncomfortable,
and the third and fourth struggle to survive, as it goes against
humanity and the whole human society.
Under such circumstances, gradually, people don’t trust
it anymore.
CCP has completely lost its prestige among the public."
Gordon Zhang, the author of The Coming Collapse of China
published in 2001, predicted that in 5 to 10 years, China’s social system will collapse due to various problems.
Zhang said that many undercurrents flow beneath
the deceptively calm surface of Beijing, and China’s social reform is accelerating.
A series of riots happened over the country on sensitive
occasions show the precursor of revolution.
Li Li said: “A tyrannical regime is based on lies and force,
so the public clearly knows that it is unreliable, but simply obey it for their personal interests.
The regime has lost its basic moral foundation, therefore
its collapse is not avoidable, (we) just don’t know when."
The NY Times article said that Xi Jinping, the man tapped
to become China’s next president, will also be a fifth-generation leader.
“So far, no one has made a convincing argument that Mr. Xi
is a reformer like Mr. Gorbachev," says the article.