【新唐人2011年2月11日讯】埃及年轻人发起要求总统穆巴拉克下台的大示威，已经持续17天。突尼斯的革命结束了强人本阿里21年的独裁，埃及的抗议使统治了30年的穆巴拉克答应今年下台。那么，下一个变色的国家是谁？
曾经一度缓和的埃及局势又将爆发新一轮的大规模抗议。《美联社》报导，埃及巴士司机和公共运输部门的工人，10号也加入罢工行列，响应全国总罢工的诉求。稍早已有成千上万的国营事业雇员加入示威，要求埃及总统穆巴拉克下台。
在同时，埃及外交部长盖特(Ahmed Aboul Gheit)也发出警告，认为埃及可能发生政变。盖特在10号接受阿拉伯电视新闻网(Al-Arabiya)专访时表示，如果“冒进主义者”接管改革的进程，军方将被迫防卫宪法和国家安全。盖特的表态显示示威民众可能面临新一波的镇压。
从突尼斯的“茉莉花革命”，到埃及的持续抗议，约旦和叶门的大规模游行，我们看到一个波及整个中东地区的地震。那么下一个变色的国家是谁呢？
《法国国际广播电台》署名胡峻玲的《中东突变的分析》这篇文章，从每个国家的自由指数来评估分析。
由美国非政府组织“自由之家”公布的自由指数，是衡量一个国家的民主化程度，包括了政治自由和公民自由两个方面。自由指数的大小在1到7之间，1代表“最自由”，5.5到7的是“不民主国家”。
从《2011年世界自由报告》可以看到，发生大规模抗议游行的国家–埃及、叶门、约旦和阿尔及利亚的自由指数都是5.5，突尼斯的自由指数是6。它们全都属于“不民主国家”。而中国的自由指数是6.5，比这些国家的自由程度还要低。
天津维权人士张建中：“我想，像埃及、突尼斯当中的茉莉花，这种花香肯定会带到中国，而且中国的问题要比这些国家的问题要严重的多，他们的一些问题得不到解决，是由于这个极权制造成的。”
从这一次中东抗议浪潮看，指数为6和5.5的国家是最活跃的。除了突尼斯和埃及，抗议游行导致约旦组成新内阁，叶门总统表示不寻求连任，阿尔及利亚解除实行了19年的紧急状态。连伊拉克的总理也因害怕人们游行，出来表示不会寻求第三次连任。
张建中认为，中国人连最基本的人权都得不到保障，民众们会迅速觉醒，去争取自己的权力。
张建中：“每个人都会去想一想，谁给他们造成的？无家可归、流浪街头、住不起房、看不起病，这不是一个个案的问题，这是普遍现象问题，人民肯定会起来的，应当把这个花香带到中国，现在已经在影响着中国民众了。”
《德国之声》报导，中国贵州人权活跃人士陈西和糜崇标，在贵阳市散发北非局势传单，遭到当地警方的暴力殴打。
新唐人记者常春、李静、萧宇综合报导。
From Freedom Index to Predict the Next Country to “Change Color”
The demonstration of young Egyptians to request
President Mubarak to step down is on its 17th day now.
Tens of thousands of protesters gathered on the central
square again, vowing to continue the protest to the end.
Tunisian revolution ended strongman Ben Ali’s tyranny.
Egyptian protests caused Mubarak to step down this year.
Then, what country would be the next to “change color”?
The once eased Egyptian situation is soon to intensify
with a new round of large scale demonstrations coming.
Associated Press reported, Egyptian taxi drivers and
public transit workers answered the call for nationwide
strike by joining the protesters on Feb. 10.
Earlier, tens of thousands of state employees already
joined the protesters to oust President Mubarak.
Meanwhile, Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Gheit
warned that a military coup could take place.
Gheit said to Al-Arabiya in an exclusive interview,
if the “aggressive advocates” hijack the reform process,
military would have to protect the Constitution and
state security. Gheit’s statement indicated that Egyptian
demonstrators may face a new round of suppression.
From Tunisian “Jasmine Revolution”, to Egyptian protests,
to the large scale demonstrations in Jordan and Yemen,
we have seen a quake spanning over the entire middle East.
Then, which country would be the next to “change color”?
An article by Hu Junling published on Radio France
Internationale evaluated a country by Freedom Index.
The freedom index published by the U.S.-based NGO
“Freedom House” has been used to evaluate
the political freedom and citizen freedom of a country.
The index ranges from 1 to 7, with 1 for the freest,
while 5.5 to 7 denotes a undemocratic country.
World Freedom Report 2011 shows the countries
with large-scale protests like Egypt, Yemen, Jordan
and Algeria all have a freedom index of 5.5.
Tunisia’s is 6. None of them are democratic countries.
With a freedom index of 6.5, China has a even lower
level of freedom than the foregoing countries.
Zhang Jianzhong, a rights activist in Tianjin: “I think,
like in Egypt and Tunisia, the jasmine scent will
certainly flow into China, which has much more
severe problems than those countries.
Their problems are not resolved due to tyranny."
The wave of protests in the Middle East is most severe
among countries with an index of 5.5 or 6.
Besides Tunisia and Egypt, protests led to Jordan’s
forming a new cabinet, Yemen president’s promise
of no re-election, and Algeria’s end to its 19-year-old
state of emergency.
Iraqi Prime Minister also stated not to seek a third term
for fear that people will march out.
Zhang Jianzhong believes, since Chinese people
do not even have the most basic human rights,
the masses will awake rapidly to fight for their rights.
Homelessness, not being able to afford housing nor
seeing a doctor — this is a common problem to Chinese
people who will certainly wake up, bringing the scent
to China. The scent has already affected Chinese people."
Deutsche Welle reported, human rights activists
Chen Xi and Mi Zhongbiao in Guiyang City distributed
flyers about the situation in North Africa.
They were violently beaten by local police.
NTD reporters ChangChun and LiJing.
