【新唐人2013年04月16日訊】朝鮮不斷加大威脅力度，造成朝鮮半島緊張局勢升溫。但朝鮮領導人金正恩在向國際社會發出威脅言論後，已經兩週沒有公開露面，他的動向引發外界關注。美國國務卿克里在緊張局勢加劇的情況下，訪問韓、中、日三國，並敦促中共當局勸說朝鮮放棄核武器計劃。作為平壤政府唯一盟友和支持者的中共，如何接過美國拋過來的這顆球？一起來看看。
韓國《聯合新聞通信社》報導，身為朝鮮國防委員會第一委員長的金正恩，自本月1號出席最高人民會議之後，到14號已有兩週沒有在公開場合露面。這引來各種傳聞和猜測，是否，朝鮮內部出現軍事政變，或是，平壤政權核心人物張成澤被監禁等。不過，韓國情報當局表示，這些也只是毫無根據的揣測，朝鮮方面沒有出現異常動靜。
報導引述精通朝鮮情勢人士的說法，金正恩在積極公開活動後突然又不露面，可能也是一種心理戰，想藉此引起國際社會關注。
美國《中國事務》雜誌主編伍凡：「他出來能講甚麼呢？你沒有力量、力量又小，又引起人家討厭，又要發動戰爭。現在中美兩國對你，你打也好，我有打的方法對付你，你不打也好，我也有不打的方法對付你，就這麼一個目標：要把你核武全部拿掉，而這是金胖子最不願意的，所以他現在藏起來，不知道用甚麼辦法來應對中美兩國的決策。」
14號，美國國務卿克里同日本外相岸田文雄，就朝鮮半島核危機展開會談，克里表示，美國會採取「一切必要手段」，保護日本和韓國的安全。
13號，克里在抵達日本之前，曾到北京進行了緊張的外交斡旋。他對包括中共國家主席習近平在內的中共領導人發出警告說﹕如果朝鮮發射導彈的話，將會導致嚴重後果。有消息表示，在這一議題上，克里得到了北京政府的重要支持。
而中共國務院總理李克強在中南海紫光閣會見克里時表示，在朝鮮半島挑事生事，無異於搬石頭砸自己的腳。
伍凡：「現在克里已經答應了，如果你把核武拿掉以後，美國就把反導彈系統撤走，他不需要搞那麼多反導彈系統。美國希望中國給朝鮮施加壓力，讓他把核武拿掉，下一步棋就看中共怎麼走了，這個球現在踢到了中共！但是他（李克強）已經警告了朝鮮，不要拿石頭砸自己的腳。」
中共是平壤政府的唯一盟友和支持者，被普遍視為唯一能對朝鮮施加影響的國家。據美國外交關係學會（Council on Foreign Relations）估計，朝鮮90%的能源供給依賴於中國。
但到目前為止，外界普遍認為，北京方面對朝鮮增加的壓力「並不清晰」。美國《紐約時報》的報導提及，與克里同機隨行的一名美國國務院高級官員表示，美國希望中共當局遏制通過影子公司和銀行轉移的非法資金流，因為朝鮮政府正利用這些資金支持核武器計劃。
「中國外交學院亞太研究中心」主任蘇浩說，中共當局也在做朝鮮的工作，甚至帶著批評的語氣。但朝鮮的表現，似乎並不太接受和尊重這位中共「老大哥」。
中國外交學院亞太研究中心主任 蘇浩教授：「（李克強）這個話沒有指說誰，針對誰，這個話可以用各種方式來解讀。當然目前朝鮮這種非常突出的行為帶來的局勢，它是很不負責任的，非常不理性的行為和做法，導致了這種緊張狀況更加的升級。所以中國(共)政府對朝鮮應該說是帶有批評的味道在裡邊。」
此外，《韓聯社》說，4月15號是朝鮮已故前國家最高領導人金日成的誕辰，推測，金正恩很可能會前往「錦繡山太陽宮」進行參拜。外界預計，平壤政權正在考慮下一步的動作。而韓國政府正密切注意朝鮮有甚麼動向。
採訪/常春 編輯/王子琦 後製/李勇
Kim Jong-un Disappears For Two Weeks, How CCP Deal With This ?
