【新唐人2013年07月18日訊】在很多經濟學家大談中國經濟硬著陸，經濟危機已經悄然來臨的同時，中共統計局宣佈，中國上半年GDP同比增長7.6％。不過這個數字，令外界跌破眼鏡，認為無法與中國社會出現的錢荒、通貨膨脹、失業和外資的撤逃，以及股市、房市等經濟下滑的現況相匹配，也背離了「李克強經濟學」所謂回歸市場的規律。
7月15號，統計局公布上半年經濟數據，上半年國內生產總值（GDP）248,009億元，同比增長7.6％，二季度GDP同比增長7.5％。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「中共的統計數字是完全不可信的，它造假顯現出來的虛假的繁榮與它的錢荒，通貨膨脹和其他令民眾不滿的失業和外資的撤逃，和股市、房市都是不相匹配，在GDP上造假，其他方面很難圓融。」
北京「天則經濟研究所」副所長馮興元，日前向《新唐人》表示，經濟危機在中國已經局部爆發。英國《金融時報》財經版塊主編徐瑾則撰文說，中國經濟增速將下臺階，已逐漸成為業界共識，但北京所能容忍的經濟增長「下限」仍諱莫如深。中共總理李克強的憂慮，恐怕難以隨著李克強經濟學的走紅而消解。
「李克強經濟學」是以限縮政府行政職能、利率市場化、淘汰落後產能等，擠掉GDP「水分」，以短痛換得健康的經濟成長。
台灣中華經濟研究院研究員吳惠林: 「李克強經濟學，其中有一個東西是不要去刺激經濟，讓經濟增長。那當然掉的就會更快，跟過去完全相反，一漲一縮，掉的就非常大，可是現在所公布的降的不是那麼大，這個就非常讓人懷疑。」
7月9號，統計局公布生產者物價指數（PPI）數據顯示，PPI同比下降2.7％，已經連續16個月下降，而消費者物價指數（CPI）則在上漲，兩者呈燕尾式背離狀態，不符合價格傳導規律。
7月1號，中共當局發佈製造業採購經理指數（PMI）降到50.1％，創4個月以來新低。同一天，匯豐控股發佈的PMI終值為48.2，更是跌破代表製造業擴張與收縮的榮枯線50％，創9個月以來新低。
7月10號，中共海關總署公布的外貿數據顯示，6月份進出口貿易數字雙降，出口同比下降了3.1％，進口同比下降了0.7％。
各路經濟學家早已指出，中國固定資產投資嚴重失衡，地方債務高築，面臨大量違約風險，拉動中國經濟的三駕馬車——投資、消費、出口全部趴下，而國內消費早就一年不如一年。
謝田：「它（中共當局）在系統性的給它提高了一個數字，或者變換數字，實際上從它造假的數字當中，我還是可以分析出來它的一些趨勢，從最新的趨勢看來，它也不得不承認，中國的經濟危機已經在發生之中，這實際上我們大概在兩個月之前就提出來過了。」
國務院參事夏斌撰文指出，中國已存在事實上的經濟危機，之所以危機還沒有引爆，壞賬沒有暴露，是靠多發貨幣掩蓋。夏斌還指出，當前的中國經濟，不整頓，早晚要出事，但是整狠了，馬上就出事。
7月11號，中共財政部長樓繼偉在華盛頓接受記者採訪時說，中共當局今年的目標，未來也許可以容忍低到6.5％的水平。樓繼偉還說，今年的增長目標是7％。
謝田：「有一個可能，現任經濟決策層不願意背前任的黑鍋，在外界的壓力之下，慢慢的把中國的經濟暴露出來，這樣的話，他們可以撇清他們和前任的關係。」
不過，7月13號，中共喉舌《新華社》一篇英文稿，將此前引用樓繼偉說的GDP增長為7％的報導，修改到7.5％，以符合官方宣佈的目標。
謝田：「它如果把中國的造假一下就全部公開，讓人們大吃一驚，極為震驚的話，可能會危及的政權的穩定，我想它就是用溫水煮青蛙的方式，慢慢的降低。」
台灣中華經濟研究院研究員吳惠林教授指出，中國經濟面臨崩潰已經是經濟學家的共識，只不過，是以硬著陸或是軟著陸的方式崩潰，專家們還存在一些分歧。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/鍾元
China’s GDP – Going Against Premier Li Keqiang’s Plan?
