【新唐人2013年09月17日訊】目前，中國大陸外資的瘋狂撤離，使得中共新政更加舉足維艱，中共國務院總理李克強壯士斷腕通過而早產的「上海自貿區」，能否彌補被「跨太平洋夥伴關係（TPP）」排擠在外，而帶來的尷尬和損失，備受外界質疑。而「上海自貿區」的建立 誰會是其中最大的收益者？下面請看專家分析。

自中共國務院8月下旬批准設立上海自貿區以來，上海國際港務股份有限公司的股價累計飆升，已經超過130%。由於市場猜測其他沿海城市也有望成立類似的「自貿區」，天津港的股價也上漲了30%。

外界預計上海自貿區的試點將涉及金融管制的放鬆，「上海浦東發展銀行」股價自上週四以來，累計上漲了30%。

中共國務院批准設立上海自貿區的官方公告，只有三段文字。公告強調，自貿區將包括進一步擴大服務業開放、和深化金融領域的開放創新。

但各種渠道放出風來，「上海自貿區」建設配套措施中，最引人注目的一項，是人民幣在資本項目下將實現可自由兌換。

美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「如果在上海實行資本項目下的人民幣可以（自由）兌換的話，我們可以想像，會存在匯率的雙軌制，會使得一些中共官員有極大的尋租、貪污和腐敗的機會，如果這個兌換溢到自貿區之外的話，可能會引發房地產泡沫的破滅。」

歷史上，東南亞等國家在經濟發展到一定程度後，都嚐試過匯率市場化，但是開放到一半，就積聚起巨大的債務與泡沫而崩潰。日本匯率徹底放開後，也導致泡沫上升而崩潰，歐元同樣禁不住次貸危機的轟炸，再也無法與美元旗鼓相當。

隨著經濟全球化的實現，跨太平洋夥伴關係和美歐自由貿易區（TTIP）將佔據未來全球GDP的80%以上，而這兩個「貿易區」並沒有吸收中國參加。

有評論認為，「上海自貿區」的設立，有利於在泛太平洋夥伴關係協議談判中為中國加分。

謝田：「但是TPP是國家級參與的項目，不可能是一個特區，或一個上海市來加入，中共用上海自由兌換區，在區內實行人民幣自由兌換，可能是為了輿論上的好處，它可以說，是人民幣整體自由兌換的一個試驗，或一個先導。」

據中共商務部國際貿易經濟合作研究院副院長邢厚媛透露，中共在多邊貿易體制遇到很多障礙和困難，「多哈談判」沒有取得新的突破，在「跨太平洋夥伴關係協議」談判中，中國被邊緣化。而其他發展中國家，在利用外資方面的政策競爭也在加劇，一些國家的成本要素優勢逐漸顯現出來，而中國的優勢卻在下降，資本向外轉移已經出現苗頭。

台灣中華經濟研究院研究員吳惠林：「到最後還是回歸經營環境，要有法治，又很穩定的、很安全的。一個是政治方面，另外一個，經濟方面，相對要比人家好，但是中國（經濟）現在正在下降當中，是不是一個上海能把它挽回，以我個人看，很困難。」

有人甚至認為，上海可能成為第二個深圳，帶來中國經濟的第二輪奇蹟。台灣「中華經濟研究院」研究員吳惠林指出，當年深圳以廉價的勞動力、低價的土地、犧牲環境和資源為代價，給中國的經濟帶來了短期的騰飛，實際上50年代，前蘇聯領導人赫魯曉夫也是採取這種辦法，但最終導致經濟崩潰。

吳惠林：「後遺症都已經出現了，其實不應該再追求經濟成長。李克強上臺時，也有這種說法，可是這個東西對他們短期就非常的不利，因為泡沫經濟已經非常嚴重，他們其實已經進退維谷。」

英國《金融時報》專欄作家葉檀認為，不出意外的話，中國境內外大規模的貨幣會湧向「自貿區」，形成龐大的「貨幣堰塞湖」，「自貿區」的貨幣水位必然帶來人民幣升值壓力，也會帶來更多的資產泡沫。

採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/鍾元

Who Benefits From Shanghai Free Trade Area?

Currently, the side effects of reforms over the past 30

years are becoming more and more apparent in China.

High levels of withdrawal of foreign investment

from the mainland are slowing the economy.

