【新唐人2012年2月4日訊】伊朗核武器問題引發的伊朗與歐美國家間的危機正在加深。美國國會通過一項新的制裁法案，試圖切斷伊朗的石油出口，歐盟也達成協議，將從7月開始對伊朗石油實行全面禁運。伊朗當局則封鎖霍爾木茲海峽作為回應，這一地區發生軍事衝突的危險也一天天加劇。
伊朗作為中國第三大原油供應國，大約每天50萬桶，一旦失去伊朗的石油進口則是對中國能源供給的直接衝擊。不過，隨著歐美明確表示對伊朗進行經濟制裁後，對中共政府是個不小考驗。
美國財政部長蓋特納在1月上旬訪問北京時，要求中國停止進口伊朗原油，中共政府公開拒絕了這一要求。
在中國訪問的德國總理默克爾2月2號也表示，希望中國在制裁伊朗方面態度積極。不過，溫家寶則聲稱，制裁不可能從根本上解決伊朗核問題，動武更將造成中東和世界局勢動盪，對各方都不利。
歐洲議會全會2月2號通過了制裁伊朗決議，但決議文本說：歐洲議會對中國拒絕支持聯合國安理會對伊朗制裁，表示遺憾。
國際時事評論員文昭：「從中國的能源安全角度來講，不希望中東發生大的變故，它既不希望伊朗發展核武器，也不希望西方制裁伊朗。不制裁伊朗還有其他方面的考慮，因為中共一直想在中東發展影響力，那麼伊朗是它打的一張牌。」
文昭表示，伊朗核計劃是中共外交上可以利用的一張牌，如果伊朗核問題解決了，中共在伊朗的這張牌上就沒有價值了。如果強硬支持伊朗，又會招致世界反對，對它更不利。所以，中共在伊朗核問題上進退兩難。
伊朗與世界和平主旋律格格不入，不惜與全世界交惡，但是中共卻屢屢在政治上予以聲援，一直反對對伊朗實施單邊制裁。
「北大教授」孔慶東道出了原因，他說：伊朗是境外最後能夠支持中共的根據地。
文昭：「中共政權是對現有國際秩序的挑戰者、顛覆者，它是想改變現有的國際趨勢。但是基於暫時的利益需要，它需要和世界上其他主要的國家合作，它需要在一定程度上接受現有的國際秩序。」
不過，美國「克萊蒙麥肯納學院」教授裴敏欣認為，北京的實用主義者知道，以色列由於內部的政治壓力，極可能會對伊朗的核設施實施先發制人的攻擊，西方採取的制裁伊朗可能是唯一能替代以色列軍事行動的舉措。因此北京會採取新中間路線，將繼續反對西方的石油禁運建議。北京在這個危險的核戲劇中，幾乎沒有別的牌可以打。
2月2號，歐洲議會議員對伊朗發出了警告，伊朗封鎖霍爾木茲海峽可能導致地區衝突，將「招致國際社會的報復」。
據國際能源署預測，中國對石油進口依賴度有可能升至80%。
中共媒體也說，中國40%的進口原油是來自海灣地區，如果海灣地區石油供應中斷的話，以目前的石油儲備，中國只能堅持46天。所以如果打一場200天的戰爭，那麼對中國來說，影響是非常非常巨大的，中國或成為伊朗石油危機中的最大輸家。
新唐人記者劉惠、宋風、周天採訪報導。
China Possible Biggest Loser in Iranian Oil Crisis.
The Iran nuclear issue has deepened the crisis between Iran,
EU and the US.
U.S. Congress passed a new sanction bill,
attempting to cut off Iran’s oil exports.
The EU also reached an agreement to impose a full
embargo on Iranian oil from this July.
In response, the Iran regime blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
The region faces increasing risk of military conflict.
As the 3rd largest crude oil supplier for China,
Iran exports about 500,000 barrels a day.
The termination of oil import from Iran will be a direct hit
on China’s energy supplies.
The economic sanctions against Iran, initiated by the EU
and US, are no small challenge to the CCP regime.
U.S. Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, asked China to
stop oil imports from Iran during his Beijing visit in early Jan.
CCP authorities openly denied the request.
On Feb 2, German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke of this
issue in her visit to China.
She hoped sanctions against Iran were treated positively.
Yet CCP Premier Wen Jiabao claimed that the sanctions
cannot fundamentally resolve the Iranian nuclear issue.
Wen said the use of force will cause instability in the Middle
East and in the world, which is bad for all concerned parties.
A resolution of sanctions against Iran was passed by a
European Parliamentary plenary session on February 2.
The parliament said in the resolution:
“[Members] regret the ongoing refusal of China and Russia
in the UN Security Council to support sanctions against Iran.”
Wen Zhao, Commentator on international affairs:
“From the perspective of China’s energy security, it doesn’t
want to see a big change happen in the Middle East.
It neither hopes Iran develops nuclear weapons,
nor wants to see the West’s sanctions against Iran.
There are more factors involving CCP blocks from
sanctioning Iran.
The CCP regime has long wanted to be influential in the
Middle East. Iran is a card that it plays in politics."
Wen Zhao reasons that Iran’s nuclear program is a card
for the CCP to utilize in diplomacy.
If the Iranian nuclear issue is resolved, the card of Iran will
lose value for the CCP regime.
While if it gives hard-line support for Iran, it will incur world
opposition, which is more unfavorable to the regime.
That is to say, the CCP regime has fallen into a dilemma
over the Iranian nuclear issue.
Iran’s acts are sharply incongruous with the world’s
peace theme.
It even spares no cost in becoming enemy to the world.
However, the CCP regime repeatedly gives support
politically, and unilaterally refused sanctions against Iran.
The reason behind this was found from a talk of Kong
Qingdong, Professor from Peking University.
Iran is the last base area overseas that could support
the CCP, according to Kong.
Wen Zhao: “The CCP regime is a challenger and is
subversive towards the existing international order.
The regime wants to change the current international trends.
But in order to satisfy its temporary interests, it needs to
cooperate with other major countries.
It has to accept the existing international order,
to a certain extent.”
Minxin Pei, Professor at Claremont McKenna College,
gives his interpretation on the issue.
Beijing’s pragmatists know Israel will likely initiate attacks
on Iran’s nuclear facilities under internal political pressure.
The West’s sanctions against Iran may be the only measure
to replace Israel’s military operations, according to Pei.
In this context, the Beijing regime will take a new central
course.
That is, continuously opposing the West’s oil embargo
proposal.
Pei said that in this dangerous nuclear drama,
Beijing has no other cards to play.
On Feb 2, the European Parliament warned Iran.
Iran’s block of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger regional
conflicts.
The acts would “incur the revenge of the international
community".
The International Energy Agency forecasts that China’s
dependence on oil imports may rise to 80%.
CCP media said 40% of China’s imported crude oil
comes from the Gulf region.
If the oil supply from the Gulf region is disrupted,
China’s existing oil reserves can only last for 46 days.
If China gets involved in a 200-day war, the impact would
be enormously huge.
In this case, China may become the biggest loser
in the Iranian oil crisis.
NTD reporters Liu Hui, Song Feng and Zhou Tian