【新唐人2013年12月11日訊】8號，朝鮮召開勞動黨中央政治局擴大會議，宣佈朝鮮最高領導人金正恩的姑父張成澤(Jang Song Thaek)，犯有反黨反革命行為，已解除他一切職務，並開除他的黨籍。而張成澤是輔佐金正恩接班的「攝政王」，素來與中共關係密切，這一事件是否會影響中、朝未來的關係？我們來看看專家的分析。

67歲的張成澤，被認為是朝鮮領導層的第二號人物，解職前，任職朝鮮勞動黨中央政治局委員、北韓國防委員會副委員長、和勞動黨中央行政部部長，具有人民軍大將軍軍銜。

2011年底，朝鮮前領導人金正日突然離世，張成澤輔佐當時年輕、沒有政治經驗的金正恩上臺。張成澤被視為金正恩背後的「攝政王」。

兩年後的今天，12月8號，金正恩在平壤主持了勞動黨中央政治局擴大會議，會議宣佈解除張成澤的一切職務、剝奪一切頭銜、並開除黨籍，而張成澤本人則被當場抓捕。

朝鮮通訊社《朝中社》12月9號發佈朝鮮當局《關於張成澤事件公報》，公報中對他的指控包括﹕反黨、反革命、結黨營私、賣國、貪腐、吸毒、賭博和生活作風不正等。

《德國之聲》專訪韓國首爾「阿登納基金會」的專家艾甚保恩（Norbert Eschborn），他表示：近兩年來，朝鮮有許多曾經權傾一時的軍方和黨內領導人失蹤。今天看來，他們恐怕是在金正恩鞏固權力的過程中被去職。

韓國首爾國立大學統一研究院（ Institute for National Unification in Seoul）的高級研究員鄭永泰(Jeung Young-tae)也向《德國之聲》表示，張成澤這次是徹底落馬，因為一山容不得二虎。

韓國媒體援引情報部門的消息說，張成澤可能在上個月就已經被解職，張的兩個親信也因為腐敗罪名被處決，另一名親信則叛逃到中國尋求韓國庇護。

韓國《YTN》有線新聞網在報導中說，這名掌管張成澤資金的親信，兩個月前向韓國提出政治庇護，目前在中國的一個秘密地點並受到韓國官員的保護。據說此人了解金正恩家族的資金情況。

此外，張成澤與朝鮮的盟友——中共關係緊密，曾在2012年訪問北京。

那麼張成澤的落馬，對中朝關係是否帶來影響？

美國哥倫比亞大學政治學博士李天笑認為，不會有任何影響，原因有三。

李天笑：「首先，朝鮮內部的任何變動，都是小范圍的調整，它只不過是在某些方面，可能會在迎合中共方面有一些跟原來不同的區別，但是在大的方面他還是總的要聽中共的。」

此外，朝鮮一波一波的清洗，金正恩的權利得到了鞏固，李天笑指出，實際上金正恩一直在中共的扶持下，當年金正日帶著金正恩到中國，求得當時中共高層的接受，中共高層已經答應把金正恩作為朝鮮的接班人來扶持。

李天笑：「所以說他雙方的關係就是一種默契，所以金正恩他現在處理誰，不處理誰，其實中共應該是得到某種風聲，或者說金正恩在某些方面，會給中共一種暗示，實際也得到中共的首肯。」

李天笑還指出，中共和朝鮮的政治格局，整個的政治體制是一致的，整肅的方式，和中共同出一轍。

李天笑：「中共歷史上到現在為止，一直是按照這種方式在黨內來進行整肅，然後，通過內鬥來把自己的政治對手搞掉，然後鞏固自己的權利，但對人民來說，其實沒有任何的幫助，人民照樣受苦，照樣受迫害，所以我想從這幾點來看，中朝的關係不會有任何大的改變。」

中共當局對朝鮮政壇這場動盪，沒有做太多的表態，中國外交部發言人洪磊9號在例行記者會上回應說，「我們注意到了相關報導。這是朝鮮內部事務。」

採訪編輯/常春 後製/李勇

Will Jang Song-thaek’s Arrest Affect China-North Korea Relations?