Many economists are talking about China’s economic
hard landing, and ongoing economic crisis.
China’s Statistic Bureau said that in the first half of
the year GDP grew 7.6%. However, this data is questioned by economists.
They say, it does not explain the recent problems of cash
shortage, inflation, the unemployment rate and cash outflow.
In addition, it doesn’t comply with stock market and
house price’s decline.
It also flies in the face of Premier Li Keqiang’s Economic plan.
On July15, China’s Statistics Bureau data shows that
in the first half of the year GDP’s absolute value reading
of 24.8 trillion yuan (US$4 trillion), increased 7.6%.
The 2nd quarter GDP growth slowed to 7.5%.
Xie Tian, professor at Aiken Business School of
the University of South Carolina:"The data isn’t reliable.
The CCP’s created surplus flourish doesn’t tally with
recent cash shortage, inflation, unemployment,
cash outflow, stock market and housing market problems.
The CCP made up a false GDP, other factors and indicators
do not match with it."
Feng Xingyuan, deputy director of Beijing Unirule Institute
of Economics told NTD that
a financial crisis has already started in some areas of China.
Financial Times editor Xu Jin published an article stating that
China’s falling economic growth is common knowledge.
How much of this can Beijing take? it’s unclear.
Li Keqiang’s worries are unlikely to clear up just by
increasing the popular of his economic plan.
Li Keqiang pledged to shrink the governmental administrative
overload, allowing the market to play a full role,
discarding outdated production methods, and verify the
correct GDP, in order to produce a healthy economic growth.
Wu Yuyin, research fellow of Chung-Hua Institution for
Economic Researcher: “One major drawback in Li Keqiang’s
economic plan is that there is no economic stimulus. Just let
it grow.
Growth will decrease faster, the very opposite of past patterns,
one rising, one shrinking. It will slowdown greatly.
According to the latest data, this didn’t decline too much,
That’s why we doubt it."
On July 9, the data for the Producer Price Index shows (PPI),
PPI dropped 2.7%, declining for 16 consecutive months;
while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is rising .
These trends do not meet the price transmission rules.
On July 1, the latest data shows Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 50.1, the lowest level in the last 4 months.
On the same day, HSBC’s PMI dropped to 48.2.
That is below the cut-off level of 50 that divides expansion
from contraction, the lowest in the last 9 months.
On July 10, China’s trading data shows exports and imports
both dropped in June. Exports fell 3.1% and imports fell 0.7%.
Earlier economists have pointed out that China’s
fixed assets investment is seriously imbalanced.
Local debt has greatly accumulated,
facing substantial risk of breaching the contract.
It has dragged down investment, consumption and exports.
Yet domestic consumption is increasingly
worsening each year.
Xie Tian:"The CCP systematically increases statistical
numbers, or doctor the figures.
From the false data I can analyze some of the trends.
We can tell from the latest trends,
the CCP has had to admit that
China’s financial crisis is already happening,
we actually talked about it two months ago."
Xia Bin, Counselor of China’s State Council said that
actually China’s economic crisis already exists.
What’s the reason it hasn’t detonated yet?
Because the bad debt is not exposed,
it is covered up by producing more currency.
Xia Bin said that if China’s economy is not dealt with now,
sooner or later something severe will happen.
But, if interfered with too drastically
the bad thing will happen immediately.
On July 11, Lou Jiwei, Minister of Finance said
in an interview in Washington that the authorities this year can accept GDP slowed 6.5%.
Lou added that, they expected GDP’s growth will drop to 7%.
Xie Tian: “One possibility is that the current decision-makers
do not want to take the blame for the former leaders.
Under pressure from the outside world,
China’s true economy is gradually being exposed,
so that they can distance themselves
from the former leaders."
On July 13, the CCP mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency
published an English article;
Lou’s saying that the GDP growth of 7%, was modified
to 7.5%, so as to match the figure that was officially released.
Xie Tian:"If the CCP completely exposed its true economy,
people will be surprised and shocked.
It may trigger a political crisis and instability.
I think they want to take some time to slowdown
the figure gradually."
Wu Huilin said that China’s economy is facing collapse.
It has become the common knowledge of economists.
However, by which way it will collapse;
a hard landing or soft landing? Experts are still in debate.