【新唐人2012年4月19日訊】溫家寶曾多次提到政治體制改革，在薄熙來事件爆發後，中國的體制改革更加引發輿論關注。日前法國媒體引述傳聞說，溫家寶的政改方案已獲得通過。但是這項傳聞，真的能像傳出消息者所盼望的那樣——「保佑中國，保佑佔世界人口20%的中國人!」嗎? ，請看專家的分析解讀。
《法國國際廣播電臺》援引海外華文網站《縱覽中國》15號的刊文說，「北京文化人聚集地萬聖書園的老闆娘’醒客張’14日在新浪微博說：看到確切消息，溫的改革建議、平反建議已被確認了！」文章同時還引述了北京資深媒體人高瑜的話說：「從體制內部聽聞了相關消息。 」
美國「喬治梅森大學」教授章天亮，期待溫家寶能夠改變中國的政治環境，把自由、公正、法制、人權的概念帶給中國。
章天亮：「對於溫家寶改革的具體措施，我們還沒有看到，所以也很難做一個具體的評論，當然我們對溫家寶本人報以善意的期待，希望他能夠通過他在那個特別環境的努力，能夠把自由、公正、法制、人權，這些概念能夠帶到中國去，讓中國形成一個良性的政治環境。」
但是就目前中國的局勢來看，章天亮認為，溫家寶談政改，「現在有點太早了」。
章天亮：「因為我覺得中共內部現在整個的這一場鬥爭，還沒有結束，特別像薄熙來、周永康，還有周永康後面的羅幹、江澤民等等，在處理他們過程中，其實這種緊張程度不亞於一場戰爭，至少能夠把這些作惡多端的人先控制起來。」
時事評論員史達也認為，清除江系「血債派」是談政改的第一個前提。
時事評論員史達：「 我當然聽到這個消息很高興了，但是呢，如果政改要成功的話，我覺得有幾個前提，第一個就是說，要去掉真正的那些反對派，包括江系血債派，怎麼樣把他們清除掉。還有一個就是政改改甚麼?是黨內改，還是說把共產黨也改了。」
流亡西藏精神領袖達賴喇嘛，也從溫家寶有關「不容文革在中國重演」的講話中，看到了希望的徵兆。星期一他在美國夏威夷說，西藏2008年危機的原因，是同樣一場文化大革命的捲土重來。但是，達賴喇嘛說，西藏地區仍然有「槍桿子的崇拜者」，而且「從以往的經驗來看，在少數民族地區黨政的領導人，越左越強硬，對內屠殺的越嚴厲，反而會獲得提升。」所以在這樣的一種政治環境之下，他覺得，現在還看不到溫家寶所說的政改。
史達認為，「共產黨」才是真正阻止中國社會進步的原因。
史達：「因為不清除血債派的話，可能，這政改是不能進行到底的，那也不能保佑中國。政改的方向其實相當的重要，如果我們只是來個半調子，只是政改了一部分，那不是徹底的政改，你要政改，就要包括全部中國人，把中國良心犯，把中國受迫害的人群，讓他們所有的人都做到心服口服，這樣才能真正的保佑到中國。」
章天亮提出，當這些「血債派」被清除之後，還需要一個重要的步驟，就是朝野之間商量怎麼往前走。但是，章天亮認為，「共產黨這樣的邪惡的體制，是不應該再存在下去了。」
採訪編輯/常春 後製/朱娣
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Will Wen’s Political Reform Bring Blessings to Twenty Percent of the World’s Population?
Wen Jiabao has repeatedly discussed political reform. Since Bo Xilai’s case was exposed, China’s institutional reform draws attention from around the world.
A French media recently reported that Premier Wen’s reform package has allegedly been passed. But will the reform really benefit the Chinese, who account for 20% world population, as claimed? Please see our expert analysis.
Based on an article posted on the 15th from an overseas Chinese website, China In Perspective, Radio France Internationale reported that Thinker Zhang,
owner of WanSan Book Garden, a Beijing intellectuals gathering place, posted on Sina Weibo microblogging, “Saw a message saying that Wen’s proposals of reform and vindication have been confirmed! The article also indicated that Gao Yu, Beijing Evening News senior journalist said he allegedly “Learned this information from (a source) within the regime.”
George Mason University professor Zhang Tianliang hopes Wen Jiabao will change China’s political environment and bring the concept of freedom, justice, rule of law, human rights to China.
Zhang Tianliang: “Since we have not seen Wen Jiabao’s reform measures, it is difficult to make a specific comment. Of course, we keep good faith in Wen Jiabao. We hope through his efforts in his particular environment,
concepts of freedom, justice, rule of law, human rights, and a healthy political environment can be brought to China."
Zhang Tianliang also thinks Wen Jiaobao’s political reform “seems a little too early” according to the current situation.
Zhang Tianliang: “I don’t think the infighting within the CCP has ended.
The tension during the process of dealing with Bo Xilai, Zhou Yongkang,
and people behind them such as Luo Gan and Jiang Zemin is as much as a war, or at least a restriction to these evil doers."
Commentator Shi Da also believes that eliminating the Jiang “bloody debt” faction is a prerequisite to political reform.
Commentator Shi Da: “Of course I am very happy about this news. However, I feel there are several prerequisites to a successful political reform. The first is to completely remove the real opposition, including Jiang’s bloody debt group. Then what should the reform correct, the party or the CCP completely?"
The exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, also saw signs of hope in Wen Jiabao’s speech regarding “no Cultural Revolution in China again". On Monday in Hawaii he said the cause of the 2008 Tibet crisis is like a reoccurrence of the Cultural Revolution. However, the Dalai Lama said that in Tibet there are still “admirers of the gun,” and “from past experience,
those party and government leaders in minority areas who are more leftist, tougher, and conduct the more stringent internal massacre, will be promoted.”
Under such a political environment, he feels there won’t be the political reform Wen Jiabao mentioned.
Shi Da believes the Communist Party is the real cause of the halt to Chinese society’s progress.
Shi Da: “The political reform won’t possibly be carried out to the end if the bloody debt group is not completely eliminated, and thus there won’t be blessings brought to China. The direction of political reform is in fact quite important, if we only come to a partial political reform, it is not a thorough political reform. A political reform should convince every Chinese person,
including Chinese prisoners of conscience, and all the persecuted Chinese, that China is truly blessed."
Zhang Tianliang indicates that after the bloody debt group is cleared, there is also an important next step. That is, for the ruling and opposition parties to discuss how to move forward. However, Zhang Tianliang believes that an evil regime such as the Communist Party should no longer exist."