On December 8, North Korea held a Workers’ Party politburo

assembly and announced that

Kim Jong-un’s uncle Jang Song-thaek has been dismissed

from all his posts and was expelled from the party.

However, Jang is Kim Jong-un’s assistant,

he helped Kim take office.

Jang had a close association with China,

will the move affect the two countries’ relationship?

Let’s take a look.

Jang Song-thaek, age 67, was considered a second man

in North Korea.

He served as a member of Workers’ Party Central Committee,

deputy chairman of the National Defense Commission,

director of Workers Party Central Administration Department,

and has the rank of People’s Army major general.

At end of 2011, when Kim Jong-il, former leader

of North Korea suddenly died, Jang assisted Kim Jong-un,

who at the time was young and lacked political experience,

to take office.

Jang was said to be manipulative of Kim Jong-un.

Two years later, on December 8, Kim chaired

the central meeting.

The meeting announced Jang’s dismissal, stripped him

of all his positions and expelled him from the party.

Jang was publicly arrested at the assembly hall.

On December 9, North Korea news agency KCNA

issued a communiqué.

The communiqué accused Jang of being

a counter-revolutionary, anti-state activities,

and committing betrayal, corruption, drug abuse,

gambling as well as womanizing.

Deutsche Welle (DW) interviewed Norbert Eschborn, expert

at Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Seoul, South Korea.

He said that over the past two years, many North Korean

leaders who had a powerful military and party influence

went missing.

We can tell from today’s events that these people were likely

removed during the process of Kim’s power consolidation.

Jeung Young-tae, senior researcher at the Institute

for National Unification in Seoul, also told DW that

Jang has been completely removed this time, because

“two tigers cannot live on the same mountain.”

South Korea’s media cited intelligence information which

revealed Jang likely was removed last month,

and his two relatives were executed on charges of corruption.

One of his relatives escaped to China

and applied for asylum in South Korea.

South Korea’s YTN news channel reported that this relative,

who controls Jang’s assets, applied for political asylum

in South Korea two months ago.

He stayed at a secret location in China

under South Korean official’s protection.

Sources say that this person knows

Kim Jong-un family’s financial details.

Jang had close contact with the Chinese Communist

Party (CCP). He visited Beijing in 2012.

Will Jang’s downfall affect China and North Korea’s

relationship?

Dr. Li Tianxiao of Columbia University political science

department says that it won’t have any affect.

Li Tianxiao: “Any changes within North Korea

are small adjustments.

In some way, in the aspect of North Korea wanting

to curry favor to the CCP, it may have some difference.

In broad terms, they still need to listen to the CCP.”

In addition, in North Korea’s wave of purging

Kim Jong-un has consolidated his power.

Li Tianxiao says that actually, Kim Jong-un has always

been supported by the CCP.

At the time when his father took him to visit China, they

expected the CCP high-level to accept Kim Jong-un.

the CCP promised to support him

as North Korean’s successor.

Li Tianxiao: “The both countries had a tacit agreement.

Thus if Kim Jong-un wanted to remove someone

the CCP would have known earlier.

Somehow, Kim Jong-un would give the CCP

some type of hint.

Actually, it has been agreed on by the CCP.”

Li Tianxiao points out that the CCP and North Korea

have the same political pattern.

Their entire political system is consistent.

The method of purging in North Korea

is the same as the CCP’s.

Li Tianxiao: “In the CCP history up until today,

the CCP always uses this way to purge within the party –

through internal struggle it clears out its political

opponents and consolidates the power.

However, it doesn’t do any good for its people.

The people are still suffering and being persecuted.

From this point of view, I will say that China and

North Korea’s relationship will not have major changes.”

The Chinese regime didn’t respond much

about North Korea’s move.

The foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said in a press

conference on December 9 that,

“We have noticed relevant reports.

That is North Korea’s internal affairs.”