【新唐人2011年7月4日訊】7月1號中共90週年黨慶，中共現任和前任領導層傾巢出席，唯獨不見前總書記江澤民。香港媒體披露江澤民病危的消息，並指出他對十八大人事安排的影響力減弱。而胡錦濤「七一」講話，搬出承認「文革」和「左傾」錯誤的兩個《決議》，被解讀是對薄熙來「唱紅運動」和「毛派」首次表態否定。
近年來中共重大活動江澤民幾乎都高調出席，包括北京奧運、建政60週年閱兵等。但自從去年以來，江澤民再也沒有在國內媒體和官方活動露過面。
近日，香港中共傳媒《鳳凰網》援引來自中共高層的消息說，江澤民患上大病，來勢凶險，而且年事已高，身體健康每況愈下。
《蘋果日報》引述廣東知名作家北風的分析說，以江澤民的張顯個性，這次他缺席如此重要的90週年黨慶，只有兩種可能：「一是病重或掛了，二是沒戲了」。
近來，中共各派系角逐明年十八大的權力鬥爭又趨激烈，尤其是薄熙來發起的「唱紅運動」，從重慶推廣到全國。美國《華爾街日報》也說，薄熙來希望能利用這個運動來進入政治局常委。
原香港《文匯報》駐東北辦事處主任姜維平指出，薄熙來的「唱紅打黑」，目地和做法都是在效仿毛澤東搞文革，薄熙來甚至被「毛派」稱為「薄澤東」。
而在9名政治局常委中，除了團派胡錦濤、李克強與溫家寶，其他屬於江系的6名常委，外加歸屬團派的組織部長李源潮，都先後到重慶表態支持薄熙來。
姜維平：「這個表態應該講是在薄熙來的一系列舉動的脅迫下，他陰險之處就在這裡。他表面用這些東西逼迫你，你必須來向我這裡朝拜，因為你朝拜表面是朝拜毛澤東嘛，歸順毛澤東思想，歸順黨的凝聚力，不是歸順我薄熙來。但實際上是，原本政壇上邊緣化的薄熙來，現在又進入了全世界、全國人的關注目光的焦點當中。」
今年4、5月，溫家寶指出，「文革遺毒」和「封建殘餘」是阻礙政治改革的兩股勢力。被外界認為是針對薄熙來提出批評。
而多次呼籲政改的溫家寶，遭到保守派的重重圍攻。6月15號，溫家寶辦公室主任丘小雄被迫調離。不過，前國家新聞出版總署署長杜導正透露，胡錦濤並沒有對溫家寶改變態度。
6月26號，團派主將、廣東省委書記汪洋表示，「增強憂患意識」比只是「歌頌」更重要。公開向薄熙來唱反調。
胡錦濤在「七一」講話中，除了進一步闡述憂患意識攸關「黨的生死存亡」，還特別提到兩個《關於黨的若干歷史問題的決議》，他說，應對曾經犯過的「文革」和「左傾」錯誤「牢牢記取」教訓。
香港中共傳媒《鳳凰衛視》解讀說，胡錦濤「七一」重要講話，「實際上是在告訴大家，要解決現在的矛盾，不可能、不可以用文革的方式。」
7月1號，薄熙來在重慶的黨慶大會上辯解說，唱幾首紅歌，就有人說三道四，是不是回到「文革」啦？唱這些歌何罪之有？
《參與網》和《博訊網》刊載分析認為，胡錦濤搬出了兩個《決議》，暗示毛派「唱紅」不要搞過頭，復辟馬列毛左派是不允許的。胡錦濤再次強調「不折騰」，就是指不能推廣「重慶模式」。
美國普林斯頓中國學社執行主席陳奎德說，薄熙來也做了一件事情：
美國普林斯頓中國學社執行主席陳奎德：「就是說他把政治上的包括意識形態的鬥爭，政治上的鬥爭挑出來了，而且使得政治派別你不能躲閃，各自都要亮出自己的底牌，或者自己基本的顏色。所以說，這一下，中國的政治恐怕就不會像過去，像鄧小平後期說的不爭論這樣沉寂，這樣沒有生趣，恐怕是會有一段相當熱鬧的時期。」
海外分析指出，隨著江澤民的政治干預力急劇降低，江系、胡溫派系與太子黨的勢力將面臨分化重整，「毛派」、「左派」將逐漸式微。而在各種火山一樣的危機衝擊下，中共的出路只有和平轉型與解體。
新唐人記者李元翰、蕭宇綜合報導。
No Jiang on 90th CCP Anniversary
On July 1, the major 90th anniversary celebration
of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) founding,
current and former leaders of CCP were all present
except for former General Secretary Jiang Zemin.
