【新唐人2013年11月22日訊】中國今年6月的「錢荒」，讓當前大陸銀行體系存在的流動性風險，受到前所未有的關注。中共中央財經領導小組辦公室高級官員日前在財經論壇上警告，由於大陸中小金融機構嚴重依賴「理財產品」和「同業存款」作為資金來源，明年將會有部分中小型銀行因面臨資金流動性風險而出現計提、倒閉情況，如果處置不當，將有可能波及整個金融系統。
據大陸媒體《財經》雜誌報導，在今年11月20號舉辦的《財經》年會上，金融行業的安全性成為會場關注的焦點。「中央財經領導小組辦公室」巡視員方星海在會上表示，目前大陸金融業主要存在四大風險，包括「流動性風險」、「利率風險」、「資產質量風險」，及包含信託理財、影子銀行在內的「或有風險」。這四大風險主要集中在銀行領域，尤其是「流動性風險」，將有可能導致中小銀行破產。
方星海指出，據銀監會透露，目前中國相當一批中小金融機構,特別是中小銀行，80%的資金來源，是來自於理財產品、或銀行間市場借貸和同業存款，僅有20%是來自於企業的儲蓄存款，因而增加了「流動性風險」。
中國金融分析師任中道：「因為老百姓都知道現在存款放在銀行裏面，那就是一個負利率時代，它不斷在縮水，為了獲得更多利息，他就去買這種理財產品。為甚麼說銀行的理財產品涉及影子銀行呢？因為它不受監管嘛，利用理財產品名義去大量的吸收存款，然後把資金吸收回來再去放貸來賺取利潤，一旦鏈條上某一環節出現了問題，那整個鏈條就會崩裂。」
由於這些中小銀行和金融機構放貸對像主要是房地產以及地方融資平臺，都是比較長期的項目，但銀行用來放貸的資金來源卻是短期的。方星海認為，長此以往，就會導致這些中小金融機構資金周轉不靈，出現沒有錢還存款的情況，如果處置不得當，一些中小銀行極有可能因為「流動性風險」而面臨計提、倒閉的狀況。方星海警告央行和銀監會，應該及時做好處置預案，避免風險擴散到整個金融系統。
在利率風險方面，方星海指出，現在儲蓄存款在銀行資金來源比例方面在下降，理財產品卻備受銀行推崇。中小型銀行為了爭奪資源，在發行理財產品上，一直非常大膽，比四大銀行還敢於提升理財產品的利率，使最近理財產品利率上升極快，但這些中小銀行的基礎資產，可能無法維持這種高報酬率，恐怕會出現因為資產配置產生的收益率，覆蓋不了資金來源的成本，導致金融機構的虧損甚至破產。
任中道：「銀行由於資金流動性緊張，它只好利用理財產品的高利率來吸收存款，中共的體制導致中國的金融風險是非常高的。老百姓買理財產品最後會虧的很慘。一旦發生危機的話，肯定是會很慘的。最後上告無門，最後只能變成銀行的爛賬、壞帳，不了了之掉了。」
除了中共財經高官預警，中共國務院有關部門正在加緊制定的《存款保險條例》，一旦實施就代表著允許銀行破產的開始。而作為經濟晴雨表的股市率先反應，21號，大陸中小型銀行股在全綫下挫，平安銀行跌超過3%，興業銀行、民生銀行、浦發銀行跌2%以上。
種種跡象顯示，中共當局已經知道金融危機無法避免，因此提前放出各種消息，以免危機突發時，民眾因承受不住打擊而引起巨大的社會動盪。
採訪編輯/張天宇 後製/陳建銘
Chinese Communist Party High-Level Officials Warn
That Small Banks Will Go Bankrupt In 2014
China’s “money shortage" of June this year has attracted
unprecedented attention to its banking system liquidity risk.
Recently a senior official of the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) Central Financial and Economic Leading Committee
Office said a warning at a finance forum;
He said that since small and medium financial institutions in
China rely heavily on “financial products" and “interbank
deposits" as the source of funds, some small and medium
banks will go bankrupt next year facing liquidity risk.
If this is not handled properly, it is likely to affect the
entire financial system .
China’s Finance magazine reported,on the annual meeting of
Finance held on November 20,the safety of the financial sector
became the focus of the venue.
CCP Central Financial and Economic Leading Committee
Officeinspector Fang Xinghai said at the meeting that China
has four major financial risks:
Liquidity Risk, Interest Rate Risk, Asset Quality Risk,
and Possible Risk of trust banking and shadow banking.
These four risks reside mainly in the banking field.
Liquidity Risk, in particular, will likely lead to
bankruptcy of small and medium banks.
Fang Xinghai pointed out that China Banking Regulatory
Commission (CBRC) revealed 80% of the funding of many
small and medium financial institutions, especially small and
medium banks, are financial products.
These products are inter-bank lending and interbank deposits.
Only 20% comes from corporate savings deposits,
thereby the Liquidity Risk is high.
Chinese financial analysts Ren Zhongdao:"People are all
aware that deposits have negative interest.
Money saved in banks constantly shrinks. In order to get
more interest, they buy financial products.
Why do banks’ financial products involve shadow banks?
Because it is not regulated.
Use financial products to absorb a large number of deposits,
and then make a profit by lending.
Once part of the chain has a problem,
the whole chain will crack."
These small banks and financial institutions mainly lend to
real estate and local financing platforms which are relatively
long-term.But the source of funds used by banks is short-term.
Fang Xinghai thinks that these small and medium financial
institutions will have liquidity problems in the long run.
There will be no money deposit.If the issue is not handled well,
some small and medium banks are likely to go bankrupt
because of liquidity risk.
Fang Xinghai warned the central bank and CBRC plan a
solution in a timely manner to avoid the risk spreading to the
entire financial system .
Regarding interest rate risk, Fang Xinghai pointed out that
the ratio of deposits in banks is declining, while financial
products are welcomed.
Small and medium sized banks are very aggressive in issuing
financial products, even more than the four major banks, in
order to compete for resources.
With interest rates of financial products rising very fast lately,
the underlying assets of smaller banks may not be able to
maintain high returns.
Asset allocation earnings not able to cover the cost of funding
will result in losses or even bankruptcy of financial institutions.
Ren Zhongdao: “Banks had to absorb deposits with
high interest rate financial products.
China’s financial risk is very high under the CCP regime.
People who bought financial products will eventually lose
badly. There is no way for people to appeal.
The products eventually just became banks’ bad debts."
In addition to the warning by the CCP high-level official,
related departments of the CCP State Council are drafting
the Deposit Insurance Act.
The implementation of this marks the beginning of
allowing banks to go bankrupt.
The stock market, as an economic barometer, had the first
reaction.
China’s small and medium sized banks fell on November 21st
stock market, with Ping An Bank falling three percent and
Industrial Bank, China Minsheng Bank, and Shanghai Pudong
Development Bank falling two percent.
All these signs indicate that the CCP know about a financial
crisis that cannot be avoided.
They released the news to avoid great social unrests
when people could not handle the blow.
Interview & Edit/ZhangTianyu Post-Production/ChenJianmin