【新唐人2014年09月26日訊】中國大陸三大地區的武警總隊的「第一把手」近日同時換防，尤其是在官場才剛剛發生連震的上海地區。中國大陸的武警屬於現役軍人，由中共國務院和中央軍委雙重領導。在中共四中全會召開前夕，上海發生的這一系列緊鑼密鼓的行動，引起了各方輿論的關注。我們一起去看看下面的專家分析報導。

24號，武警上海總隊宣佈：武警上海總隊司令魏佑江提任武警部隊副參謀長，武警重慶總隊司令朱宏調任武警上海總隊司令。就在前一天，重慶、湖南的武警「一把手」也都同時換防。而朱宏以前也擔任過上海總隊參謀長，2013年3月調赴重慶，現在又回到上海。

旅美時事評論家橫河：「一個是必須了解上海，但是和『上海幫』又沒有這麼近關係的，這麼一個人去控制上海的武警，作為一種防範措施，這個可能性應該還是有的。武警跟地方勢力的關係要更密切一些，他的調動方面比軍隊要容易的多。武警介入國內政治鬥爭的機會，也比軍隊要高得多。」

23號，「上海市紀檢監察網」發佈了11名官員落馬的訊息，其中4人接受調查，7人已移送司法機關。大陸媒體報導，他們多因為涉及土地流轉和利益輸送問題被查處。上海維權律師鄭恩寵認為，這些官員基本上都是江澤民次子江綿康的「馬仔」。

時事評論員唐靖遠分析，中共四中全會前，在上海集中通報所謂反腐，官媒起底與江澤民家關係密切的王宗南，還有周永康案很可能進入司法程序的大背景下，把上海武警總隊的司令換人，最主要的原因，是要防止上海地方武警出亂子。

唐靖遠舉例說，因為2007年，當時的中共總書記胡錦濤為了調查上海社保基金案，派出百人專案組進駐上海，當時的上海市委書記陳良宇調動了2000武警，包圍了專案組，禁止人員進出，最後強制專案組返京。

時事評論員唐靖遠：「其實這種行為在當時中共高層震動就非常大，簡直已經是接近叛亂的一個舉動，所以這個也是最後胡溫下定決心要拿下陳良宇的最主要原因之一。所以這一次背後的用意其實都很明顯，涉及到江澤民的家族。」

海外雜誌《中國事務》的總編輯伍凡認為，北京在對江澤民派系步步緊逼的同時，出於擔心內斗中政權的穩定，所以嚴控軍隊、武警，尤其是上海——江澤民的「老巢」。

《中國事務》總編輯伍凡：「那就怕他們自己有一套系統，底下那幫子人就聽他的，他就有力量來對抗上面，那麼我現在把你一個人調走。這種方法在毛澤東時代就用過，七大軍區的（司令）互相平調，說明武警部隊不穩，上面害怕不聽命令，現在用這個辦法來削弱。」

下個月中共將召開四中全會，大陸時政觀察人士華頗估計，屆時高層會有人事上的大調整，所以首先需要嚴控上海地方武警。

大陸時政觀察人士華頗：「其實就是圍繞著人事安排，我估計在常委及政治委員，以及中央軍委，要有一個大的人事調整。雙方的爭鬥日趨白熱化，各派勢力已經是饑不可耐，所以讓武警部隊的最高領導互換，就是防患於未然，讓將不識兵，兵不識將，想造反也造不成。」

大陸媒體近日還廣泛轉載了起底原上海光明食品集團董事長王宗南的報導，稱他在政商界人脈深厚。王宗南因為挪用公款、受賄，已經在8月被批捕。文章披露，王宗南最重要的人脈正是原上海市委書記、江澤民的親信陳良宇。而江澤民曾是光明集團的前身——上海益民食品廠的第一副廠長。

採訪編輯/唐音 後製/李勇

Shanghai Armed Police Chief Replaced: A Precautionary Action?

Chiefs of Armed Police Corps in three regions

of Mainland China have been recently replaced in turn,

especially in Shanghai where continuous shock has rocked

the officialdom.

Armed police in Mainland belong to the active duty army,

under the dual leadership of the State Council

and the Central Military Commission

of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Before the CCP’s Fourth Plenary Session is held, this series

of intense action in Shanghai has concerned the public.

Let’s take a look at the expert analysis.

On Sept. 24, Shanghai Armed Police Corp. announced that

Shanghai Armed Police Commander Wei Youjiang

was promoted to the Deputy Chief of Staff

of the State Armed Police Force.

