【新唐人2012年5月23日訊】王立軍逃亡美領館，將中共內鬥全面分裂的政治醜聞，向國際社會曝光。目前已導致薄熙來垮臺，周永康面臨落馬。當局對王立軍如何判罪，成為人們關注的焦點。日前香港一份有影響力的英文媒體報導，王立軍案下月將在四川成都審理，罪名可能是「叛國罪」，且可能會被處以死刑。但分析認為，王立軍被判死刑的可能性不大，最高「無期徒刑」。接下來請看專家的分析解讀。
星期一發行的《南華早報》引述知情人士的話說，中央成立了專案組，可能在下個月開庭審理王立軍案件，他將以「叛國罪」受到審判。消息人士說，對王立軍的審判將會秘密進行，如果罪名成立，王立軍可能被判處死刑。
對此，時事評論員夏小強認為，王立軍被判死刑的可能性不大，最高是無期徒刑。
時事評論員夏小強：「因為王立軍出走美國領館，他把中共高層的分裂和內幕暴露在世界，同時，也使美國政府有史以來，有機會介入中共高層內部，並在其中發揮一定作用。向美方提供了他掌控的內幕和機密，他這樣做的目地就是為了保命。」
2月13號，習近平訪美期間，美國媒體傳出王立軍的爆料，指稱：周永康為延續在中共十八大之後的權力，擬定了一個完整攻擊習近平的計劃，並且將在隔年的新年過後實施。
計劃是，透過海外媒體，釋放出對習近平的各種指責和批判，削弱習近平的權力，然後幫助薄熙來接任政法委書記。在薄熙來掌握武警、公安系統後，時機許可時，強迫習近平交權，預計2014年前，將已接任中共總書記的習近平趕下臺，甚至在必要時逮捕習近平。
夏小強：「這就證明了美國手中是有料的，再加上美國政府在處理王立軍事件時，因為沒有給王立軍庇護而受到外界和國會質疑，從這一點上來講，中共迫於美方的壓力，判王立軍死刑的可能性不大。」
曾任瀋陽市公安局副局長、司法局局長兼黨委書記的韓廣生，與王立軍熟悉。韓廣生接受《自由亞洲電臺》專訪時表示，王立軍跑到美國駐成都領事館，無論甚麼理由，都是不能被中共所理解和諒解的。他讓中共在全世界面前，尤其在意識形態的敵人面前，丟了大臉，令中共惱羞成怒，所以他不可能被饒恕。
時事評論員史達則表示，王立軍本來應該判死罪，因為他開啟了一個躲領館的浪潮，這違反中共的家法幫規，一般會被「殺一儆百」。但因為王立軍，才扯出了薄熙來案子，王也算是戴罪立功。
時事評論員史達：「在被胡溫控制下，他（王立軍）一定反戈一擊有功，他把周薄所謂的壞事情，全部給抖出來，但是他一定給胡溫提出一個條件，這個條件就是要保命。最主要的是，其實王立軍是個活證人，活口證人，有他的存在，就可以把薄熙來跟周永康他們的罪行定罪，那麼保住他，就是周永康以後永遠會被胡溫攥在手心裡。」
《南華早報》還表示，中共中央領導層期望年底「十八大」舉行前，先處理好薄熙來、谷開來和王立軍的案件，原因是，薄熙來的下臺引發外界對中共高層分裂的無窮揣測。
夏小強：「其實大家都知道，薄熙來案件不是胡溫習當局的最後目標，對胡溫習現在最大的挑戰和壓力，是如何處理周永康、以及處理周永康之後有可能帶來的震盪，胡溫習在十八大之前，不僅僅是要處理完周永康，而且要完成胡溫這屆政府和江澤民血債幫罪行的完全切割。」
獨立評論員洪劍認為，抽絲剝繭可能更符合胡溫的風格。也就是「溫火煮江蛤蟆」。
獨立評論員洪劍：「胡溫當前最需要做的就是徹底清除血債派，徹底與血債派罪行切割。血債派經過這麼多年的經營，勢力盤根錯節，清除還是需要時間的。」
但夏小強分析，如果在下個月就給王立軍案下結論，說明中共高層他們要加緊與周永康和江澤民血債幫的完全切割，同時，習近平這屆新政府也不再延續迫害法輪功政策，可能他們感到對時間的緊迫，要加緊整個行動的節奏。
採訪編輯/常春/後製/蕭宇
Analysts: Wang Lijun Faces Treason Charge:
Death Penalty or Life Sentence?
