【新唐人2014年10月16日訊】香港「佔領中環」行動已持續兩個多星期。路透社引述3名接近中共高層的消息人士透露，北京擔心，香港的抗爭行動會在大陸引發骨牌效應。北京當局認為，過去已經對香港作出足夠多的讓步，因此決定對佔中「堅決不退讓」。如果出現大範圍混亂時，可能會動用中共軍隊。
香港當地時間10月15號凌晨3點，數百警察手持盾牌，在特首辦外的龍和道，驅散那裏的抗議者。雙方爆發激烈衝突。
而就在14號，路透社引述了3位接近中共領導層的消息人士透露，中共國家主席習近平在10月的第一個星期，主持了中共國家安全委員會會議，希望儘快結束佔中危機。
消息人士表示，北京當局認為已經「忍夠」了香港的抗議行動，普選是主權問題，不會作出第三次退讓。這些人士說，中共認為以往已經有過兩次就香港示威活動的退讓，包括2003年撤回《基本法》23條立法，以及2012年的反國民教育科示威。
「中國民主黨全委會美國委員會」主席張健：「中共所謂的前面兩次退讓，它其實是緩兵之計，來調和中央政府和香港市民、和香港政府之間這樣一個三角戀的關係。在這一次活動當中，民主運動發生之後，中共堅決要和香港愛好民主和平的市民死磕，這就暴露出中共殘暴的統治性。」
其中一位熟悉北京對香港政策的消息人士表示：再退一步，中共就會潰壩。而且可能產生骨牌效應，西藏、新疆和大陸其他地方，都會要求選舉權利。
美國紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明：「如果今天它在香港上讓步，那麼香港代表了這種普世價值，代表了公民社會，也代表了西方其他的影響。從某種程度上來說，香港可能會成為中國的憲政突破。那麼會帶來選舉上，如果抗爭，到獲得成就的話，可能會對內地產生很大的影響。」
報導說，北京方面評估，香港的抗議持續，只會是香港的損失，而非大陸。受苦的只是香港人民。
「中國民主黨全委會美國委員會」主席張健認為，這種說法，更證明了中共的不打自招。
張健：「香港就是中國的一部分，香港的損失就應該是中國的損失，香港的民主法制倒退就應該是中國的民主法制倒退。如果說一個地方產生了這一個極端問題的時候，中央政府卻用這種說，是你自己的損失，好像此事與我無關，完全都是你，你是咎由自取，那這個態度，中共就是在愚弄港人，愚弄全世界所有善良人民的眼睛和智慧。」
消息說，北京不會在香港血腥鎮壓抗議群眾，並且認為出動軍隊是最後的辦法，只會在混亂擴大，出現殺人、放火、搶劫時動用。
美國紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明觀察分析，如果中共當局不讓步，香港學生不會主動撤走，將來一定會爆發某種程度的街頭衝突。而如果中共在香港作出強烈的、帶有暴力性質的回應，那麼它維持統治的成本將會非常高，統治者權力的喪失速度也會越來越快。
夏明：「中國的維穩費用已經超過了軍費，也就是說中國政府面臨著一個高額的成本，再進行一場對人民的內戰。如果習近平現在繼續想追加這種鎮壓成本的話，第一，它有一個極限，第二，中國的經濟現在是在下滑，政府財政來源其實也在下滑。他的政策是沒辦法受到資源的支撐的。它反而會更多的刺激中國民間和國際社會的抵制、反抗。」
此外，一名消息人士還提到，中共對特首候選人的篩選這一底線不會改變。這名不願透露姓名的消息人士說：「香港並不是中央政府最關切的問題。最關切的是經濟。」
採訪/朱智善 編輯/王子琦 後製/陳建銘
Reuters: China Won’t Cede to HK Protests
Hong Kong’s Occupy Central demonstrations
have lasted for more than two weeks.
Three sources with ties to the Chinese leadership told Reuters
that Beijing is worried that the protests will lead to a domino
effect in mainland China and that enough concession
has been given to the protesters.
Beijing leaders decided the central government would
“firmly not give in" to the protesters.
The military may be sent in if there were widespread chaos.
At 3:00 a.m. Hong Kong local time on Oct. 15,
hundreds of police armed with shields dispersed the protesters
outside the Chief Executive’s Office on Lung Wo Road.
The two sides broke out in an intense clash.
Reuters reported on Oct. 14 that three sources close to the
Communist Party leadership told them that Xi Jinping held
a meeting of the new National Security Commission
in the first week of October and wanted to end the crisis quickly.
The sources say the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) feels
it has compromised enough with Hong Kong;
“Universal suffrage is a sovereign issue.
The central government will not give in a third time."
The sources say China has yielded to demands
by Hong Kong twice already.
Once in 2003, when 500,000 people protested
the controversial Article 23, or sedition bill,
forcing Beijing to back off from passing it.
The other time was a rally in 2012, when 120,000 people
protested forced Beijing end plans to implement
a pro-CCP national education scheme in Hong Kong schools.
Zhang Jian, U.S. Committee of The Democratic Party of China
chairman: “The past two concessions were in fact the CCP’s
tactic to smooth out the relationship between Beijing,
the Hong Kong people and the Hong Kong government.
But in this movement of pro-democracy, the regime is
determined to fight against the peace and democracy
of Hong Kong.
The brutal ruling of the CCP is fully exposed."
The Reuters report quoted one of the CCP inside sources
who said, “(We) move back one step and the dam will burst."
The report says the insider continued,
saying that “if Beijing yielded, it could have a domino effect
with Tibet, Xinjiang and other parts of the mainland
demanding the right to elections.。
Xia Ming, Political Science professor at City University
of New York: “Hong Kong represents a set of universal values,
a civil society, and an influence of the West.
To a certain degree, it could bring a constitutional breakthrough
for China if it makes any concession to Hong Kong.
This could have a huge impact on the mainland
if the protest is achieving a progress in the election."
One of the sources told Reuters, “If the protests continue,
it would be Hong Kong’s loss, not the mainland’s.
Hong Kong people would suffer."
Zhang Jian says this statement
is more of a confession by the CCP than anything.
Zhang Jian: “Hong Kong is part of China, the loss of it
should be China’s loss, and a regression of Hong Kong’s
democracy and legal system is the regression of China.
When the central government claims the loss is only local,
not national, the attitude is one of telling Hong Kong people
that they deserve the loss.
It is an insult, and the CCP is trying to fool Hong Kongers
and all the good people in the world."
The Reuters report says, “However, China has decided there
will not be a bloody crackdown in Hong Kong, and sending in
the People’s Liberation Army would only happen
if there were widespread chaos, the second source said."
Professor Xia Ming analyzes that if the CCP won’t budge,
and Hong Kong students won’t take the initiative to withdraw;
some degree of clashes in the streets are bound to erupt.
Xia says if the CCP responds with strong violence,
the cost to maintain its rule will be very high,
and its ruling power will be gone even faster.
Xia Ming: “China’s stability maintenance costs have exceeded
the military budget.
The CCP is already facing a high cost for a civil war against
the people.
If Xi Jinping is stepping up on the repression, first, there is a
max limit in the cost, and second, China’s economy is now
in decline, the governmental finance is in fact declining.
His policies will have no supporting resources and will instead
meet with more resistance and face a boycott by the domestic
and international society."
The second source in the Reuters report says:
“The central government’s bottom line will not change,"
“Hong Kong is not high on the list
of the central government’s priorities",
“The economy is the top priority."
Interview/Zhu Zhishan Edit/Wang Ziqi Post-Production/Chen Jianming