【新唐人2011年11月14日訊】今年中國房地產企業最期待的「金九銀十」高峰並沒有出現。相反，降價潮從京滬等一線城市蔓延到二三線城市。輿論普遍認爲，中國樓市下行拐點已經出現，泡沫開始破滅。中國銀監會前主席劉明康在日前舉行的財新峰會上再次聲稱，即使房價下跌5成，銀行仍然不會虧本。有專家指出，無論房價漲跌，受害的始終是老百姓。
在連續幾個月的小范圍試探性降價之後，上海、重慶、杭州等城市都出現了多個房地產項目大幅的降價促銷。
中國銀監會前主席劉明康在11號開幕的財新峰會上再次重申：就算房價下跌5成，銀行風險仍然可控。
他聲稱，目前中國房地產的銀行貸款在10萬億元以上。根據銀監會的壓力測試結果，當房價下跌40%時，銀行的貸款覆蓋率是110%﹔而最壞的情況發生，也就是當房價下跌50%，銀行的貸款覆蓋仍能達到100%，就是說，雖然利息不能回收，但本金沒有問題。
劉明康所謂「房價下降5成銀行貸款仍樂觀」的壓力測試結果，受到了業界的一致質疑。
工商聯合會房地產商會會長聶梅生在財新峰會上指出，有豐富經驗的開發商使盡渾身解數都賣不出去房子的時候，銀行把房子收了也是不能變賣出去，只是打了折的帳面資產。房價下跌4成，銀行就已經無法應對了。
財經評論家葉檀認為，「房價下跌50%銀行風險可控」的説法只是虛幻的安慰劑，任何投資品種下跌50%，就意味著打開了崩潰的大門。劉明康的説法是對投資品屬性不了解的大膽之言。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：“如果說房價跌這麼多他還可以照樣賺錢的話，銀行不會虧的話，那就是銀行也好，開發商也好，不知道他賺了多少錢，這利潤太高了，這絕對是暴利，這太厚顏無恥了。在美國的銀行的話，房價降20%的話那麽多銀行就破產了。”
《華商報》評論文章認爲，地方土地財政、銀行信貸和房地產商結成利益聯盟，共同催生了高房價，他們也是高房價的獲益者。房價升，傷的是買房的民衆﹔房價降，苦的也是買房的民衆。
文章認爲，中國樓市本身就存在著功利浮躁的反市場行為，不公平因素導致了高房價。變成房奴的普通民衆，本身就屬於非理性市場的受害者。若房價升降都由他們承擔，則造成了雙重的不公平。
一位不願透露姓名的大陸人士指出，很多地產商和地方政府利益勾結圈地，強拆老百姓的房子，空手套白狼壓榨民衆的情況非常普遍。
大陸人士：“每個中國的房地產商都是這樣的，官商勾結。有的賺就炒啊炒啊，把本來屬於老百姓的東西也搶光了。現在如果整個房價掉下來的話，全部都完蛋，最終受害的就是老百姓。”
另外，房地產市場景氣與否直接影響到建築、鋼鐵、水泥、電力和家電等行業。有經濟學家曾估算，中國約50%的GDP與房地產市場的命運相關。
興業銀行首席經濟學家魯政委認為，房價降多了不光地產商扛不住，老百姓也受害。成了房奴的不願房價跌﹔買不起房的，則一般是普通民衆和低收入群體，房價大跌將使中國經濟受到巨大衝擊，進而導致這部分人失業，同樣買不起房。
新唐人記者林莉、李明飛、蕭宇採訪報導。
China』s Banks No-loss With 50% Housing Price Drop?
A usual buying peak of September and October did not take
place in 2011, as expected by China』s property market.
On the contrary, a tidal wave of price cuts has spread from
first tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai to the second and
third tier cities. It is commonly believed that the downturn of
China』s property market has arrived, the bubble has begun
to burst. Former chairman of China Banking Regulatory
Commission (CBRC), Liu Mingkang, at recently held Caixin
summit, claimed again that 50% reduction of housing prices
would still keep China』s bank from suffering losses.
Experts say that, regardless of price ups and downs,
the ultimate victims are civilians.
After months of tentative small scale price-cuts,
many real estate projects in Shanghai, Chongqing,
Hangzhou and other cities have launched
great markdown promotions.
Ex-Chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission,
Liu Mingkang reiterated at the Caixin Summit,
opened on November 11, that even if house prices fall
by 50%, banking risk is still controllable.
Liu claimed that China』s current real estate bank loans
were over 10 trillion.
Stress test results of the China Banking Regulatory
Commission showed that when housing prices fall by 40%,
the banks’ provision coverage ratio would remain 110%.
In the worst case scenario that prices fall by 50%, the coverage ratio could still reach 100%.
That is, though the interest rate would be irrecoverable,
the principal amount would be no problem.
Liu』s claims were unanimously questioned by the industry.
China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce president,
Nie Meisheng, said at Caixin Summit that
when experienced property developers would not sell out
houses, the banks would fail too,
even if they take back the houses.
These assets would only be written-off.
“The banks would be unable to cope with a 40% decrease
in housing prices"
Financial commentator, Ye Tan, says that the claim of
“bank risk control at a 50% price drop” is merely an illusory placebo.
Any investment drop by 50% means opening the door
to the collapse.
Liu’s bold remarks shows that he does not understand
the investments.
Xie Tian (Professor, Aiken Business School,
University of South Carolina): “If housing prices fall so much he [an investor] can still make money, and the bank won』t be in the red, their profit is too high,
absolutely colossal profits, that’s too brazen.
If it were in the U.S., a 20% price drop in housing price could
cause a bank to go bankrupt. “
A commentary on Huashang Daily said that localized land
finance policy, bank credit institutions and real estate developers have formed an interests alliance.
They are beneficiaries by elevating the housing prices.
Rises in housing prices harms house buyers, while drops in housing prices afflicts them too.
The article comments that China’s property market itself
exhibits utilitarian anti-market behavior.
Unfair factors led to high housing prices.
Civilians who became mortgage slaves are the victims of
an irrational property market.
If the risks of property prices’ ups and downs are
all taken on by these civilian buyers, that would cause double unfairness.
An anonymous Chinese source said that many developers
and local authorities colluded to undertake land enclosure in order to forcibly demolish civilians houses.
Such tricks of squeezing civilians, that is,
gaining valuable things with nothing, has been very common in China.
A mainland Chinese says: “In China it’s common practice
for real estate developers to bribe government officials.
Working together, they drive the housing prices up, and
make all the profit. They strip the citizens of everything.
If right now housing prices take a dive, the housing
market will collapse, but the ultimate victims would be the people.
In addition, the real estate market directly impacts
other sectors like construction, steel, cement, electricity and household appliances, etc..
Economists have estimated that about half of China’s GDP
relied on the real estate industry.
Industrial Bank chief economist, Lu Zhengwei, said that
the big drop in house prices not only causes developers to suffer losses, but also harms civilians.
Those mortgage slaves do not want to see house prices
falling.
Generally, those who cannot afford housing are
the majority of the public and low income groups.
These people would face unemployment when China』s
economy is hit by a large scale housing price slump.
At that time, they will still unable to afford housing.
NTD reporters Lin Li, Li Mingfei and Xiao Yu