【新唐人2014年02月13日訊】跨入2014年後，中國人關注的不再是房價的升和降問題，而是鎖定在 「房地產泡沫是否會破裂」的問題上。不久前，中共住建部副部長在演講中說，「中國離房地產崩潰時間還有一些日子，此時要是能想明白，採用微調的方法還可以調節。」而普通民眾都想知道，中國房地產泡沫會在2014年破裂嗎？
《上海證券報》對住建部副部長所說的「可以通過微調的方式調節房地產崩潰問題」並不認可，並指出，「靠微調只能將房地產崩潰的時期延後，無法真正阻止房地產崩潰的結局」，因為中國錯失了2009年初對房地產調控的最佳契機。
中共國務院發展研究中心主任李偉，在去年底的「世界工商協會論壇」上也透露，中國大陸的三、四線城市的房地產泡沫開始破裂，像溫州、鄂爾多斯等地的房價已經開始下跌。李偉承認，房地產已成為中國經濟增長的最不可預測因素。
香港「中原地產代理有限公司」（Centaline Property Agency Limited）的報告顯示，今年1月，「中原地產」所監測的大陸25個三線城市，新建住宅的成交量，創下了6個月來的新低，14個四線城市，新建住宅成交，也是11個月新低。
2014年第一週的三亞樓市，開局就遇「冷」，出現量價齊跌：商品房簽約環比下跌24.82%﹔簽約面積環比下跌39.87%﹔簽約住宅均價下跌12.80%。
大陸地產策劃人「牛刀」指出，中國房地產的主要問題，是整個指導思想完全混亂，它把中國老百姓當作「榨油機」，消耗了所有人的錢財，造成內需的嚴重萎縮。
牛刀表示，目前，香港首富李嘉誠從房地產跑了，很多熱錢也都從房地產撤走，而中國把房地產當作金融產品來經營，非常依賴於資金的流向。資金一流入，房價暴漲，資金一流出，房價大跌。
《央視》財經評論員、財經專欄作家牛刀：「就是今年、明年這一兩年，可能是出乎所有人的意料之外，突然暴跌，它就像日本當年那樣的一個泡沫式的破滅。它沒有別的出路。」
美國金融雜誌《機構投資者》，選出的2000-2006年「亞洲最佳經濟學家」謝國忠博士他也認為，中國房地產泡沫正在破滅，2014年房價將跌50%。
「牛刀」還撰文指出，當年，日本房地產泡沫破滅是屬於終極泡沫，破滅後20年都起不來。日本破滅前的徵兆：一個是日元停止了升值，這和現在人民幣的狀態十分相似﹔一個是泡沫進鄉村，就如同中國現在的農民工，他們賺的一點辛苦錢都被泡沫絞殺一樣﹔還有資金出逃等。
但「牛刀」說，中國還有兩點和日本的「終極泡沫破滅」不同：一點是，中國本次泡沫是由於央行發鈔﹔第二點是，中國泡沫是極為典型的官商勾結掠奪全民的財富。「牛刀」認為，中國泡沫破滅後果更為嚴重，人民的生活將成為大問題。
美國「南卡羅來納大學」經濟學教授，中國問題專家謝田表示，中國房地產的泡沫是由國家機器參與、主導並製造的，通過20年的系統性積纍，成了人類歷史上最大的一次泡沫。當泡沫破滅時，中國地方債務問題、銀行的問題、影子銀行問題、三角債問題和人民幣匯率問題，全部都會迸發出來。
美國南卡羅來納大學經濟學教授謝田：「他這個泡沫破滅的話，可能對中國的經濟產生最大的打擊，也同時會伴隨著人類最後一個最大的專制政權的垮臺。這可能是人類歷史上非常驚心動魄的事件。」
「牛刀」認為，中國的金融業就像一座即將雪崩的雪山。人們平時看不見，是因為這些年來，中共當局一直憑藉權利掩蓋一切矛盾，出了問題是政府出面兜底。「牛」刀指出，這些危機都將在2014年開始爆發，而「雪崩開始，有誰能敵」？
採訪/常春 編輯/宋風 後製/孫寧
Is China’s Financial “Avalanche" About to Tumble
In 2014, the Chinese people are not concerned about whether
house prices rise or fall, but about the property bubble bursting.
