【新唐人2013年04月08日訊】「債務風險」是近年來國際經濟中最受關注的熱點話題之一。日前，在博鰲亞洲論壇上，有幾位業界專家指出，中國大陸極有可能成為下一波債務危機的爆發點。一起來聽聽他們的分析。
4月6號，在博鰲亞洲論壇名為「債務風險：下一個爆發點」的分組論壇上，包括多名經濟學家在內的與會嘉賓，參加了關於歐債危機前景、美日債務風險分析、新興經濟體債務風險評估，和隱性負債風險的討論，並探討了可能危及全球經濟復甦的下一個債務危機爆發點。
中國日益龐大的政府債務規模，自然是經濟學者們討論的中心。不過中共當局部門債務歷來依靠民間統計，官方從來沒有發佈過準確數據。大陸《財經》雜誌的最新分析統計顯示，2012年政府部門債務，大約在30.8萬億元至33.8萬億元左右，相當於GDP的59.34％至65.12％。
「財新傳媒」總發行人兼總編胡舒立，在論壇上發表演講時直接指出，中國地方政府債務問題存在很大的潛在危機，首先是債務情況不透明，每一個人都不相信統計數據的準確性，另外，增長方式粗放，運行效率低下。
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利：「它黨的成本運行，比如中共中央那些宣傳部、統戰部、還有維穩辦那些，政法委的運行的成本都沒有公開過。在這樣一個大前提之下，有些數據都根本沒有辦法得知。所以中國這個問題比較複雜、比較嚴峻。因為它很多一部分都沒有公開，沒見陽光。」
胡舒立還提到，地方債務以「影子銀行」的方式在增長，是一個值得警惕的負面現象，潛在很大的危機。她把這稱為「中國式次貸」。
這一觀點得到了中國經濟學家、「春華資本」董事長胡祖六的贊同。
胡祖六認為，目前中小企業發展阻礙重重，這和大陸的金融改革有關。中共政府同時扮演所有者和監管者這兩個有衝突的角色，管的太多、太雜，造成了更多隱形的金融風險。說大陸成功跨越全球金融危機，是「危險又自欺欺人的幻覺」。
而原財政部部長項懷誠在參與論壇討論時，雖然承認政府債務存在透明度問題，實際債務率可能比公開數據高，不過他估計債務佔GDP比重僅在40%左右。由此，他得出結論：目前政府的債務並非當務之急，還沒到「非常危險」的地步。
而美國「南卡羅萊納大學」艾肯商學院教授謝田則認為，中共政府的債務有其特殊性，不能類比西方國家的政府債務。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「在西方正常國家，地方政府的債務確實是一種公共債務，是政府為了公共基礎設施而產生的債務。中國地方政府的債務大部分是投資在房地產，而這些房地產的擁有者全都是中共的權貴階層，實際上不是說把這些錢用來發展公共設施和公眾利益，而實際上是進入了貪官污吏的腰包。」
胡祖六還指出，目前，土地財政收入佔地方財政收入的一半以上，這顯然不可持續。為了解決財政壓力，地方政府設立融資平臺，以各種名目借債，導致債務規模失控，腐敗橫行。
胡祖六警示，下一個債務危機的爆發點極有可能在大陸。
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利：「它把黨和政的運行成本都納入到國家，這種運行成本是最高的。第二個方面，中國的企業運營成本高。因為中國現在是全球稅收最高的國家之一。第三個就是企業生存困難，生存困難只有大量負債運營。從國有企業、中小企業再到中國公民生活成本高。這三個原因加在一起，如果長此以往不糾正，胡祖六說的這個現象其實早已經存在。」
另外，胡祖六還提到，要解決債務危機問題，中國應該向聯邦制過渡，而不是中央集權。
採訪/劉惠 編輯/李明飛 後製/陳建銘
Economy Specialists: China Might Be The Flash Point
Of The Next Global Debt Crisis
“Sovereign Debt Risk” is a focus of the international economy.
Recently, in “Boao Forum for Asia”, two economy specialists said
China is most likely the flash point of the next global debt crisis.
On April 6th a group discussion topic at “Boao Forum for Asia”
was “the next flask point of the global debt crisis”.
In the forum, participants discussed the prospects of European debt
crisis, debt risks of US and Japan, new debt risks hidden debt risks.
They also explored the next debt crisis,
which could endanger the recovery of the global economy.
However, the Chinese Communist party (CCP)
has never revealed any accurate debt figures.
Statistics on the debt are collated from non-governmental data.
The newest figures published by China’s magazine “Cai Jing” show
China’s sovereign debt went from 3.08 to 3.38 billion Chinese Yuan,
in 2012 which is equivalent from 59.34% to 65.12% of China’s GDP.
Hu Shuli, the main publisher and chief editor of “Cai Xin Media”,
said in the forum that China’s sovereign debt is a huge potential crisis.
Firstly, China’s debt situation is not transparent; the non-
governmental statistics are not accurate or reliable.
Secondly debt growth is operated very inefficiently.
Gong Shengli, researcher of China’s financial intelligence:
“The operation cost of the CCP has never been publicized.
We don’t know the annual costs to run Propaganda Department,
or the United Front Work Department.
We have no data for the Stability Maintenance Office and
Politics and Law Committee.
That data is not publicized and can never be obtained.
This makes the issues in China even more
complicated and challenging.”
Hu Shuli also said that China’s local government debt has been
increasing in the mode of the “shadow banking system”.
This phenomenon should be watched because it creates a substantial
secondary debt crisis. She called it “China-Mode Secondary Debt”.
Hu Shuli’s opinion was supported by Hu Zuli,
China’s economist and Director of Board of “Chun Hua Capital”.
Hu Zuliu stated there are a lot of obstacles for SME’s to survive
in China, which are related to the financial policy reforms.
The CCP acts as the owner and the supervision function
simultaneously. These two functions should really be separated.
This has caused more hidden financial risks.
When people say “China successfully survived the global
economy crisis”, they are only deceiving themselves with illusions.
Xiang Huaicheng, former Minister of Finance, admitted during
the discussion that China’s sovereign debt lacks transparency.
The actual debt amount can be more than the publicized amount.
Xiang’s estimation is China’s debt should be around 40% of its GDP.
His conclusion is China’s sovereign debt situation is not that risky.
Xie Tian, Professor of Aiken Business School
of University of South Carolina, stated that
unique characteristics of China’s sovereign debt make it
incomparable to the sovereign debts of western countries.
Xie Tian: “In a normal western country, government sovereign debt
is a public debt, which is used for the construction of public facilities.
However, China’s sovereign debt is invested in properties,
which are owned by China’s wealthy or powerful people.
Government debt in China is not used to develop public facilities
or public interests but flows into the wallets of corrupt officials.”
Hu Zuliu also said the income from properties
is about half the total local government income.
To solve the financial pressure, local governments
raise loans under various names.
Debt is spiraling out of control so is rampant corruption.
Hu Zuliu warned the next flash point of
global debt crisis is most likely in China.
Gong Shengli: ”Firstly, when operation cost of the CCP and political
needs costs are taken account into government cost, it’s prohibitive.
Secondly, business operational cost is very expensive because
China is one of the countries that charge the highest taxes.
Thirdly, it’s very difficult for businesses to survive in China
so they have to operate in debt.
The survival cost of national business, SME’s and
even China’s citizens is very high.
Those phenomena have existed for such a long time
but they haven’t been rectified yet.”
Hu Zuliu also thinks that to solve the issues of China’s
sovereign debt, China needs a federal system not centralized one.