【新唐人2014年04月30日訊】現在在中國，幾乎所有城市的新空置房隨處可見，購房者也寥寥無幾，但新樓盤還依然不斷的開工，房價也不斷的升高。為甚麼中國的房地產泡沫越吹越大，目前還能維持不破滅呢？日前，中共國務院官員揭露了這個秘密。請看以下報導。
日前，國務院發展研究中心原副主任侯雲春，在接受大陸《第一財經日報》的採訪時表示，中國經過這麼多年發展，房地產泡沫肯定存在，但房地產泡沫也不敢捅破，那樣對經濟帶來的震動更大。
侯雲春還認為，全世界新建的住宅，中國佔了一半，雖然的確存在有人買不起房的問題，但中國房地產的主要矛盾不是房子太少，而是空房太多。所以，房地產行業如果下行，最好是逐步消化。
侯雲春同時指出，經濟繁榮時，房地產一定是重要因素之一；反過來，一個國家出現經濟問題，特別是經濟危機，房地產泡沫都是元兇。
北京《國情內參》雜誌首席研究員鞏勝利：「地方政府的財政，比如像南京、杭州、武漢、廣州這些城市，地方財政的60%以上，都靠房地產的利潤生存甚至活下去。」
北京《國情內參》雜誌首席研究員鞏勝利對《新唐人》表示，如果房地產一捅破，很多中共地方政府就會破產。
鞏勝利：「像美國政府、歐洲的法制國家政府，它一般不超過4級政府，中國是7級。它7級還不說，它是雙重黨和政，兩個財政在分，都在吃財政的飯。所以中國政府的成本是目前來講，全球最高的。」
鞏勝利指出，鑒於這種情況，中共的分稅制規定，中央政府佔稅收的60%。這也是地方政府財政緊缺的另一原因。所以，作為搖錢樹的房地產，中共政府會盡量想辦法不讓它破滅，否則就會遭受最大的經濟危機。
根據國家發改委《城市和小城鎮改革發展中心課題組》去年的調查，在12個省區的156個地級市和161個縣級市，有90%以上的地級市，正在規劃建設新城新區。此外，12個省會城市一共規劃建設了55個新城新區。
但去年底，中國企業資本聯盟主席杜猛披露，中國有6800萬套空置房，樓市已經出現典型的「生產過剩」危機。
而且，很多城市的房地產資金鏈已經斷裂。
最近媒體披露，被稱為「中國曼哈頓」的天津濱海商務區，「開工項目已經爛尾30%，其他在建項目均已停工」。
今年2月，中共國務院副總理汪洋，在主持國務院部委主要負責人的會議上說，天津市已欠下五萬多億債務，實際上已經破產。天津子孫後代要承受這筆人為的債務。
美國中文雜誌《中國事務》總編輯伍凡：「一捅破它那金融完蛋了，那整個市場完蛋了，那中共政權就要岌岌可危了。所以他們現在處在非常矛盾的現狀、非常矛盾的狀態。可是這個矛盾不是別人造成的，是共產黨自己造成的。」
美國中文雜誌《中國事務》總編輯伍凡指出，中國已經有上百個「鬼城」，「睡城」，但中共還在蓋房子，房地產泡沫破滅不可逆轉。
最近杭州、秦皇島等城市房價不斷下跌，被外界認為是房產泡沫破滅的開始。
中國經濟學家謝國忠認為，中國房地產泡沫正在破滅，今年的房價會跌50%。
中國房地產最具影響力的評論家「牛刀」更指出，受錢荒影響，中國房價泡沫這次一定會破滅，必然是「拉美式」加「日本式」這兩種模式的疊加，中國房價最少要跌去80%。
美國《華爾街日報》最近則披露，現在一些聰明的投資者開始拋售中國的房地產。
《華爾街日報》報導說，自去年9月份以來，被外界視為「超人」的亞洲首富李嘉誠，賣出了位於上海和廣州的寫字樓和商場項目，他的次子李澤楷在今年4月，也出售了位於北京三里屯的一處綜合物業。
採訪/易如 編輯/宋風 後製/李智遠
Why None Dare to Pop the Property Bubble
Although China has massive empty housing stocks
in almost all its cities, few people are buying.
