【新唐人2014年02月21日訊】湖北武漢市在基礎設施上的支出，相當於英國全國更新和改善基礎結構的支出，不過武漢的債務也位居全中國第一。有評論指出，中共為了逃避全球金融危機，大肆投資刺激經濟，造成中國的債務佔國內生產總值GDP的比重，從2008年的大約125%增加到目前的200%。同時，強拆、貪腐、通貨膨脹應運而生，正在造成整個中國社會災難性崩潰。
「英國廣播公司《BBC》」經濟事務編輯羅伯特•派斯頓日前採訪了武漢市長唐良智後，以《中國是否再次震撼世界》為題，論述了在全球經濟蕭條時，中共採取政府投資，國有銀行敞開錢包，大搞基礎建設的做法，使中共迎來的經濟繁榮期，震撼了世界，不過這種投資，即將帶來的社會全面崩潰，同樣會震驚世界。
唐良智在接受採訪時說，武漢5年內的建設計劃，將花費2000億英鎊(約合人民幣2萬億元)。《 BBC》指出，單單武漢一座城市在基礎設施上的支出，就與英國全國更新和改善基礎結構的支出相同。
報導說，武漢的這種投資是有毒投資。也許武漢比中國任何其他城市，更能講述中國非凡的30年現代化和財富積纍、和所謂經濟奇蹟如何接近尾聲的故事，以及它為甚麼面臨一個災難性崩潰的嚴重危險。
截至2012年6月，武漢債務餘額達2037億500萬元，政府兩年內每天需要償債1億元。
旅美經濟評論專家傑森.馬：「中共絕不會讓地方政府破產，它採取的辦法就是印鈔票，你欠1000塊錢，印到一定程度，還500塊就把這個帳還了，但這種通脹的方式，往往老百姓感覺不到，他更覺得是農貿市場的菜農在漲價，他意識不到是中央大量印鈔搞出來的物價上漲。」
羅伯特•派斯頓論述，在過去的幾年中，中國除每隔五天建成一座新的摩天大樓，還修建了30多個機場、25個城市的地鐵、三座世界上最長的橋樑、超過6000英里的高速鐵路線、和26000英里的高速公路，以及商用建築和私人住宅的開發，達到了一個令人難以置信的規模。
他說，當一個大的經濟體以這樣快的速度進行投資，以催生財富與就業時，其中很大一部分投資將永遠無法產生經濟回報，從而成片成片的新建居民樓無人居住，整個城市裡的燈從來沒有亮起來，閃閃發光的高速公路幾乎看不到車輛。
而中國的債務佔國內生產總值的比例迅速上升，佔GDP的比重，從2008年的大約125%增加到目前的200%。
最近大陸各種債務違約不斷傳出。據《財新網》20號最新消息，2014年至2016年，中國地方政府債務將進入償債高峰期，地方債務違約風險正在加大。
北京天則經濟研究所副所長馮興元：「信託債務的違約在很多地方會繼續發生，今年可能會更多一點，地方政府要還債的話，可能先對工程隊拖欠，（借）新的債還舊的債，比較普遍，那個貸款很可能是不良貸款，還有財政部代地方政府發行的債，叫地方債，地方政府債務壓力太大的話，除了加強收稅之外，還有就是三亂，亂攤派，亂集資，亂收費。」
羅伯特•派斯頓說，對於整體經濟而言，由債務推動的投資或消費帶動的經濟，會出現兩種結果。如果貸款繼續增長，崩潰成為不可避免的。
而法國「興業銀行」經濟師帕特里克．萊格蘭德指出，2014年中國的經濟同期增長率可能會下降到2%。
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利：「中國的GDP增長如果低於3%，那這個國家就很危險了，中國人們基本必需品的能源成本高，成本高就造成3%的GDP成長都消耗到成本裡面去了。」
大陸《財訊網》在引述《BBC》的報導時，評論說，如此大規模的基礎設施支出，必然會導致大面積的拆遷和重建，一部分百姓和官員將因此發家致富，而這一暴富隱藏的社會危害和政治危機，正在動搖著社會穩定的根基。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/鍾元
Two Trillion Yuan Investment In Wuhan City – Toxic Black Hole
Infrastructural investment in Wuhan City, Hubei Province
is equivalent to the entire UK’s budget for infrastructure
improvements.
