【新唐人2011年8月22日訊】「廈門遠華走私大案」主犯賴昌星上個月由加拿大被引渡回國，案情涉及眾多中共高層政要，案件將被秘密審理，當局已為賴指定辯護律師，並下令國內媒體不得擅自追蹤報導。海外專家分析，胡錦濤是否會引爆賴昌星案，要看十八大權位鬥爭團派能否壓倒江系人馬。

8月21號，香港《蘋果日報》援引來自北京的消息報導，賴昌星將被以「走私普通貨物罪」起訴，很快異地開審，而當局實質上視此案為敏感的政治案件。據了解，賴目前關在北京郊區秦城監獄。

原香港《文匯報》駐東北辦事處主任姜維平相信，賴昌星肯定不會被判死刑，最多是終身監禁，兩年後改為有期，再不斷減刑，預料最終囚禁8到10年。既便判他終身監禁，也會在獄中獲得特別優待，因為此案知名度太高，中共要拿它作樣板。

盛雪《遠華案黑幕》作者：「中國的整個司法領域應該說完全是一個黑洞，那麼這個案件的具體審理過程當中，有一些直接經手的官員如果繼續借用這個案子，在政治上打擊異己的話，這種情況就比較難以預測。」

《遠華案黑幕》一書作者盛雪認為，中共今天集體面對嚴峻的執政困境，她不太相信賴昌星案會帶動新一輪的政局動盪。

也有許多分析認為，中共權力鬥爭歷來腥風血雨，胡錦濤在任期結束前急於引渡賴昌星必有用意。

文昭時事評論員：「要把他引渡回國，實際上中共是作了一些原則性的讓步的，包括加拿大政府是可以探監、可以旁聽整個審理的過程。如果說胡錦濤把賴昌星引渡回去，沒有一些特殊的用途的話，顯然這些讓步似乎是成本太高了。因為他所作的這些讓步，按照以往的說法，恰恰是所謂『干涉中國內政』、『干涉中國的司法主權』的問題。」

賴昌星是在江澤民死訊傳出後被遣返回國。外界指出，如果江澤民的影響力還在，賴昌星不可能被成功遣返。

江澤民在「六四事件」中被鄧小平等大老看中，當上總書記。1992年初，鄧小平南巡，幾乎公開指責江澤民反對改革，並想撤換他。

最新一期香港《動向》雜誌披露，江澤民這時聽到消息，驚恐之餘立刻命賈慶林委託妻子林幼芳，向她馬來西亞娘家借3億元，打造鑲滿鑽石的金馬，送給左派大老陳雲祝壽。後來，陳雲明確反對鄧小平撤換江澤民。

北京當時流傳「民兒哥花三億買了個總書記」之說。而在香港出面訂購鑽石金馬的正是賴昌星，3億元欠款由賴昌星在福建大規模走私抵還，走私貨源一大部分來自林幼芳的林氏家族公司。

2000年1月，「遠華案」清查還沒有階段性結果，當時的福建省長習近平就發佈消息說：境外有媒體報導原福建省委書記賈慶林的夫人林幼芳涉案，「純屬無中生有！」

《動向》雜誌指出，江澤民認為習近平手腕圓滑，可以保護黨內不同派系，因而暗中用力使習近平在02年以後迅速上升，以致於在胡溫對陳良宇下手時，江澤民提的唯一條件是「讓習近平去上海」。

金鐘香港《開放》雜誌主編：「對於江澤民、賈慶林、羅幹這些有關的人、跟賴昌星有關係的，牽連這麼廣泛，都有利害關係，都有金錢來往的，我相信他也會交代，至少可以交代現在很多人們都不知道的問題，都會在中共的檔案裡面保存下來，當然必要的時候他可以利用這個檔案，來進行他們內部的鬥爭。」

美國哥倫比亞大學政治學博士李天笑表示，胡錦濤王牌在手，但引而不發，用以招安納降，發出安撫、穩住和分化江系的信號。這一招對於涉案的三個現任常委賈慶林、習近平、賀國強和原江的大秘書賈廷安，具有強大震懾作用。

旅居加拿大的姜維平指出，中共明年召開十八大，中南海高層派系鬥爭如火如荼，哪一派都不想因賴昌星案牽扯自身。他預料「賴昌星案」的處理必經中共最高層，結果也要依黨內權位角力而定。

新唐人記者梁欣、李元翰、蕭宇採訪報導。

Awaiting Lai』s Revelations

In July 2011, Lai Changxing, the prime culprit

in the “Yuan Hua Smuggling Case,”

was extradited to China by the Canadian authorities.