Chongqing Armed Police Corps commander Zhu Hong was

transferred to Commander of Shanghai Armed Police Corps.

Just one day ago, the chief commanders of Armed Police

Corps in Chongqing City and Hunan Province were also

simultaneously rotated.

Zhu Hong previously served as Chief of Staff

of the Shanghai Armed Police Corps.

In March 2013 he transferred to Chongqing

and has now returned Shanghai.

American political commentator Mr. Heng He: “There are

precautions with a person who must understand Shanghai,

but has no close relations with the ‘Shanghai Gang’,

who controls the Shanghai Armed Police.

Such a possibility should exist.

The armed police have a closer relationship with local forces.

To change their commander is easier than the formal army.

The opportunity for armed police to intervene in a domestic

political fight is also much higher than that of the army."

On Sept. 23, Shanghai Discipline and Inspection Supervision

Network released the news of 11 sacked officials, four

of whom are under investigation, and seven who have been

transferred to judicial departments.

Mainland media reported that they were mainly investigated

due to involvement in land transfer and interest siphoning.

Shanghai human rights lawyer Zheng Enchong believes

that these officials are basically the messengers

of Jiang Miankang, the second son of Jiang Zemin.

Political Commentators Tang Jingyuan analyzed that before

the CCP’s Fourth Plenary Session, the so-called

anti-corruption is focused on Shanghai, and official media

exposed Wang Zongnan, who is close to Jiang Zemin’s family.

The Zhou Yongkang case is likely

to transfer judicial proceedings.

Under a wide range of the above backgrounds,

the Commander of Shanghai Armed Police Corps

has been swapped, the main reason being to prevent

trouble and chaos among the Shanghai armed police.

Tang Jingyuan gave an example for this.

In 2007, when the CCP Head Hu Jintao dispatched hundreds

of investigators as a special group stationed in Shanghai

to investigate the Shanghai social security fund case,

then Shanghai CCP Head Chen Liangyu mobilized

2,000 armed police to encompass the special group,

prohibit access, and finally forced this special group

to retreat to Beijing.

Tang Jingyuan: “In fact, this behavior caused a very big shock

at high-levels of the CCP, and this is already a move

resembling an insurgency.

So this is the one key reason why Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao

were determined to crackdown on Chen Liangyu.

So this time the intention behind the action is actually

very obvious, it involves Jiang Zemin’s family."

Chief Editor of overseas magazine China Affairs Mr. Wu Fan

believes that when Beijing Authorities are pressing harder

and harder on the Jiang Zemin faction, due to fear

for regime stability during the internal fighting,

they strictly control the army and armed police,

especially in Shanghai where Jiang Zemin’s “lair" is based.

Mr. Wu Fan: “It is terrible that if they have their own system,

and their followers only listen to their orders,

this will empower them with strength

to fight the upper authorities.

So now a key person has been transferred away.

This method had been used in Mao Zedong’s era.

The commander of seven military regions

were swapped out with each other.

So this news indicates that the Armed Police Force

is instable, the high authorities fear the armed police

will not follow their orders, and now use this approach

to weaken them."

Next month the CCP Fourth Plenary Session will be held.

Mainland China political commentator Hua Po said that

during the conference there will be a major adjustment

of top level personnel, so they first need to place

strict control on Shanghai Armed Police.

Hua Po: “In fact, surrounding the personnel arrangements,

I guess there will be major personnel changes among

the Standing Committee of Politburo, members

of the Politburo and the Central Military Commission.

The battle between the two sides is now increasingly

heated.

Various factions’ forces are already ready

to take urgent action.

To swap the Armed Police Force’s top leadership is to take

preventive measures, so that the soldiers will not know

the commander and the commander will not know

the soldiers, which makes the rebels unable to succeed."

Mainland media recently widely reproduced the report

which reveals that Wang Zongnan, the former Chairman

of Executive Board of Shanghai Bright Food Group,

has a deep political and business connections.

Wang Zongnan was arrested in August

on embezzlement and bribery charges.

The article revealed that the most important contact

Wang Zongnan has is the former Shanghai CCP Head

Chen Liangyu, Jiang Zemin’s crony.

Jiang Zemin was the first Deputy Director of Shanghai Yimin

Food Factory, which was the predecessor

of Guangming Group.

Interview & Edit/Tangyin Post-Production/LiYong