Hong Kong media reports news of Jiang’s dying,
and that his personnel influence has declined
due to arrangements of the eighteenth congress.
Hu Jintao’s July 1st speech recognized
Cultural Revolution’ and leftist’ errors,
which is interpreted as a denial
of Bo’s “Red Song Movement” and the Maoists.
In recent years, Jiang Zemin attended all CCP』s
high-profile events including the Beijing Olympics
and the 60th anniversary parade of China’s regime.
Since last year however, Jiang had not attended
official activities or showed up in domestic media.
Recently, the Hong Kong “Phoenix" website cited
news from high CCP levels about Jiang suffering
from a serious illness and being in danger,
with the aged Jiang’s physical health deteriorated.
Apple Daily quoted a well-known writer, Beifeng,
that considering Jiang’s showing off personality,
his absence in the important 90th anniversary
celebration of CCP has only two possibilities:
“One, he is ill or dead, and two, the game is over".
Recently, the CCP factions competing for power
in 18th Congress next year got increasingly intense,
especially the Bo-initiated “Red Songs Movement",
spreading from Chongqing across the country.
US’ Wall Street Journal said, Bo Xilai is hoping
to use this campaign to enter
the Politburo’s Standing Committee.
The former Wen Wei Po’ Northeast Office Director
Jiang Weiping said Bo’s “Red Song Movement"
has similar purpose and methods
as Mao’s Cultural Revolution had.
Bo was called Maoist or even “Bo Zedong".
Of the nine Politburo Standing Committee members,
all except Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Wen Jiabao,
together with Li Yuanshuo, the Organizational
Bureau Director, went to Chongqing to support Bo.
Jiang Weiping told RFA, “This statement should be
under Bo’s pressure, Bo’s sinister place is there.
Superficially, you have to come to worship Bo,
because you worship Mao Zedong and his thoughts
as well as the cohesion of the party allegiance,
not to pledge loyalty to Bo.
Originally marginalized in the political arena,
now Bo became focus of Chinese and the world."
On May 2011, Premier Wen pointed out
“the legacy of the Cultural Revolution" and “feudal"
are two forces that hindered political reforms.
This was taken as criticism against Bo Xilai.
Wen repeatedly called for a political reform,
but was sieged by the conservatives heavily.
On June 15, the Director of Premier Wen’s Office,
Qiu Xiaoxiong was forced to transfer elsewhere.
However, former Director of Press and Publication,
Du Daozheng said, Hu did not change
his attitude towards Wen.
On June 26, Wang Yang, Guangdong Province’s
party secretary said, “enhancing grief awareness"
is more important than just “praise",
openly opposing Bo.
Hu’s July 1st anniversary speech further elaborated
on the sense of death, related to “party’s survival".
In particular, he referred to two resolutions
“on the CCP’s several historical issues".
He said that CCP should never forget the lessons
of the Cultural Revolution and the leftists’ mistakes.
Hong Kong’s Phoenix TV said that Hu Jintao’s speech
on July 1 “is saying that in order to resolve
current conflicts one could not and it is impossible
to use the methods of the Cultural Revolution."
On July 1, Bo argued on the party celebration
in Chongqing, that some people make
irresponsible remarks about his red songs campaign.
Is it back to the Cultural Revolution now?
What’s wrong with singing red songs?
Canyu and Boxun websites published analyses
about Hu’s referral to the two “resolutions",
implying that the Maoists “red songs movement"
should not go to extremes and not restore Marxism.
Hu once again stressed “not to turn side to side",
or not to promote the “Chongqing model."
Chen Kuide, Chairman of the Chinese Association
in Princeton, said Bo Xilai also did another thing.
Chen Kuide (Chairman, Princeton’s Chinese Society)
told RFA: “They brought out political ideology
conflicts into the open, and political factions
can not escape but show their cards or basic colors.
So it will not be like in China’s political past,
quiet, like during Deng’s time.
I am afraid now will be a very busy period."
Overseas political analysts have pointed out
that Jiang’s political power has reduced drastically.
Hu, Jiang and princlings’ forces will face changes.
Maoist and leftist will gradually decline.
In this volcanic crisis, the only way out for the CCP
is the peaceful transformation and disintegration.
NTD reporters Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yu