The ongoing North Korean threat has resulted in tensions on
the Korean Peninsula.
However, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has not shown
his face for two weeks, after his threatening remarks to the international community.
His movements are
attracting outside attention.
Due to heightened tensions, the U.S. Secretary of State
John Kerry has just visited Japan, Korea, and China.
Kerry has urged the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to
persuade N. Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
The CCP is the only ally and
supporter of the Pyongyang regime.
How is the CCP going to deal with this?
Korea Joint Press News Agency reported, as first chairman
of the National Defense Commission, Kim Jong-un has not appeared in public for two weeks since April 1st.
This has led to all kinds of rumors and speculation,
such as that there has been a military coup,
or that central figure of the regime, Jang Sung-taek,
has been imprisoned.
However, South Korean intelligence authorities
have said that this is just groundless speculation.
There have been no unusual movements
on the North Korean side.
The report quoted remarks from experts on the Korean
situation that Kim Jong-un’s sudden disappearance may be
a psychological game, in order to arouse the international
community’s concern.
Wu Fan, editor-in-chief of Chinese Affair in the US:
“What can he say? He is weak, and can’t win a war.
People dislike him, but he wants to start a war.
Now, the US and the CCP are both against him.
I’ll fight against you if you want to fight;
I can deal with you if you don’t fight.
The goal is to remove his nuclear weapons.
That is what Kim is most reluctant to do, so he hides.
He does not know what to do after
the decision of these two countries. “
On April 14th, the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had a
discussion with Japanese Foreign Minister.
Kerry said that the US will take “all necessary measures"
to protect the security of Japan and South Korea.
On April 13th, Kerry had a tense
diplomatic talk with Beijing.
He warned the CCP leader Xi Jinping that if North Korea
launched a missile, it would lead to serious consequences.
Sources said that regarding this issue, John Kerry had
obtained important support from the Beijing government.
When Premier Li Keqiang met with Kerry in Zhongnanhai,
he told Kerry that causing troubles in the Korean Peninsula is like throwing stones at one’s own feet.
Wu Fan: “Kerry has promised to remove the anti-missile
systems if North Korea removes the nuclear weapons.
The US does not need so many
anti-missile systems.
The US hopes that China can pressure
North Korea to remove it’s nuclear weapons.
Now, the ball is the CCP’s hands.
What is the CCP’s going to do next?
Li has warned North Korea
not to throw stones at its own feet.”
The CCP is the only ally and supporter
of the Pyongyang regime.
It is generally regarded as the only country that can exert
influence on North Korea.
According to the US Council on Foreign Relations estimates,
North Korea depends on China for 90% of its energy supply.
But so far, observers say it is not clear just how much pressure
the CCP is putting on North Korea.
The New York Times has reported that a high ranking official
accompanying Kerry for the trip has said
that the US hopes the CCP can stop illegal funds from
being transferred through enterprises and banks.
The North Korean government is using these funds to support
the nuclear-weapons program.
Su Hao, director of Asia-Pacific Research Center of China
Foreign Affairs University says that the CCP is working on North Korea, and even criticizing it.
But North Korea does not quite seem to accept and respect
the CCP—it’s big brother.”
Prof. Su Hao: “Li Keqiang’s remarks did not point at anyone
in particular, so you can interpret them in many ways.
Of course, it is obvious that North Korea has caused this
tense situation to upgrade it’s aid prospects .
So, there is clearly a tone of criticism
in what the Chinese regime has said.”
The Korean New Agency said that April 15th, is the birthday
of supreme leader Kim Il Sung of North Korea.
Kim Jong-un is likely to pay homage at the shrine of
the Fairview Mountain Taiyanggong.
The Pyongyang regime is expected to be thinking
of its next move at the moment.
The South Korean government is paying close attention to
where the North Korean regime is heading.