【新唐人2014年01月23日訊】海外媒體日前報導了中國嚴重的債務問題。在經濟發展中，像大陸這麽高的負債率是必然的嗎？這些債務怎麽產生的？如何償還掉？對老百姓和北京當局都有甚麽影響？為甚麽經濟學家們把大印鈔票稱之為「危險的掠奪」？讓我們聽聽專家們的分析。

法國媒體《解放報》日前在經濟版發表長篇文章，題目是「北京背上瀋重的債務」。報導說，中國的公共債務已經佔國內生產總值的58%，而四年前只有17%。公共債務與私營企業的債務加起來，已達到215%，2008年則是131%。

文章指出，中國債務的增速過快，其中主要是地方政府的債務，在兩年半裏增加了67%，達到2萬2千億歐元。許多地方政府深陷泥潭，不得不繼續大量借款來償還利息。

北京「師範大學」MBA導師，經濟專欄作家段紹譯認為，經濟的發展肯定需要融資，融資肯定會增加負債，但是像中國這麽高的負債率，並不是經濟發展的必然副產品。因為，債務分良性和不良債務。

北京師範大學MBA導師段紹譯：「因為有些債務是良性的債務，有些債務是不良債務。良性的債務它能夠產生新的財富。借錢的人賺更多錢，債權人得到更多的利息。如果是不良債務，不能產生新的財富，結果債還不起。」

報導引述美國經濟學家佩蒂斯的話說，在中國，大部分投資是用在修建無人居住的房屋、和無人使用的高速公路或機場，以及無用的工廠等。

中國的「鬼城」林立，從北方的鄂爾多斯到南方的三亞，從富裕的浙江溫州到貧困的寧夏海原。「鬼城」不僅為國人所知，而且已經被西方媒體經常報導。

段紹譯：「這裡面很大一部分就屬於不良債務。它不能產生新的財富，是因為這些投資主要是政府行為，都是不理性的。他就是花別人的錢，辦自己的事。他不講節約的。」

除了「鬼城」之外，大陸各地近年興建的大量豪華建築，也令西方人「目瞪口呆」。《解放報》的報導指出，在安徽的一個小鎮上，當地政府建了一座與美國五角大樓一樣大的辦公大樓。另外，北京、武漢、重慶、廣州等大城市，一共建了60到100座摩天大樓。

段紹譯說，這樣產生的債務，給當局帶來嚴重的信任危機。

段紹譯：「不良債務就是對資源的浪費，就是真正的財富減少了，老百姓真正的福利受到影響。政府不能及時清理這些債務的話，讓老百姓對政府失去信心了。一個國家的農民對政府失去信心的話，只能是災難性的。」

旅美經濟學家程曉農指出，地方政府解決債務問題的辦法，是由中央政府所屬的銀行來承擔。他分析：中央政府不可能讓自己的銀行破產，導致政權垮臺，所以他們就印鈔票，也就是用通貨膨脹的辦法來稀釋債務。

程曉農相信：中共最後不是被地方債直接拖垮，而是被地方債帶來的通貨膨脹拖垮。

中國「浙江大學法律與經濟學研究所」創辦人之一，學者莊道鶴認為，債務瀋重肯定對中國經濟發展有壓力，但是由於體制的原因，當局會用非正常的方式解決。

中國「浙江大學」教師莊道鶴：「毫無疑問，否則就不會有當年的四萬億救市這個行動。但是因為是共產黨執政的國家，它占有了全部的國民經濟資源，包括物資的、人力的，因此它可以以透支的方式，不顧子孫後代發展，進行掠奪性的、破壞性的開發。」

大陸財經評論員，財經專欄作家「牛刀」也認為，從2009年開始，中共大印鈔就是「徹頭徹尾的掠奪全民財富的一場金融行為」，他警告：這是「很危險的」，很多政權都葬送在印鈔上。

採訪編輯/唐音 後製/蕭宇

Public debt accounted for 58% GDP

Expert: Big plundering with big money printing

Overseas media recently reported on the serious debt

problems in China.

Is the high continental asset ratio inevitable in

this economic development?

How can these debts be incurred? How can they be paid off?

Is there any impact on the people and Beijing authorities?

Why do Economists call money printing a “dangerous game"?

Let’s take a look at the experts’ analysis.

French newspaper “Liberation" recently published a long article

in the business section titled, “Beijing’s heavy debts".

The article says China’s public debt is already accounted for

by 58% of GDP, while only being 17% four years ago.

Public debt and private sector debt together have reached 215%

of GDP while only being 131% in 2008.

The article pointed out China’s fast growing debt problem is

mainly because of local government debt.

It increased by 67 percent to 2.2 trillion euros in 2.5 years.

Many local governments are in a deep pit and have to continue

to borrow heavily to pay interest.

Beijing Normal University MBA mentor, economic columnist

Duan Shaoyi believes that economic development will certainly

require financing, thus increasing liability.

China’s high debt ratio is not the inevitable by-product of

economic development because the debt includes

good debt and bad debt.

Beijing Normal University MBA mentor Duan Shaoyi: good

debt can generate new wealth, which means borrower can make

more money and creditors can receive more interest.

Bad debt means it cannot produce new wealth and the borrower

cannot pay off the debt.

An article quoted American economist Pettis’s word that most

of China’s investment is used in the construction of

uninhabited houses, useless highways or airports,

as well as useless factories.

“Ghost towns" are everywhere in China from the northerly Ordos

to the southerly Sanya, from the wealthy Wenzhou to the poor

Haiyuan of Ningxia.

“Ghost Towns" are not only known by the Chinese people but

frequently reported on by Western media.

Duan Shaoyi: There is a large part of bad debt that can’t

generate new wealth.

These investments are mainly irrational government actions.

They just do their own thing using other people’s money, not

talking about saving.

In addition to the ghost towns, a large number of continental

luxury buildings in recent years have also stunned

the Western world.

“Liberation " reported that there is a same government

building as the Pentagon in a small town in Anhui.

In addition, there are 60-100 skyscrapers in Beijing, Wuhan,

Chongqing, Guangzhou and in other big cities.

Duan Shaoyi said that the debt has brought a serious

crisis of confidence for the authorities.

Duan Shaoyi: bad debt is a waste of resources and reduction

of real wealth which will affect people’s benefits.

People will lose confidence in the government if these debts

cannot be cleaned up.

It will be disastrous if farmers lose their confidence

in the government.

US economist Cheng Xiaonong pointed out that the local

government’s solution of the debt problem is to let

government-owned banks undertake.

He analyzed: The central government will not make their own

banks fail, leading to the collapse of the regime; so they may

print money and dilute debt via inflation.

Cheng Xiaonong believes: The Chines Communist Party’s (CCP)

imminent collapse is not because of local bonds but

the inflation from local bonds.

One founder of the Law and Economics Institute in Zhejiang

University, scholar Zhuang Daohe believes that heavy debt

certainly added more pressure to China’s economic development,

but the authorities will use an abnormal solution

due to the system.

China Zhejiang University Teacher Zhuang Daohe: There is no

doubt, or there wouldn’t have been 40,000 trillion

bailout bills that year.

The authorities, who are the CCP have taken possession of all

the national economic resources,

including materials and manpower.

So it can engage in predatory and destructive development by

means of overdrawing disregarding development

for future generations.

Mainland financial commentator, financial columnist “chopper"

also believes that from 2009, the CCP’s money printing

represents financial behavior of downright

plundering national wealth.

He warned it to be very dangerous because many regimes are

buried in printing money.

Interview & Edit/TangYin Post-Production/XiaoYu