【新唐人2011年11月9日訊】在樓市調控政策影響下，北京和深圳相繼出現了地產中介關店潮，並從中小型中介蔓延到大型中介公司，顯示大陸樓市的寒冬正在到來。分析人士認為，目前出現的降價潮、關店潮意味著大陸樓市泡沫破滅已在眼前，而這些問題的根源，還是在於中國畸形的房地產政策。
樓市冷暖，中介先知。自從今年2月份“限購令”實施細則出臺之後，中介公司就受到巨大衝擊。
目前，深圳二手房的月成交量僅有2000套，與去年同期相比下降了8成。作為行業龍頭的中原地產，在深圳樓市業務大幅縮水的情況下，不得不做出關店的決定。
11月7號，中原地產華南區總經理李耀智接受《東方早報》採訪時透露，深圳中原地產今年將有60個門店暫停營業，這60間店每個月的虧損都達10幾萬元。
在中原地產之前，深圳當地就有多家大的地產中介紛紛關閉店面。
《財新網》報導，10月份，深圳世華地產關閉深圳寶安、龍崗、布吉、龍華等片區近100家店舖﹔中聯地產也將關閉 30到60家門店。9月份，港置地產也關閉了部分門店。
深圳的大規模關店潮，在2008年國際金融危機重創深圳房地產業時也出現過。這一次，不少地產中介從內心感到恐懼，預感這次的“關店潮”將比2008年還要嚴重。
北京的地產中介同樣也出現關店潮。北京某大型中介公司的負責人對《新京報》表示，今年前三季度，全行業基本處於虧損狀態。一開始有50家中小中介關店，緊接著，大中介也支撐不下去了。據他的保守估計，全行業今年將有3000家門店關閉，大約5萬名經紀人失業。
大陸自由撰稿人朱欣欣認為，由於中共政府在房地產業無度的資金投入，中介公司才隨之大量湧現，現在打壓樓市，出現關店潮也就不奇怪了。
大陸自由撰稿人朱欣欣：“從一開始中介公司也是依附在房地產商的基礎上的，這些年來說整個就不是很正常的。房地產業的發展，成為一個所謂的經濟支柱產業這個很不正常，房地產不是作為一種老百姓的居住需求，而成為一種投機的行業，它是一種畸形的泡沫式發展。所以說中介的倒閉從根本上來講，也是前幾年畸形發展的結果。”
中國出現的樓市降價潮、銷售量低迷、中介關門潮的現象，是否意味著中國樓市的拐點和崩盤已經到來了呢？
《中國事務》主編伍凡觀察，今年9月份，中國70個主要城市當中，有46個城市的房價停止上漲，有的開始下滑。而在1月份，出現這種狀況的城市只有10個，也就是說在8個月間增加了4倍。
《中國事務》主編伍凡：“中國房地產泡沫終於開始破裂，總算到了這一點，它的過程中間正在發生各種各樣的事情，尤其發生社會衝突，這個事情不會完，因為這個泡沫破裂，那麼龐大，有個過程，這過程會造成人們巨大的痛苦，引起社會和經濟劇烈的改變，這種改變讓人們接受不了的時候就會跟共產黨對抗。”
近日，美國約翰霍普金斯大學金融學與房地產學兼職教授陳劍接受了第一財經日報《財商》的專訪。他認為，中國房市的拐點已經到來，房地產泡沫開始破滅。
陳劍還指出，最可怕的是，當局對此毫無準備，應對無方，使得局部的危機將變成全局的危機。
新唐人記者陳漢、李靜、蕭宇採訪報導。
The Waning of China』s Real Estate Industry
Due to changes in legislation, the real estate market in Beijing
and Shenzhen has recently experienced a tidal wave of agency closures.
The trend began with small to mid-size agencies
then spread to larger realties, indicating that the 『winter』 of China』s real estate market is approaching.
Analysts say that the recent wave of price cuts and agency closures
implies that a real estate market bubble is about to burst.
Analysts say the root cause of these problems lies in China』s
warped real estate policies.
Those in the know were able to predict
the boom and bust cycle of China』s real estate market.
With the recent passage of legislation, limits are expected to
be placed on home purchases in past February,
As a result, China』s larger realties will experience a big hit.
In Shenzhen, the monthly turnover of existing homes
came in at only 2,000, down 80% on a year-on-year basis.
Centaline Group, a leading property agency, had to
shut down many of its branch offices due to the dramatic drop in business.
On November 7, Li Yaozhi, general manager of
the Centaline Group in the southeast district of China,
revealed to Shanghai-based Oriental Morning Post,
that 60 agencies will be temporarily closed this year,
with each realty losing over RMB 100,000 [US$15,755],
per month, in revenue.
Prior to the Centaline Group announcement, several local
large realties in Shenzhen had closed their doors.
According to Caixin.cn reports, in October,
Shenzhen Shihua Investment Consultant shut down nearly 100 local agencies.
Zhonglian Real Estate shut down 30-60 agencies.
HKP Property Agency also closed some agencies in September.
In 2008, the agency-closing tidal wave had already begun
in Shenzhen, when the global financial crisis first began.
Many real estate agencies are afraid that
the current agency-closing tidal wave will be worse than the previous one.
Beijing』s real estate agencies are facing the same fate.
A large real estate agency director told Beijing News that
in the first three quarters of this year, the entire industry has recorded a loss.
At first, 50 small agencies began shutting their doors,
followed by larger real estate companies.
He believes, conservatively speaking, that 3,000 agencies
in the industry are expected to close their doors this year, with some 50,000 brokers being laid off.
Free-lancer writer, Zhu Xinxin, explained that since
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
pumped in excessive capital into the real estate industry,
many large realties sprang up.
Now, with officials suppressing the real estate market,
it is not surprising that we』re seeing a lot of agency closures.
Zhu Xinxin, a free-lance writer: “At the beginning,
these contractors developed their business relay on those real estate companies.
Thus, over the years,
the entire industry has become warped.
Real estate development has become a pillar industry,
but an 『economy』 like this is abnormal.
Instead of trying to meet the public』s need for housing,
real estate has became a very speculative industry, warping into the next real estate bubble.
So in essence, the fact that intermediaries are closing down
is the result of abnormal developments during the previous years."
At present, China’s real estate market is experiencing
a tidal wave of price cuts, sales slumps, and intermediaries closures.
Does it mean that China』s real estate industry
has reached a turning point and is about to collapse?
According to Wu Fan, editor-in-chief of China Affairs,
this September, in 70 major cities across China,
46 cities real estate prices stopped rising
and in some cities, prices have already begun to fall.
In contrast, this January,
ten cities quadrupled the price of housing within eight months.
Wu Fan, editor-in-chief of China Affairs:
“China’s real estate bubble began to burst at last.
Arriving at this point, various things have begun to happen
and will continue to happen, especially social unrest.
Because when a bubble bursts, it is part of a larger process.
And this process will inevitably cause people great pain
along with severe social and economic changes.
When Chinese people can no longer accept such changes,
they will stand up and fight against the CCP.”
Recently, Chen Jian, an adjunct professor in finance and
real estate at Johns Hopkins University,
said to China’s First Financial Daily that
he believed the turning point of China’s housing market has arrived,
and the real estate bubble has begun to burst.
Chen Jian pointed out that the scariest thing is
that the CCP authorities are not prepared at all,
thus turning a small crisis into a huge crisis.
NTD reporters Chen Han, Li Jing and Xiao Yu