【新唐人2012年3月21日訊】隨著薄熙來的倒臺，他所宣揚的所謂「重慶模式」是否還有市場？以汪洋為代表的「廣東模式」是否能救得了中國？改革的路還有多遠？中國將往何處去？這都是中國最近這場政治地震後，帶來的餘震回音，下面請看看，專家和學者們對這些問題的分析和探討。

最近兩天，中共中央政治局委員、廣東省委書記汪洋公開強調，要保持政治上的清醒，嚴格按照黨的原則和政策辦事，同時他表明，廣東經濟社會建設取得的巨大成績，是堅持改革開放的結果。

那麼，這種在共產黨領導下的改革開放，能解決中國的根本問題嗎？

美國「喬治梅森大學」教授章天亮博士：「中共這種政治體制改革，它能改到甚麼程度，我覺得不能抱甚麼希望，除非胡溫能下決心拋棄中共，因為共產黨這個集團，它是個犯罪集團，如果要是中國實現轉型的話，這些中共的官員都要送上法庭的，除非現行的中共領導人胡溫拋棄中共了，這樣的話，怎麼改革的話，大家還是覺得比較有希望的。」

「中國社會民主黨」中央委員會主持人劉因全認為，「重慶模式」是大倒退，但是在中共的體制內談改革，是沒有希望的。

劉因全：「廣東模式目前做的這一步，還是救不了中國的，共產黨要靠他自己改革很難，還是要靠黨外人士，異議人士，包括宗教信仰人士，要不斷的給共產黨施加壓力。」

不過美國「哥倫布亞大學」訪問學者趙岩認為，把薄熙來下臺當作中國「肅清左派」的終止，中國的改革就可前進一大步，這種認識過於樂觀，他說，「兩會」打著學習美國的幌子修改刑法，就是歷史的倒退，並沒有對異議人士留任何餘地。

趙岩：「今年的兩會，修正刑法第73條，這是歷史倒退的一個『惡法』，美國是真正面對恐怖主義分子的時候，他使用的這個條款，但是它不是在美國本土上使用，美國本土，你不管逮捕誰，都要及時的通知家屬，大陸通過的這個刑法修正案，就完全是對著異議人士來的，也不用通過檢察院批捕，就可以逮捕，逮捕到甚麼時候，都很難說，所以這個法律，它本身是一個倒退。」

章天亮還表示，胡溫對薄熙來的處理，意味著胡溫和江派已經攤牌，但江派還可能垂死反撲。他說從軍委副主席郭伯雄最近的一篇文章可以看出，江澤民和周永康可能動用軍隊和武警來對抗胡溫。

章天亮：「因為他通篇講話，都沒有講中國對外的一些威脅，他都是講十八要召開了，軍隊要聽胡主席指揮，所以我想他也在暗示，江係人馬周永康他們可能要反撲，會動用一些軍隊或者武警，在這個時候，胡溫一定要牢牢的掌握軍隊，像中央警衛團、北京衛戌區，如果是這種情況的話，我們可以說薄熙來是徹底完蛋了。」

最近，左派的網站和唱紅窩點遭到整肅，薄熙來的親信也紛紛下馬，廣東《珠江晚報》在頭條報導薄熙來失勢的同時，以同樣大小的字體在同等的位置，刊載一張壓土機正在輾碎充公得來的假冒商品的照片，和「假貨，你也有今天」的字樣，很多人認為這是在諷刺薄熙來。

採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/孫寧

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Can the “Guangdong Model” save China?

With the fall of Bo Xilai, does the Chongqing Model that he promoted still have a market?

Can the “Guangdong Model” promoted by Wang Yang save China?

How long is the road to reform?

Where is China going in future?

These are questions raised after the recent political turmoil in China.

Below is analysis by scholars and experts in the area.

In the last two days, Wang Yang, member of the Political

Bureau central committee and Guangdong party secretary,

openly stressed the need to remain politically conscious

and strictly follow principles and policies.

He also expressed that Guangdong must continue to

achieve in economic and social developments in order to obtain the results of reform and opening up.

Then, can such reform and opening up under Chinese

Communist Party (CCP) rule resolve China’s fundamental issues?

George Mason University Professor Zhang Tianliang:

“I don’t have much hope for the reformation of the CCP political structure,

unless Hu and Wen can be determined to abandon the CCP.

Otherwise, under the CCP system, it is a criminal group.

If China implements a transformation, then these

CCP officials will all be sued in court,

unless the current CCP leaders Hu and Wen abandon the CCP;

then in this case, we will feel more hope about the issue reform.”

Chinese Social Democratic Party Central Committee member

Liu Yinquan believes the Chongqing Model is a big step backward,

and talking about reform within the CCP framework is hopeless.

Liu Yinquan, “What the Guangdong model has done

so far is not enough to save China.

The CCP trying to reform by itself is very difficult, it requires

non-party members, dissidents, including religious activists, to continue applying pressure.”

However, Columbia University visiting scholar Zhao Yan

believes that viewing the fall of Bo Xilai as a big step forward is too optimistic.

He expressed that when the Two Meetings (high level

internal meetings) members modified criminal law under the guise of learning from the US,

it was a step backward in history, and didn’t leave any

leeway for dissidents.

Zhao Yan, “This year’s Two Meetings members

modified criminal law article 73.

This is an 『evil law』 and a step backward in history, the US

only use this article against terrorists, not within the U.S.

Within the US, relatives must be immediately notified

upon arrest of their family member.

Mainland China uses this criminal law modification to target

dissidents and to arrest without permission from the Procuratorate.

Length of detainment is unknown.

That’s why this law is a step backward.”

Zhang Tianliang also expressed that Hu and Wen’s treatment of

Bo Xilai means they are declaring war on the Jiang faction, but the Jiang faction will still try to counterattack.

From a recent article by military commission vice-chairman

Guo Boxiong shows that Jiang Zemin and Zhou Yongkang might mobilize the military and armed police to fight Hu and Wen.

Zhang Tianliang, “because in his speech,

he didn’t mention external threats,

his words were all about how the military should follow

command of Hu during the 18th National Congress.

I think he is trying to hint that the Jiang faction and

Zhou Yongkang will try to counterattack,

and will mobilize some of the military and armed police,

so Hu and Wen must firmly control the military,

like the Central Guards Regiment and the Beijing guard district.

If this this happens, then Bo Xilai is completely over.”

Recently, left-wing websites and singing red songs centers

were purged, and many of Bo Xilai’s followers were fired.

Guangdong Zhujiang Nightly reported Bo Xilai’s losing office

as headline, and also showed footage of a bulldozer crushing counterfeit goods.

The slogan was “Fake: you also have a day like this.”

Many believe this is mocking Bo Xilai.