【新唐人2015年01月12日訊】中共前黨魁江澤民長子江綿恆「卸任」中科院上海分院院長的消息，連日來引發外界持續關注。尤其對於江綿恆「卸任」的真實原因，以及習近平是否會對江澤民採取進一步措施，成為海內外媒體和觀察人士解讀爭議的焦點。

據中共官方媒體的報導，中國科學院上海分院在1月6號上午召開大會，宣佈江綿恆「年齡原因」不再擔任中科院上海分院院長。但外界普遍認為，江綿恆「因年齡卸任」的說法，明顯牽強。

江綿恆曾擔任中科院副院長，隨後又兼任中科院上海分院院長，屬於副部級官員。公開資料顯示江綿恆生於1951年4月，還有3個月才到64歲。相對於中科院其他分院在65歲甚至7、80歲退休的前院長而言，近64歲的江綿恆，退休年齡明顯被提前了。

對此，大陸軍史作家、中共將領蔡長元之子蔡小心在微博上說，江綿恆是「花落了了，東山了了！」

時事評論員邢天行：「我覺得從種種跡象來看，江綿恆這個『辭職』呢，當然是大家都知道了，所謂『辭職』只是一個表現形式，他不可能主動辭職，就是上面的決定他必須要接受，他不接受也不行，那麼這是一個非常重要的信號，就說明江澤民對他的袒護已經達不到作用了。」

那麼，在前政治局常委周永康、中共統戰部部長令計劃相繼落馬的敏感時刻，江綿恆被卸去中科院上海分院院長，意味著甚麼呢？外界的評論說法不一。

一種觀點認為，江綿恆被解職，也許就是江家「中靶」的開端。

中國問題專家、獨立評論員李善鑒：「很明確的，這應該是對江家幫動手的開始，至少可說是一個先兆。」

刑天行：「因為江綿恆本身以前被譽為『中國第一貪』，尤其在反腐的今天，其實很多人都在看著風向。將來是不是要動江澤民，江綿恆是非常關鍵的，因為他是江澤民的長子，如果說江綿恆他都能被拿下去的話，那麼江澤民的地位就岌岌可危。」

而另一種觀點則認為，習近平只是要削弱江澤民的影響力，只要江家能退出公共事務，就不會對江澤民動手。

但時事評論員刑天行指出，周永康、令計劃、徐才厚等中共高官在落馬之前，也有分析認為習近平不會觸及他們，只是剪除他們的「爪牙」，但事實是，他們一個都沒逃掉。同樣，作為他們背後靠山和主謀的江澤民，也不可能躲過清算。

刑天行：「習近平要給老百姓一個交代，就是這幾十年以來，中國的這個問題，包括這些腐敗分子問題促成的根本原因，他想給民眾一個交代，要去解決，要挽回民心，他不動江澤民等於他反腐敗白做了。」

此外，在2015年新年剛過，江澤民率一家三代到海南東山嶺遊玩，期間由海南省委書記羅保銘等官員陪同。大陸多家門戶網站在1月3號報導了這一消息，但僅僅一個小時之後，各大網站全部刪除了相關報導。

緊接著海南官場地震，1月4號，習近平就任命親信劉賜貴為海南省副省長，而江派色彩濃厚的原省長蔣定之卸任。這一變動又被外界解讀為是習近平對江澤民的公開「打臉」和警告。

採訪/陳漢 編輯/張天宇

Is Jiang Zemin The Next Target as Jiang Mianheng Resigns?

Jiang Mianheng is the eldest son of the former Chinese

Communist (CCP) Party leader Jiang Zemin.

He recently resigned his title as the president of the

Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai Branch (CAS).

The reason behind his resignation has

caused a great deal of speculation.

Media at home and abroad as well as observers suspect

Xi Jinping will take further steps about Jiang Zemin.

State media reported that CAS Shanghai Branch announced

Jiang Mianheng’s resignation because of his age.

However, the age excuse was not well accepted by outsiders.

Jiang, a vice-ministerial level official, was once vice president

of CAS and then the president of CAS Shanghai Branch.

Public information showed that Jiang, born in April 1951,

will be 64 years old in three months.

Since former deans retired at the age of 65,70 or 80, Jiang

is obviously taking an early retirement.

The Communist army history writer Cai Xiaoxin stated on

Weibo that Jiang is ‘the wilted flower, the defeated general’.

Commentator Xing Tianxin, “There are indications that

Jiang’s resignation does not reflect the true reason.

The resignation would not have been of his own volition.

It is the decision from above and he must obey.

This is a very important signal. Even Jiang Zemin’s

shield will not save him."

Since the downfall of former member of Politburo Standing

Committee Zhou Yongkang and former Minister of United

Front Work Department Ling Jihua, what does the removal

of Jiang’s post at CAS mean at this sensitive time?

There are various views.

One of the views is that his dismissal means

the beginning of the Jiangs being “targeted".

Independent commentator Li Shanjian “It is clear that this is

the beginning or a harbinger of the attack against the Jiangs."

Xing Tianxin, “Jiang Mianheng was formerly known as

China’s first greed.

In the current campaign of anti-graft, everyone is observing

the direction of the wind.

Whether or not Jiang Zemin will be hit,

Jiang Mianheng is the key person.

As the eldest son of Jiang Zemin, his downfall suggests that

Jiang Zemin’s status is very dangerous."

There is also the view that Xi Jinping only intends

to weaken the influence of Jiang Zemin and that

once the Jiangs are out of the public, Xi will not

target Jiang Zemin.

But Xing Tianxin indicates that prior to the downfall

of Zhou Yongkang, Ling Jihua, Xu Caihou and others,

there were also analysts believing that Xi Jinping will

not hit them but only remove their minions.

But the fact is that none of them were spared.

Likewise, as their patron and mastermind,

Jiang Zemin will not escape the liquidation.

Xing Tianxin, “Xi Jinping owes the people

a satisfactory explanation.

For decades, the root causes of the corruption ought to be

explained and resolved in order to regain peoples’ trust.

His anti-graft movement would be pointless

if he does not investigate on Jiang Zemin."

At the New Year, Jiang Zemin and his family, along with

Hainan Provincial Party Secretary Luo Baoming, visited

Dongshan Ridge in Hainan. Multiple websites reported

the news on Jan. 3.

But all relevant reports were removed

just an hour after the report.

Immediately on Jan. 4, Hainan officialdom experienced

a reaction.

Xi Jinping appointed his crony, Liu Cigui, as the interim

governor of Hainan Province.

Former governor, Jiang Dingzhi, also known to be closely

associated with Jiang faction, retired.

This personnel arrangement was viewed as a public slap

on the face and warning to Jiang Zemin.

Interview/ChenHan Edit/Zhang Tianyu