Recently, the CCP deputy Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural
Development said:
“It might be adjusted by fine tuning since we still have some time
before the Chinese real estate collapse."
However, people all want to know if the property bubble
will burst in 2014.
Shanghai Securities News, didn’t agree with the Deputy
Minister saying:
“fine-tuning can adjust the real estate market crash"
and pointed out that “fine-tuning can only delay the crash
not really prevent it", because China missed the best
opportunity in early 2009 for the real estate regulation.
Director of the State Council’s Development Research Centre Li
Wei also revealed at “World Industrial and Commercial
Organizations Forum" that: the real estate bubble began
to burst at third and fourth tier cities since housing price
started to decline at Wen Zhou, Ordos, etc.
Li Wei admitted that real estate has become the most unpredictable
factor in China’s Economic Growth.
The report of Hong Kong, Centaline Property Agency Ltd
shows that: in January, new housing turnover hit the lowest
point in six months in 25 third-tier cities monitored
by “Centaline";
the new residential transactions also hit the lowest
point of 11 months in the 14 four-tier cities.
Sanya property market has had a cold start with volume and price
decline for the first week of 2014.
Commercial housing contracts declined 24.82%; contracted
area fell 39.87%; average price of contracted residential fell 12.80%.
Continental Real Estate planner “Chopper" pointed out that the
main problem of China’s real estate is the completely confused
guiding ideology.
It regards the Chinese people as an oil mill to consume all the
money, resulting in a severe atrophy of domestic demand.
“Chopper" said that Hong Kong’s richest man Li Ka-shing left
the real estatebusiness;
a lot of hot money has also been withdrawn from real estate.
However, China relies on the flow of funds pretty much and runs
real estate as a financial product:
An inflow of funds may boost the housing price and an outflow
of capital may reduce prices.
“CCTV" financial commentator, financial columnist “Chopper":
“it should be this year or next that housing prices suddenly
crash taking everyone by surprise.
It’s like Japan’s bubble bursting without any other alternative. “
The 2000-2006 best Asian economist Dr. Xie Guozhong; voted
by U.S. financial magazine “Institutional Investor",
also believes that China’s real estate bubble is bursting;
prices will fall by 50% in 2014.
“Chopper" writing in an article said the Japanese real estate bubble
bursting was the ultimate bubble and is still in the doldrums
20 years after bursting.
The signals before the Japanese burst: one was the Japanese Yen stopped
rising which is very similar to the current RMB;
another was the bubble into the country, like the current Chinese of
migrant workers, and their hard earned money slashed;
the other was the flight of capital.
But “Chopper" also said that there are two differences in
the “ultimate bubble" between China and Japan:
one is that the Chinese bubble is due to China central bank issuing
money; the other is that the Chinese bubble is typically plunder of the
national wealth by Business-Government Collusion.
“Chopper" believes that the serious consequence of the China
bubble bursting is that people’s lives will plunge into crisis.
Economics Professor of the University of South Carolina,
China expert ,Xie Tian said:
“the China real estate bubble is the biggest bubble in human
history, perpetrated and manufactured by the State machinery,
and systematically accumulated over 20 years..
When the bubble bursts, the Chinese local debt problems, bank
problems, shadow banking problems, triangular debts and the
RMB exchange rate issue will all burst out."
Economics Professor of University of South Carolina, Xie Tian:
“the bursting bubble is the greatest blow to the Chinese economy,
accompanied by the fall of the last, biggest, human authoritarian
regime. This will be a huge breathtaking event in human history. “
“Chopper" believes that China’s finances is like an avalanche
coming down the snow mountain.
It’s invisible these years because the Chinese authorities try
to cover up all contradictions of Government using their powers.
“Chopper" pointed out that these crises will begin to erupt in 2014.
When the avalanche begins, who can stand against it?
Interview/ChangChun Edit/SongFeng Post-Production/SunNing