【新唐人2014年12月02日訊】近期，中共央行頻頻吹風，明年1月份正式對外公布存款保險制度。不過，這個在西方已經流行了80年的制度，在中國是否能行得通，受到專家質疑。有專家甚至認為，存款保險制度，可能給中國經濟引入更大風險。我們來看看這種說法是怎麼來的。

所謂存款保險制度，是指銀行作為投保人，按一定存款比例向保險機構繳納保險費，如果有銀行發生經營危機或面臨破產倒閉時，保險機構將提供財務救助，或直接向存款人支付部分或全部存款。

據大陸《新京報》報導，中共央行目前正在安排有關存款保險制度的實施工作，預計在明年1月份正式對外發佈，此前央行高層已經多次吹風。有央行人士透露，央行可能為98%的儲戶提供保險。專家分析，最大賠付額可能為50萬元人民幣。

銀行人士表示，一旦存款保險制度建立，儲戶需要把銀行當作一般企業來看待，經營得不好照樣關門﹔其次,儲戶需要把大額存款分開存放。

中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利：「辦了存款保險，銀行倒閉了，這個錢能不能老百姓真正拿到，我表示懷疑，老百姓存的錢已經都大於銀行裏面的錢了，那這個錢從哪裏來？國家要不要負擔？因為你是國家的銀行，國家資本。」

銀行存款保險制度最先起源於美國，1933年，美國成立了首家為銀行存款保險的政府機構，1934年新年開始，美國正式實施聯邦存款保險制度。目前全球已經有113個國家建立了存款保險制度。

中國1993年首次提出存款保險制度，但一度被長期擱置。2012年開始，央行重新數度吹風稱，中國推行存款保險制度的時機已經成熟。

《華爾街日報》評論說，央行這種明確表態，給長久以來一直暗中受到政府完全支持的銀行系統，引入了風險概念。專家和銀行界人士稱，儲戶可能會因此把存款轉向國有銀行，因為這些銀行規模龐大，不會倒閉。而國有銀行，主要將貸款投入被稱為「殭屍」的大型國有企業。

清華大學經濟學教授楊斌曾經告訴《新唐人》記者，中國經濟增長中的80%，來源於中小企業和民營企業。那麼，存款保險制度的實施，就意味著這些為中國經濟增長做大貢獻的企業，獲得的貸款將變得更加可憐。

中國社科院高級經濟學家張明接受《華爾街日報》採訪時說，存款保險制度，能提高存款投資者的信心，不過可能給經濟引入更大風險。

旅美經濟評論家馬傑森：「有一個可能性，供需是需要消費來刺激，大家都把錢都放銀行裡，會不會內需的刺激就有所不夠？」

鞏勝利：「保險本來就是個中間環節，它不起任何關鍵作用，而且這種模式對新經濟來講沒有甚麼特別的好處，它佔用了錢以後，等於是又有一個消耗資本能量的一個過程，你轉過來轉過去，怎麼不使它的成本更高？而且它的功能也好，它的作用也好都大打折扣。中間環節它有多大的漏洞啊，增加了漏洞的空間和機會。」

央行官員透露，所有大大小小的銀行，都必須支付一筆費用給央行基金，來支付保險計劃。

據了解，許多大型銀行一直遊說反對這個計劃，認為這筆費用不必要的，是對盈利的打擊，小銀行也因為儲戶可能轉移存款，而持否定態度。

那麼，為甚麼在國際社會已經存活了長達80年的存款保險制度，引入中國卻會備受質疑呢？

鞏勝利：「（國外）它是用一種市場經濟的方法來運作，它的風險就少了很多。像中國人治的這樣一個社會，關鍵它不是法治的，人治對一切規章制度，可能都是畫餅充飢，我要說的，這是很重要的一點。」

中共監管機構擔心，引入存款保險制度，讓銀行倒閉的可能成為真實，在短期內會導致銀行系統不穩定。而其他國家的經驗表明，在存款保險制度建立初期，緊張不安的儲戶，確實把資金轉移到規模最大的銀行。

採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/鍾元

Introducing Deposit Insurance Increases risk to China’s Economy

Recently, Central Bank of Chinese Communist Party (CCP),

constantly broadcast news officially announcing

the deposit insurance system for next January.

However, whether the deposit insurance system works

in China or not, is questioned by the experts,

although this system has been implemented

in the West for over 80 years.