However, new residential buildings are still constantly
being built, and housing prices continue to increase.
Why has the housing bubble grown bigger and bigger
but still hasn’t burst?
A Chinese state council official recently revealed the secret.
In an interview with China Business News, Hou Yunchun,
Vice President of the State Council Development
Research Center said that China has been through so many
years of development, so a housing bubble certainly exists.
But Hou says it’s a bubble that cannot be allowed to burst,
otherwise, it would really shake the economy.
Hou says that China makes up for 50% of the world’s
new residential buildings.
Although some people indeed cannot afford the homes,
the main housing problem in China is not lack of property.
It is because of too many empty homes.
Thus, the best way to reduce real estate industry
is to do it gradually.
Hou says that when the economy was flourishing,
housing is one of the important factors;
on the other hand, when a nation’s hits economy problems,
especially economic crisis, the housing bubble is the major cause.
Gong Shengli, China affairs expert: “Housing interests make up
60% of the local governmental revenue in cities like Nanjing,
Hangzhou, Wuhan and Guangzhou."
Gong Shengli told NTD Television that if the housing bubble
is broken, many local governments will bankrupt.
Gong Shengli: “Government in the U.S. or European countries
has no more than four levels of administration,
but China has seven levels.
Besides the seven levels, the interests are again split between
the party and the government.
So the cost of keeping government in China
is the highest in the world."
Gong Shengli says that in this regards, the tax policy indicates
that the central government obtains 60% of tax revenue, and
it’s one reason why local government finances are insufficient.
Thus, with real estate industry being the money tree,
the central regime will try its best not let the bubble burst.
Otherwise, it would face the biggest economic crisis.
According to a survey by the National Development
and Reform Commission, 90% of 156 Chinese prefecture-level
cities are planning to build new residential districts.
In addition, 55 new districts were planned in 12 provinces.
At end of 2013, Du Meng, Chairman of China Enterprise
Capital Alliance revealed that
there were 68 million empty houses in China.
The residential buildings are overproduced.
Moreover, the capital chain of real estate in many cities
have been broken.
Recently media have reported that 30% of the projects in the
Tianjin Binhai Business District, known as “China Manhattan",
have failed to materialize, other construction projects
have been shutdown.
In February, Vice Premier Wang Yang said that Tianjin has
more than 5 trillion in debt, and in reality, it has gone bankrupt.
The future generations in Tianjin
will have to take on these man-made debts.
Wu Fan, US-based chief editor of China Affairs magazine:
“Once the bubble is broken, the finances will be done.
The entire market will collapse, the CCP will reach it’s end.
Thus they are in very conflicted situation.
Nevertheless, this conflict was caused by none other than
the CCP."
Wu Fan says there are hundreds of ghost towns in China, yet
the CCP still builds new houses; the bubble’s burst is inevitable.
Recently, housing prices have continuously dropped in
Hangzhou, Qinhuangdao and other cities.
Some observers say it’s a sign the bubble has begun to burst.
Chinese economist Xie Zhonghuo says that when China’s
housing bubble bursts, housing prices will drop 50% this year.
Chinese real estate commentator Niu Dao says that impacted
by the money shortage, the housing bubble will burst this time.
Niu says it will be like the Latin American and Japanese-style
collapse, and China’s home price will fall at least by 80%.
The Wall Street Journal reported that some wise investors
have begun to sell properties in China.
The report says that since September 2013, Asia’s richest man
Li Ka-shing sold his Shanghai office building
and shopping mall projects.
In April, his second son Richard Li sold the
Pacific Century Place building in Beijing’s Sanlitun area.
Interview/Yi Ru Edit/Song Feng Post-Production/Li Zhiyuan