【新唐人2011年12月27日訊】12月25號是蘇聯解體20週年紀念日，俄羅斯民眾24號舉行大規模抗議示威，要求實現真正的民主選舉。而中共黨報《人民日報》發表長篇文章談蘇聯解體20年，一方面反西方、為中共體制辯護，另一方面也承認蘇聯解體是因為沒有實施真正的改革。但學者表示，共產黨本身就是中國政治體制改革的根本障礙，只有結束共產黨一黨專政，中國才能真正轉型。

1991年8月19號，蘇聯共產黨保守派發動政變，軟禁了當時的蘇聯總統戈爾巴喬夫。但是，在人民、軍隊和大多數蘇共黨員的反對下，政變僅僅維持3天就宣告失敗。

隨後俄羅斯總統葉利欽宣佈蘇共為非法組織，戈爾巴喬夫宣佈蘇共自動解散並辭去總書記職務，擁有2000萬黨員的蘇共隨即解體。12月25號，戈爾巴喬夫將國家權力移交給俄羅斯總統，蘇聯正式解體。

今年12月24號，俄羅斯一百多個城市再次爆發抗議示威，首都莫斯科有12萬人參加，戈爾巴喬夫等各界名人紛紛呼籲連任三屆的普京下臺。美國CNN報導說，抗議讓人聯想到20年前的蘇聯解體。

就在蘇聯解體20週年之際，中共《人民日報》26號發表題為「主動把握歷史的未來」的文章，聲稱「蘇聯解體是20世紀最具震撼力的事件之一」，「共產主義失敗了」，成為西方乃至世界的主導思維。

中國民主黨創辦人之一秦永敏表示，今天的中共已經沒有人信仰共產主義了。

秦永敏：「蘇共它有一個頑強的意識形態，它的意識形態的失敗也就是它這個制度的終結。中共沒有一個意識形態，它的意識形態是毛澤東思想還是鄧小平理論呢？是要搞共產主義還是要搞資本主義呢？今天的中共已經沒有任何意識形態了，它剩下的就是利益問題。」

中共黨報文章說，社會主義陣營「老大哥」消失，西亞、北非地區陷入動盪。儘管兩件事相隔20年，但是人們探尋「傳導效應」，最終指向都是中國的社會主義制度。

秦永敏：「從中國來說，我們主張的是和平轉型，那麼轉型的和平程度如何，很大程度上確實取決於當局是否能夠『放下屠刀、立地成佛』。它的意識形態上已經沒有了，它已經揚棄了共產主義那一套了，但是要搞甚麼，它也說不清楚，那就是維持現狀。你這個制度本身已經處於崩潰狀況，你還要維持現狀，這也不搞、那也不搞，那不是坐以待斃嗎？」

黨報文章也認為，蘇聯解體的一個重要原因，就是長期以來沒有實施真正意義上的改革，雖然有過一些修修補補，最後還是走進了死胡同。

文章承認，中國現有體制難以滿足民眾日益增長的訴求，新舊體制轉型成為趨勢。美國喬治梅森大學教授章天亮表示，共產黨本身就是中國政治體制改革的根本障礙。

章天亮：「中國各地風起雲湧的抗暴潮，之所以還沒有對中共統治造成根本性的動搖，就是因為這些人他們的抗爭，他們是以經濟利益作為唯一的訴求，不觸及到共產黨統治的本質。必須得在民眾普遍覺醒，把結束共產黨一黨專政作為一個主題的思想提出來，這個時候共產黨才可能解體。」

外界評論指出，「蘇聯的昨天」就是中國的今天和明天，中共領導層應抓緊歷史機遇，主動進行根本性的政治體制改革。而《九評共產黨》引發的退黨大潮，正在使全民走向精神覺醒，最終將促成中國和平轉型。

新唐人記者朱智善、李元翰、柏妮採訪報導。

Soviet’s Dissolution Forecasts CCP’s Transformation

Dec. 25 celebrates 20th anniversary of Soviet Union’s collapse.

On 24th, Russian people called for true democratic elections,

with large-scale demonstrations.

CCP’s mouthpiece People’s Daily published a long article.

Admitting Soviet Union’s failure is due to a lack of reform.

Yet CCP proclaims active transformation is in a

stable development.

Scholar says that CCP itself is the obstacle to China’s political reform,

so the real reform can be only happened with the termination of the Communist’s Regime.

Aug. 19, 1991, conservative Communists in Soviet house

arrested President Mikhail Gorbachev.

Under pressure from the people and army, the riot lasted only

three days.

Afterwards, Russian President Boris Yeltsin announced Soviet

Communist Party illegal.

Gorbachev announced dismissing the Party and resigned from

the Party’s Secretary General.

Soviet Communist Party with 20 million members

thus collapsed.

Dec. 25, Gorbachev handed over power to Russian President,

the Soviet Union formally dissolved.

Dec. 24, protests broke out in over 100 Russian cities,

with over 120,000 people participating in Moscow.

Gorbachev and other celebrities called for Putin to step down.

CNN says protests remind people of Soviet Union’s dissolution.

Dec. 26, CCP’s mouthpiece People’s Daily published an article,

“Seize the Future of History Actively.”

The article claimed that Soviet’s dissolution was one of the most

shocking incidents in 20th century.

“The fall of communism prevailed in the West,

even within the whole world.”

Qin Yongmin, co-founder of China’s Democratic Party said,

“Today, Chinese people no longer believe in communism.

Soviet Communist Party had a tenacious ideology,

whose failure ended Soviet’s political system.

Communist China does not have such an ideology.

Should it be Maoism or Deng’s theory, or something else?

Should China follow communist or capitalist path?

Today’s CCP has no ideology, only pursuit of private interests”.

CCP’s mouthpiece article said, “Big Brother" of socialist camp

has disappeared; West Asia, North Africa are now in turmoil.

Although 20 years apart, both incidents have “transfer effects",

pointing towards China’s socialist system.

Qin Yongmin stated: “We advocate a peaceful transition.

How peaceful it will be depends on whether CCP 『abandons arms and turns to virtues』.

CCP has discarded its Communist ideology,

but cannot tell which is the best road to follow.

At a time of crisis, it can do nothing but maintain the status quo.

Does it not equal waiting for death?

CCP’s articles also say that Soviet’s dissolution results from a

lack of real reform. All its attempts lead to dead ends.

The Article acknowledged that China’s current system fails to

meet the growing demands of the people. Institutional transformation becomes a trend.

Zhang Tianliang, professor at George Mason University said,

“CCP itself is the obstacle to China’s political reform”.

Zhang Tianliang quoted, “Current anti-CCP storms in all parts

of China have not shaken CCP’s base, since these people are fighting for economic benefits.

Only when the public awakens and challenges CCP’s dictatorship

can there be CCP’s disintegration”.

Public critics said Soviet’s past is today’s China and its future.

CCP should seize the historical opportunity to initiate

fundamental political reform.

The quit-CCP movement triggered by “Nine Commentaries on

the Communist Party" will lead to Chinese people’s spiritual awakening and ultimately China’s peaceful transformation.

NTD reporters Zhu Zhishan and Li Yuanhan