【新唐人2012年2月9日讯】“国际货币基金”组织IMF在最近发出警告说，欧元区债务危机引发的世界经济衰退，可能导致中国经济增长率大幅下降4个百分点。经济专家分析认为，这个怵目惊心的数据造成的影响，不仅将冲击中国的经济，还会动摇中共的政权。
“国际货币基金”组织IMF在周一发表了《中国经济展望报告》。报告中说，中国今年的增长率预测由去年9月的9%下调到8.25%，已经是没有什么疑议的了。而欧洲债务危机将带来全球经济震荡，这一动荡如果产生连锁反应，将会使中国2012年8.2%的增长预期下降4个百分点。
“国际货币基金”组织于今年一月也曾发表报告指出，世界经济总增长降低1.75%的情况很可能会发生，如果这样，中国经济增长将降低4个百分点。
美国“纽约城市大学”经济学教授陈志飞表示，如果IMF预想成真，说明中国经济的“硬着陆”是无法避免的。
美国“纽约城市大学”经济学教授陈志飞：“造成的后果是不可想像的，对整个世界经济的冲击是非常巨大的，但是最怵目惊心的将是中国国内。”
陈志飞分析，造成对中国经济的巨大影响，将包括失业率的冲高，通货膨胀的飞速上升，借贷系统，整个银行系统的崩溃。
美国《华尔街日报》报导，惠普国际评级(Fitch Ratings)周二表示，在全球经济增速放缓的同时，中国的房地产市场以及银行业都可能对中国经济构成威胁。而中国经济出现“硬着陆”是对2012年全球经济的最大潜在风险。
英国广播公司BBC中文网援引《每日电讯报》7号刊登的一篇文章说，因欧元区债务危机影响导致对亚洲货物需求量的减少，上海港1月份的航运量大幅萎缩，同比下降一百多万吨，高达4%，预示着中国经济将进入寒流。
台湾“中华经济研究院”研究员吴惠林教授向《新唐人》表示，中国经济跨下来，台湾将受害最深。
台湾“中华经济研究院”研究员吴惠林：“台湾跟中国的经济联系的程度非常的密切，所以会受到连带的影响。应该大家对这种事情，不要太过一厢情愿，期望他们还能够维持过去，让那个所谓的规划持续，那是不太可能的。”
此外，陈志飞还认为，最大、最根本的冲击可能会体现在对中国政体的影响。因为GDP的增长在中国是最大的政治任务，是中共用来维持一党专政的唯一的或者是最强有力的借口。
美国“纽约城市大学”经济学教授陈志飞：“如果这个借口，或者说给它统治带来合法性的一个经济发展的盛宴彻底结束，以这种急刹车硬着陆的方式结束的话，将要带来的政治动荡，群体事件以及全民要求共产党撤出历史舞台的呼声，将会使历史重新书写这一页。”
大陆媒体对于“中国可能面临经济增长猛下跌4%”的警告，到目前为止并没有报导。
新唐人记者刘惠、李静、黎安安采访报导。
IMF: China’s Economic Growth Will Drop By 4%
IMF (International Monetary Fund) recently warned that
the global recession, triggered by Euro-zone’s debt crisis, will lead to a 4% decline of China’s economic growth.
Economic experts think the impact will be not only on China’
economy, but will also shake the Chinese communist regime.
IMF published “China’s Economic Outlook" on Monday.
The report stated that China’s growth forecast this year
was adjusted from 9% to 8.25%.
The European debt crisis will bring a global economic shock.
The ripple effect will make China’s economic
growth drop by 4% from 8.2%.
IMF issued a report in January, pointing out that the world
economy’overall growth is likely to decrease by 1.75%.
If so, China’s economic growth will be reduced by 4%.
New York City University’s Professor of Economics,
Chen Zhifei, commented on the issue.
Prof. Chen thinks, if IMF’s prediction becomes a reality,
China’s economic “hard landing" is unavoidable.
Prof. Chen: “The consequences are unimaginable
and the impact on the world economy is huge.
But the most shocking consequences
would be inside China."
Prof. Chen analyzed that the huge impacts include increasing
unemployment rate, rapid rise in inflation and lending system, and the collapse of the banking system.
US Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday,
about HP’s international credit rating (Fitch Ratings).
It said, with the global economic slowdown, China’s housing
market and banking sector are both likely to pose a threat to China’s economy.
China’s economic “hard landing" in 2012,
is the greatest potential risk for the global economy.
BBC.CN cited Daily Telegraph’article about the Euro-zone’s
debt crisis leading to reduction of the demand for Asian goods.
It stated that Shanghai port’s shipping in January shrunk
dramatically, with a drop by more than a million ton.
This is indicative that China’s economy
will enter cold times.
Professor Wu Huilin from China Economic Research Institute,
Taiwan, said Taiwan will be affected by China’s economy fall.
Prof. Wu: “Taiwan has very close economic ties with China,
and both are interlinked.
So we should not expect these ties to survive.
It is unlikely to maintain that so-called planning policy."
Besides, Prof. Chen believes that the largest and the most
fundamental impact may be felt by the Chinese regime.
GDP growth in China is the biggest political task and CCP’s
(China’s Communist Party) only or most powerful excuse to maintain the one-party dictatorship.
Prof. Chen: “If a “hard landing" brings down this excuse,
or feast that gives the legitimacy of its controlling status, this will lead to a political turbulence.
There will be mass protests demanding that the CCP exits
the stage of history. This in itself will rewrite the history."
The mainland media did not report anything on the warning
of “China’s economic growth may decrease by 4%."
NTD reporters Liu Hui, Li Jing and Li Anan.