Wang Lijun fled to the U.S. Consulate and
exposed Chinese Communist Party (CCP) infighting.
This exposed a political scandal to the world.
It triggered the downfall of Bo Xilai and also perhaps
Zhou Yongkang’s dismissal.
It is becoming a public concern about what the
authorities will do with Wang.
Hong Kong media report that Wang would stand trial for
treason next month in Chengdu, Sichuan Province.
Wang could face the death penalty.
Analysts said that Wang could hardly be sentenced
to death, but could receive a life sentence.
On Monday, South China Morning Post cited inside sources
saying the central regime set up a task force.
They may put Wang on trial for treason next month.
The sources said that the trial would take place secretly,
and Wang might be sentenced to death if found guilty.
Xia Xiaoqiang, current affairs commentator thinks it is
unlikely Wang would be sentenced to death. It will be likely to be life imprisonment at most.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “Wang Lijun fled to the U.S. consulate,
and had the CCP split-up, and its inside stories exposed.
Meanwhile, it gave the U.S. government the first ever
opportunity to interfere in the high-levels of the CCP, and have an influence.
By providing the U.S. with these confidential facts,
Wang’s purpose was to protect his life.”
On Feb.13, during Xi Jinping’s visit to the U.S.,
U.S. media reported the Wang incident.
In order to grasp power after the 18th Congress,
Zhou Yongkang planned a military coup against Xi Jinping.
It would take effect after this new year.
Zhou’s plan was to spread rumors via overseas media,
criticizing Xi and weakening Xi’s power.
He would then support Bo to take over as Political
and Legislative Affairs Committee Secretary.
Once Bo controlled the Armed Police and Public Security,
he would take the chance to force Xi to step down.
They also planned to remove Xi Jinping before 2014,
who would then be CCP General Secretary. If necessary, they would arrest him.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “This proves that the U.S. has
documents in hands.
In addition, the U.S. government was questioned
by Congress about refusing Wang Lijun’s asylum.
On this point, under the pressure from the U.S., the CCP
will be unlikely to charge Wang with the death penalty.”
Han Guangsheng, former Shenyang Vice Chief of Police,
is familiar with Wang Lijun.
Han told Radio Free Asia that whatever reason Wang fled
to the U.S. consulate, the CCP won’t accept it.
Wang exposed the CCP to the world, particularly making
it lose face in front of it’s enemy (the U.S.).
The CCP is furious and won’t forgive him.
Commentator Shi Da said that Wang should be charged
with the death penalty.
As he set an example of fleeing to the consulate,
this is against CCP domestic rules.
Generally, the CCP rule is “kill one to warn others”.
However, because Wang triggered the Bo Xilai affair,
Wang’s achievement could reduce his crimes.
Shi Da: “Under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao’s control,
Wang disclosed Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai’s corruption.
However, Wang would request a condition to Hu-Wen,
to secure his life.
The most important thing is, Wang is a live witness;
with his presence, Bo and Zhou can be charged.
To keep Wang alive, Zhou will be in
Hu-Wen’s hands forever.”
South China Morning Post also said that central regime
leaders hoped to deal with Bo, Gu Kailai and Wang Lijun well before the 18th Congress.
This is because Bo’s downfall has aroused outsider
speculation about CCP infighting.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “As we all know, dealing with the Bo case
isn’t Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping’s final goal.
The biggest challenge and pressure for them is how to deal
with Zhou Yongkang, and what influence this could have.
Before the 18th Congress, Hu, Wen and Xi not only need
to deal with Zhou.
They also need to draw a clear line with
Jiang Zemin’s “Bloody Faction”.
Independent commentator Hong Jian believes that making
a painstaking investigation is more like Hu-Wen’s style.
That is to “Slowly boil the frog (indicating Jiang Zemin).”
Hong Jian: “At present, the highest priority for Hu-Wen
is to completely eliminate the 『Bloody Faction』.
To completely separate from the Bloody Faction’s crimes.
The Bloody Faction’s forces are complicated, and operated
over many years, so it takes time to be eliminated.”
Xia Xiaoqiang analyzed that if the Wang case has a result
next month, it indicates high-level CCP leaders have
stepped up the separation between themselves
and Jiang’s Bloody Faction.
Meanwhile, Xi Jinping’s new era won’t continue the
persecution policy towards Falun Gong.
It is possible that they sensed their time is up,
and must be hurry to take action.