As this case involves many senior politicians

of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),

it will be a secret trial.

Chinese authorities have already assigned a defense lawyer

for him and ordered media not to report without permission.

Overseas experts believe that whether Hu Jingtao sets off

Lai』s case or not, depends entirely on whether Hu』s faction

could overwhelm Jiang Zemin』s in the 18th National

Congress of the Communist Party of China (NCCPC).

On August 21, Hong Kong』s Apple Daily cited news from

Beijing that Lai would be charged with “smuggling goods,”

and will appear in court soon.

The authorities now treat it as a sensitive political case.

It is said that Lai is currently in Qing Chen Prison

in the suburb of Beijing.

Jiang Weiping, ex-chairman of Wen Wei Po in Northeastern

China, believes that Lai should not be sentenced to death.

He expects the verdict to be a life sentence, and maybe two

years later it will be changed to fixed-term imprisonment.

The term might be reduced continuously.

The final term is expected to be eight to ten years.

Even if Lai gets a life sentence, he will be treated well

in prison. This is a famous case, and CCP will use it as a model.

Sheng Xue (author of Unveiling the Yuan Hua Case):

“The whole Chinese judicial realm is totally a black hole.

It』s hard to predict whether an official handling the case

will use it to crack down on political dissidents.”

Sheng Xue said that the whole CCP today

is facing a severe governance dilemma,

so she did not believe that Lai』s case would spur

a new round of political instability.

Many people believe that the power struggle

within the CCP is always bloody.

Lai』s extradition back to China must have some special

meaning, as it was conducted before the end of Hu』s term.

Wen Zhao (Current affairs commentator): “In order to have

him extradited, CCP must give in on some principle parts.

Such as allowing the Canadian government to visit him

and sit in during the whole trial.

The cost of extraditing him is too high for the CCP

to be no special meaning or message behind it.

These concessions should be called

“Interfering in China』s internal affairs”

and “Interfering in China』s judicial sovereignty,”

according to the CCP』s old statements.”

Lai was extradited after Jiang』s death. If Jiang still has

influence, Lai wouldn』t have been sent back successfully.

Deng Xiaoping liked Jiang』s actions in the Tiananmen Square

Massacre, and made him the CCP』s Secretary General.

At the beginning of 1992, when Deng visited southern China,

he almost accused Jiang in public of being against revolution

and wanted to replace Jiang.

Hong Kong』s Trend Magazine revealed that when Jiang

heard of this news, he was so scared

that he ordered Jia Qinglin to borrow RMB300 million

from Jia』s wife – Lin Youfang』s family in Malaysia.

He made a diamond-studded golden horse and gave it to

Chen Yun – a big influence among leftists, as a birthday gift.

Later on, and as a result, Chen did not agree to replace Jiang.

At that time, the saying that “Jiang bought the title

of Secretary General for 300 million yuan” spread in Beijing.

The one who ordered the golden horse in Hong Kong was Lai.

The RMB300 million loans were paid by Lai

from his vast smuggling business in Fujian province.

Most of the smuggled goods were from Jia』s wife』s

family enterprise.

In January 2000, before the Yuan Hua Case had any periodic

achievement, Xi Jingping, governor of Fujian province,

spread the message that it was purely fictitious

that Jia』s wife was involved in this case.

Trend Magazine pointed out that Jiang thought Xi

is tactful and can protect different factions inside the party.

Thus he helped promote Xi secretly in 2002.

When Hu was about to get rid of Chen Liangyu,

Jiang』s only requirement was to “move Xi to Shanghai.”

Jin Zhong (Chief editor, Open magazine): “Jiang Zemin, Jia

Qinglin, Luo Gan, etc, all those concerned, are related to Lai.

This case involves so many people.

They all have interest relationships, they all have money deals.

I believe Lai will confess, at least something that people

don』t know now. All will be recorded by CCP internally.

Of course, when it is necessary, it can be used

for their internal power struggle.”

Li Tianxiao, Ph.D. in Political Science at Columbia University

said Hu is keeping the trump card to make rivals surrender.

Hu can give an 『OK』 to appease, stabilize or

split Jiang』s faction.

A frightening method, especially to three current committees

Jia Qinglin, Xi Jingping, He Guoqiang,

and also to Jiang Zemin』s ex-secretary, Jia Ting』an.

Jiang Weiping pointed out that there would be 18th NCCPC

next year. Different factions in Zhongnanhai are now fighting.

No one wants to get involved in Lai』s case. Jiang Weiping

predicts that Lai』s case will be handled by CCP』s top people,

and the outcome will also be decided by the result

of CCP』s internal power struggle.

NTD reporters Liang Xin, Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yu