Some experts even believe that the deposit insurance system

will probably bring greater risks to the Chinese economy.

Let’s take a look at the statement.

The so-called deposit insurance system refers to the bank,

as the insurance applicant pays the premium to the

insurance agency by percentage of the deposit.

If a crisis occurs with the bank or goes bankrupt, the insurance

agency will provide financial assistance, or pay part or all of the

deposit directly to the depositing customers.

According to mainlands “Beijing News", the CCP’s

Central Bank is currently working for the implementation

of the deposit insurance system,

and it is expected to officially release it next January

after the Central Bank executives have broadcast this

news numerous times.

Sources from Central Bank disclosed that the Central Bank

may provide insurance for 98 percent of the depositors.

Experts analyse that the maximum amount of payment

claimed, may only be half a million RMB.

Bankers say that once a deposit insurance system is established,

depositors need to look at a bank as a general business.

If the business operation is not good, then it will close:

secondly, a depositor will need to split a large deposit

to multiple banks separately.

Chinese financial think tank researcher Gong Shengli:

“Once the deposit insurance is bought and

the bank is bankrupt,

I doubt whether the claimed payment from

the insurance agency can really pay the ordinary person.

Because the total amount of money saved by the people in banks,

is greater than the assets owned by the bank,

where does this payment come from?

Shouldn’t the government take the burden?

These banks are state-owned banks,

and the state capital."

Bank deposit insurance system first originated

in the United States.

In 1933, the US government established the first bank deposit

insurance agency.

Since the first day in 1934, the United States formally

implemented the federal deposit insurance system.

At present, 113 countries across the world

have established the deposit insurance system.

China first proposed thissystem in 1993,

but it has been shelved for a long time.

In 2012, the Central Bank repeated several times that the time

for China to introduce a deposit insurance system is ripe.

“Wall Street Journal" commented that such a clear statement

from the Central Bank,

introduces the concept of risk to the banking system which has

long been secretly and fully supported by the government.

Experts and bankers said that depositors may transfer

the savings to the state-owned banks

because these banks have sheer size and will not collapse.

However, the state-owned banks primarily invest loans

in whats called “zombies"of large state-owned enterprises.

Economics Professor Yang Bin of Qinghua University once told

NTD reporters,

80 percent of economic growth in China comes from small-sized

and medium-sized and private enterprises.

So the implementation of the deposit insurance system,

means that these enterprises making dominant contributions

to China’s economic growth,

are more likely to obtain less and even smaller loans.

Mr Zhang Ming is a senior economist of Chinese Academy

of Social Sciences.

He said in an interview with Wall Street Journal, the deposit

insurance system is able to improve the investor confidence,

but could introduce greater risk to the economy.

US-based economic commentator Ma Jason:

“There is one possibility: the supply and demand system

needs consumption to stimulate.

If we all save our money in the bank,

will it be enough to stimulate the domestic demand?"

Gong Shengli: “Insurance has always been a middle link,

and it has no real crucial role.

Such a model has no special benefits to the new economy.

The insurance system takes up too much money

and once again consumes the capital energy.

You transfer the money here and there,

how do you not make it cost more?

This will greatly compromise its features and role.

The middle link has lots of loopholes, and it increases the

vulnerability of space and opportunity in the banking system."

The Central Bank officials disclosed that all large and small

banks must pay a fee to the Central Banking funds

for paying the insurance plans.

It is understood that many large banks have been lobbying

against the plan, and said that such costs

were unnecessary and also a blow to the profitability.

In addition, small banks hold a negative attitude to the plan

due to depositors taking deposits away from these

small banks to large banks.

So why is such a deposit insurance system surviving in an

international community for over 80 years, the likes of US?

It is strongly questioned for its introduction to China.

Gong Shengli: “(foreign) countries operate economy

in a way of market economy,

and hence the risk reduces a great deal.

But for a society governed by the rule of men in China,

the key is not the rule by law.

Under the rule of man, all rules and regulations may

be like pie in the sky. I have to say,

this is an important point."

CCP regulators worry that introducing a deposit insurance

system will make the bank failures a reality and lead to the

instability of the banking system in the short term.

But the experience of other countries, shows that at the early

stages of establishment of the deposit insurance system,

the nervous depositors indeed transfer funds to the larger banks.

Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/ZhongYuan