Wuhan’s ticking time bomb, debt level is also the worst in China.
Commentators point out that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
have made this huge investment to stimulate the economy in order
to avoid the global financial crisis.
This had caused its debt to gross domestic product (GDP)
ratio surpassing by 200 times..
Meanwhile issues of demolitions, forced relocation,
corruption and inflation are emerging, leading to catastrophic
consequences for the entire Chinese society.
The BBC’s economic affairs editor Robert Peston recently
interviewed Wuhan City mayor Tang Liangzhi.
He wrote the article titled Will China Shock the World Again,
discussing the CCP government carrying out infrastructural
construction to generate an economic boom during the global
recession by investment via state-owned banks.
But the collapse of society could also be the result of
such investments and it would also shock the world.
Tang Liangshi said during the interview that Wuhan’s
construction planning for the next five years will cost about
2 trillion yuan.
The BBC pointed out that the spending of the city is the same as
the UK’s national spending on improving infrastructure.
The report stated that this kind of investment is toxic."But perhaps
more than any other Chinese city,
it tells the story of how China’s remarkable three decades of
modernisation and enrichment, its economic miracle, is apparently
drawing to a close,
and why there is a serious risk of a calamitous crash."
Up until June 2012, Wuhan’s debt reached 2.037 trillion yuan.
The government needs to pay back 100 million yuan every day
for two years.
Economic commentator who lives in U.S. Jason Ma:
“The CCP will never let local governments go bankrupt.
It resorts to printing money until 1000 yuan’s debt is paid
off with 500 yuan.
People can hardly feel this inflation. They see groceries prices
going up, not knowing the cause is the central government
printing money."
Robert Peston stated in his article:
“Over the past few years, China has built a new skyscraper
every five days,
more than 30 airports, metros in 25 cities, the three longest
bridges in the world,
more than 6,000 miles of high speed railway lines,
26,000 miles of motorway, and both commercial and
residential property developments on a mind-boggling scale."
He wrote that, when a big economy is investing at that pace
to generate wealth and jobs…
it is a racing certainty that much of it will never
generate an economic return…
That is why in China, there are vast residential developments
and even a whole city where the lights are never on
and why there are gleaming motorways barely tickled by traffic.
And China’s debt to GDP increased rapidly,from about
125% in 2008 to the current 200%.
Recently all kinds of debt default cases happened. According
to the caixin.com on February 20, 2014,
from 2014 to 2016 China’s local government debt will enter
the peak of the debt payback. Local debt default risk is increasing.
Deputy director of the Beijing Zetian Institute of Economics
Feng Xingyuan:
“Trust debt default will continue to deteriorate in many places,
this year.
Local governments may delay projects to repay debts, divert
money from new debt to pay old debts.
Their loans are likely to be non-performing loans, such as
local debt – treasury bonds issued by local governments.
Local government facing too much pressure would arbitrarily
collect fees, raise funds in addition to increasing tax collections."
Robert Peston said, that,for the economy as a whole, when
growth is generated over a longish period by debt-fuelled
investment or spending, there can be one of two outcomes…
But if lending continues at breakneck pace, then a crash becomes
inevitable.
The French bank Societe Generale economist Patrick Legrand
pointed out that China’s economic growth in 2014 could fall to 2%.
Chinese financial think tank researcher Gong Shengli:
“If China’s GDP growth is below 3%, this country would be in
great danger.
Chinese people’s basic necessities, and energy costs are high.
The three percent GDP growth is consumed there."
China’s caixun.com quoted the BBC’s report and commented,
such a massive infrastructural spending will inevitably lead to
a large area of demolition and reconstruction.
Some people and officials will therefore get rich.
The hidden social harm and political crises are
shaking the foundations of social stability.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/ZhongYuan