【新唐人2014年05月09日訊】中國大陸在5.1長假期間，伴隨著各地政府的各種救市政策，各地開展了五花大門的房地產促銷活動，不過，成交價格和數量普遍慘淡，北京成交量同比大跌8成。外界認為，中國房地產崩盤已經開始。專家指出，作為中國經濟支柱的房地產，房地產崩盤會導致中國經濟節節敗退，後果會比當年的日本和美國更慘。
經歷了一季度樓市的冷清後，5.1長假成為各家房地產企業搶市的節點。開發商開始了營銷大戰，名車展示，外籍模特走秀、小丑表演，微信抽獎活動，應有盡有。
而在廣州，從4月開始，房地產開發商推出「首付分期」或者「零首付」的樓盤不斷增加，5.1長假期間，降價促銷﹔1萬抵5萬、手持5萬定金就可以簽約等促銷活動比比皆是。
同時，各地政府也開展了鬆綁限購，下調購買房入戶標準等方式救市。
不過，大陸「中原集團研究中心」監測的54個城市數據顯示，今年5.1假期新建住宅合計成交量，與去年同期相比大幅下滑47%，一線、二線、三、四線城市都明顯下挫，降幅分別為40%、65%、32%。
北京、上海、廣州、深圳四大一線城市成交量更是跌到冰點，北京等城市成交總量同比大跌近八成。
大陸財經評論家牛刀：「這個它在造勢，搞一點甚麼政策出來，試試看各方面反映，對於中國房地產那麼大盤量，那些政策有甚麼用呢，能夠糊弄一點人去，沒有用的，除非房子暴漲人家才會買，人家放那麼多錢到那兒有甚用。」
中共國家發改委「城市和小城鎮改革發展中心」，去年調查了12個省、區的156個地級市和161個縣級市，發現90%以上的地級市，正在規劃建設新城新區，規劃人口達到34億。也就是說這些規劃出來的新城區，能住下全世界人口的一半。
深、滬兩市126家房企公布的第1季度報告顯示，其中77家出現淨利潤按年下滑﹔126家房企歸屬母公司淨利潤，與去年同期相比下滑6.36%，同時，負債和存貨大幅增長，雙雙突破兩萬億元人民幣。
牛刀：「中國的房價是亂漲的，它並不是老百姓的購買力把它拖起來，完全是共產黨濫發鈔票把它拉起來的，不是一個正常的房價，房價降的越多，對老百姓越好，房租也會降低，房租降低對企業也有好處。」
清華經濟管理學院中共黨委書記楊斌：「中國的房價太高了，現在中國平均的商品房的房價已經超過美國別墅的房價。另外，中國是兩極分化，有錢人出去買房子，沒錢的人在國內都住不起。」
在中共特有的土地公有化制度裡，土地成了地方政府生錢的活水源。財政部「財政科學研究所」所長賈康認為，「不動產業」是國民經濟的一個支柱產業，政府當然要避免這個產業經受大起大落式的衝擊。賈康說，政府不會坐視不動產業大起大落。
牛刀：「你要賣地可以啊，但是你建的房子要有人買啊，根本護不住的，政府絕對護不住，它要護的辦法唯一就是印鈔，那是個甚麼感覺啊，中國甚麼價格都比其他任何國家高得多，印鈔就要通脹。」
賈康認為，中國樓市崩盤不能與美國和日本相比。他說，美國和日本，已經是從中等收入階段「畢業」了的發達國家，美國進行一些調整後，較快的擺脫了危機狀態，現在仍然是無可動搖的頭號強國。日本經歷20年的經濟停滯，老百姓的國民福利卻沒有滑坡，照樣過得比較滋潤。但中國經濟增速的可接受區間很狹窄，一旦滑出區間，局面會不可設想。
賈康表示，假設中國現階段就出現樓市崩潰，中國很可能會跌進中等收入陷阱，貧富分化加劇，直接影響民生，而且很可能使經濟問題政治化，進入亂局。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/舒燦
China Experiences Dismal Housing Market
During the May 1 extended holiday weekend,
numerous real estate promotional activities took place
along with a variety of local government bailout
policies to save the market.