There is also hesitation from the new investments coming in.

There are questions over the premature “Shanghai Free

Trade Zone”, and whether it can lessen embarrassment.

Will it stop China being marginalized

from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)?

Can the establishment of the “Shanghai

Free Trade Area” revive China’s economy?

Who is the biggest beneficiary of this trade zone?

Let’s take a look at our expert’s analysis.

In late August, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)

State Council approved the establishment of 29 square kilometers of a “Shanghai Free Trade Area” (FTA).

Stocks of “Shanghai International Port

Co., Ltd." have soared to more than 130%.

According to market speculation, other coastal cities

are also expected to set up similar “free trade zones”.

Tianjin Port’s share price rose by 30%.

The “Shanghai Free Trade Area” pilot is

expected to result in financial deregulation.

“Shanghai Pudong Development Bank"

shares rose by 30% since last Thursday.

The Wall Street Journal reported that it’s very strange

that rumors drive trading results in Shanghai Stock.

The article also said that it is not only capital controls and

unpredictable volatility that reduce Shanghai’s attractiveness.

It is also weak rule of law, poor corporate

governance and other systemic problems.

Investment in Shanghai is overhasty. There are

only three paragraphs in the official announcement.

The announcement emphasized that the project

will include furthering the scope of business services.

It aims to open financial sector innovation in free trade area.

Of all the supporting measures in constructing

the Shanghai FTA, the most attractive one is RMB free exchange under capital account.

Xie Tian, Professor at Aiken Business

School, University of South Carolina:

“We can imagine that RMB free exchange under capital

account may bring a duel system in the exchange rates.

It may increase rent-seeking, as well

as corruption within the CCP officials.

It may also result in the real estate bubble bursting,

if RMB free exchange occurs outside the FTA.

Historically, Southeast Asia and other developing

countries have all tried market-oriented exchange rates.

This takes place at certain stages of economic development.

They amass huge debts and the debt bubble

collapsed during the process of opening.

In Japan, exchange rate liberalization

lead to the bubble rising and collapsing.

The euro can’t survive from subprime crisis

and can’t be matched with the U.S. Dollar

The “Trans-Pacific Partnership” and “US-EU free trade

zone” (TTIP) will occupy more than 80% of global GDP.

With economic globalization, neither

of the two trade zones attracts China.

Some commentators believe that the “Shanghai Free

Trade Zone” may earn extra points for China in the “Trans-Pacific Partnership” (TPP) negotiations.

Xie Tian: The “TPP is an international

project, not a US or Shanghai one.

RMB being freely tradable in the Shanghai

FTA will certainly benefit public opinion.

You can tell that RMB being freely

convertible is an experiment or pilot.”

Xing Houyuan, Vice President of the International Trade

and Economic Cooperation Research Institute, commented.

China is encountering many obstacles and

difficulties in the multi-lateral trading system.

There has been no new improvement in Doha negotiations.

China is being marginalized in the TPP negotiations.

There is more competition in the use of foreign

investment within other developing countries.

The advantage of the cost element is increasing

in some countries and decreasing in China.

There have been signs of capital

being transferred out of China.

Wu Huilin, Taiwan China Economic

Research Institute researcher:

“There must eventually be stable and

safe rules for a business environment.

The political and economic environment

should be better than other countries.

But China’s economy is declining.

In my opinion, it’s impossible to save China’s

economy if everything depends on Shanghai.”

Some people even believe Shanghai

could become a second Shenzhen.

They think it could bring China an economic miracle again.

Wu Huilin thinks that Shenzhen has taken

advantage of cheap labor and cheap land.

However, it has sacrificed the environment and

resources, to obtain a short-term improvement.

In the 1950s, Khrushchev, former leader of the Soviet Union,

also took this approach, but caused the economy to collapse.

Wu Huilin: “Side effects have occurred.

Actually, they shouldn’t pursue economic growth any

longer. Li Keqiang has said the same after taking office.

However, it is no good for them in the short-term.

The economic bubble is getting serious

now, and they are in a dilemma situation.

I still hoped it was just short-term pains,

and that it doesn’t run into a collapse.”

Ye Tan, a column writer for the Financial Times, said

that logically, massive monetary funds will flow into the FTA, and gather a massive amount of currency.

The monetary levels in Free Trade Zone will inevitably

bring pressure on the RMB, and cause more bubbles.