【新唐人2011年5月14日訊】大陸的海關總署最新資料顯示，4月份出口1556．9億美元，但進口增長疲軟。專家指出，由於補貼政策，中國出口強勁，本質上是中國國家補貼國外消費者，但這種發展孕育巨大危險。

中國海關5月10號公布資料顯示，4月份出口1556．9億美元創下新高，而貿易順差114.2億美元，遠超一季度的7.1億美元。不過，海關的資料與商務部長陳銘德的說法卻有出入。

就在本週的美中戰略與經濟對話上，陳德銘聲稱：“從貿易角度來看，西方對中國人民幣的擔憂和疑慮毫無根據，因為過去三年，中國貿易順差一直在減少。”

對於中國強勁的出口，經濟學家程曉農認為，中國產品的出口是靠中國（共）政府的退稅政策，結果是導致國內的價格反而比國外高。

經濟學家程曉農：「中國很多出口商品本身就是壓低價格出口的，出口的時候，出口企業沒有利潤，是賠本做買賣。那麼政府怎麼維持這些企業的生產呢？政府提供出口退稅，大概退稅率在平均百分之十左右，這個退稅率就是企業的利潤。」

程曉農指出：「中國的出口企業產品內銷，它就沒有出口退稅，所以價格要比國外的價格要高的多。也就是說中國（共）政府補貼了外國消費者，但允許國內消費者吃虧。但要是不給出口退稅，這些出口企業早就停止出口了。」

顯然這種出口並不能真正帶來經濟增長，人民財富也不會增加。

英國經濟預測機構環球透視（IHS Global Insight）首席經濟學家阿利斯泰爾•桑頓（Alistair Thornton），針對中國出口強勁、進口疲軟現況，推斷為「中國經濟減速」而不是國際需求強勁造成的，他認為，中國經濟再度出現疲弱。

大陸經濟學家吳敬璉，也提出了對中國經濟內部失衡的擔憂。

吳敬璉認為，在現行體制下，資本的所有者主要是國家、國企和富裕人群。在這種情況下，勞動者收人的份額很低，從上世紀80年代約佔國民收人總額的三分之二，到二十一世紀初已經降到50%左右。

而居民消費佔GDP的比重，也從上世紀90年代約佔45%(世界平均水準約為60% )，降到二〇〇七年的36%。吳敬璉表示，這使中國經濟增長缺乏內在動力，而“出口導向”也不是一種可以長期支持經濟穩定成長的政策。所以必須改變分配政策和經濟模式轉型，否則惡化不可避免。

而著名經濟學家羅比尼（Nouriel Roubini）對中國經濟更為悲觀。最近兩次去中國考察的羅比尼認為，中國經濟增長直到現在為止，都是由「大量出口」與超低的「人民幣匯率」推動的。這兩個因素導致中國人儲蓄持續增長，國內消費不足，而政府一再擴大投資規模。

羅比尼表示，08、09年，當中國出口大幅下跌時，中共仍然繼續擴大固定投資。現在固定投資佔國內生產總值的近50%。但是，一旦到了有一天，固定投資不可能繼續擴大時，經濟就會出現停擺。

新唐人記者宋風、肖顏綜合報導。

New Export Record: China Subsidizes Foreign Consumers?

China’s General Administration of Customs’ (Customs)

latest data showed China’s exports in April reached

$155.69 billion, while import data remained weak.

Experts point out that China’s strong exports are due to

its subsidy policy. In essence, China is subsidizing

foreign consumers,

which could cause future economic problems for China.

Customs’ data released on May 10, showed April’s

export of $155.69 billion hit a new high, with a

$11.42 billion trade surplus—far more than

the $7.1 billion trade surplus of the first quarter.

However, this data is different from what the

Minister of Commerce Chen Deming recently stated.

During the U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue,

Chen stated: “From a trade perspective,

the fears and doubts of the West,

regarding the Chinese yuan, is ungrounded.

In the past 3 years, China’s trade surplus has reduced.”

Economist Cheng Xiaonong thinks that

China’s strong export data is due to its tax rebate policy,

causing exported products to be more expensive

in China, than overseas.

Economist Cheng Xiaonong:

“The prices of many exported products were lowered

to the point that a lot of businesses didn’t earn a profit,

while others businesses even lost money.

How does the Chinese government continue to export?

They provide about 10% in tax rebates,

and that is the profit earned by these businesses."

Cheng Xiaonong pointed out:

There are no export tax rebates when the same

products are sold in China, so the prices of goods

in China are higher than the prices overseas.

Therefore the Chinese government is subsiding

foreign consumers. However, it requires that

domestic consumers pay higher prices for goods.

If there were no exort tax rebates, businesses

would have stopped exporting a long time ago.

Obviously, this kind of export policy cannot bring

true economic growth or wealth to the people.

http://finance.ifeng.com/news/special/zmzlyjjdh/20110510/4004622.shtml

Alistair Thornton, Chief Economist of U.K.’s economic

forecast organization, IHS Global Insight, thinks that

China’s strong export and weak import policy

shows that “China’s economy is slowing down,"

with less and less international demand.

He believes that China’s economy will weaken again.

Wu Jinglian, an economist from Dalian City, also

raised concerns about imbalances within the economy.

Wu Jinglian believes in the current system, the main

capital holders are the government, state-owned

enterprises, and wealthy people.

The share of workers income is very low,

decreased from 80% in the 1980s

to about 50%, around 2000.

The proportion of consumption over GDP decreased

from 45% in 1990s (the world average is about 60%)

to 36% in 2007. According to Wu Jinglian,

a decrease in consumption over GDP

will slow down China’s growth.

The “export-oriented" policy cannot support a

long-term economic stability and growth.

Therefore, China must change its distribution policy

and transform its economic pattern,

or else it is doomed to fail.

Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini holds a

more pessimistic view on the Chinese economy.

Recently Roubini made two visits to China.

He thinks that China’s economic growth, until now,

is driven by “large exports " and an ultra-low"

exchange rate."These two factors have led to

its continued capital growth,

lack of domestic consumption, and

repeated and expanded government investments.

Roubini stated that when China’s export decreased

sharply in 2008 and 2009, the Chinese government

continued to expand fixed investments. Currently,

fix investments account for nearly 50% of GDP.

However, when fixed investments cease to expand

,the economy will enevitably stall.

NTD reporters Song Feng and Xiao Yan