However, the sales volume has been poor.
Beijing´s total transactions fell 80 percent year on year.
It is generally believed that China’s real estate bubble
has begun to burst.
Experts point out that real estate has been China’s
economic pillar.
The real estate collapse will result in a financial
crisis in China worse than what Japan
and the United States have experienced before.
After the poor real estate performance in the first
quarter, high hopes for the market were placed
on the May 1 holiday.
Developers engaged in a marketing war with
luxury car displays, runway models,
clown performances, and lottery tickets.
In Guangzhou, real estate developers launched
“down payment by installments"
or “zero down payment" in April.
During the May 1 holiday, there were even promotional
markdown activities such as “get 10,000 yuan´s worth
for 50,000 yuan,” or “50,000 yuan down payment
seal´s the deal.”
Local governments have relaxed restrictions
on home buyers´ standards.
Centaline Group´s May 1 survey data of 54 cities
showed the total transactions for new housings fell
47 percent year on year.
Total transactions for first, second, and third/fourth tier
cities declined significantly by 40 percent, 65 percent,
and 32 percent respectively.
The four first-tier cities— Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou
and Shenzhen— had next to no transactions,
a fall of nearly 80 percent.
Niu Dao, financial commentator: “The promotion
policies are to test the water.
But, none of the policies will work for the massive
Chinese real estate market.
Unless housing prices skyrocket, no one will buy.
There is no point to invest money in housing now."
The National Development and Reform Commission
conducted a survey of 156 cities in 12 provinces and
found more than 90 percent of those cities are planning
to construct new Metro Districts to harbor
3.4 billion people—half of the world’s population.
In the first quarter reports of 126 real estate companies
in Shanghai and Shenzhen, 77 had less net profit
year on year.
The total net profit of the 126 companies fell by 6.36
percent year on year.
The total liabilities and inventories have respectively
reached 2 trillion yuan.
Niu Dao: “China’s housing prices are a mess.
The high prices were not determined by the people’s
purchasing power, but rather by the CCP´s chaotic
money printing.
The real estate prices were not normal.
Housing prices ought to be reduced,
the more the merrier.
The rent should go down.
Lower rent is to the advantage of businesses, too."
Yang Bin, Chinese Communist Party Secretary
at the School of Economics and Management,
Tsinghua University: “China’s housing prices
are too high.
Even an average house would cost more
than a villa in the United States.
There is also polarization in the market.
The wealthy will invest in housing overseas,
and the poor can´t even afford a place to stay local."
The CCP´s public ownership of land has become
a source of income for the local government.
Jia Kang is the Director of Fiscal Science Research
Institute, Ministry of Finance.
He believes that the regime will not allow the ups
and downs of a state economic pillar such as real estate
to impact the state economy.
Niu Dao: “You can sell the land.
But someone has to buy the house that´s built
on the land. The government cannot hold it.
The only way to hold the economy is to print money.
What does that mean?
Everything in China will cost more than
in any other country.
Printing money means inflation."
Jia Kang commented that China´s property market crash
cannot be compared with those in the U.S. and Japan.
He said both the United States and Japan, which are
already developed countries, have graduated
from the 『middle income trap.』
Both countries have been able to adjust and recover
from the crisis.
However, China has a relatively narrow window
for economic growth.
Once the economy slides, the situation will
be unthinkable.
Jia Kang believes that should a property market crash
occur, China is likely to fall into the middle-income
trap—that is, an exacerbated wealth gap— which would
have a direct impact on the livelihood of the people,
and cause an even more politicized economy.
In other words, chaos will occur.
Interview & Edit/Liu Hui Post-Production/Shu Jie