【新唐人2013年03月21日訊】政治分析人士裴敏欣在《外交者》（The Diplomat）雜誌上，發表了《中共下臺的五套劇本》。他說，從歷史經驗上看，前蘇聯共產黨、台灣國民黨、與墨西哥革命制度黨，這三個執政時間最長的政黨都不是一夕崩潰，早在他們交出權力的十年前就已出現系統性危機。不出幾年，中國發生民主過渡的可能性相當高。
裴敏欣登在《外交者》雜誌上的文章說，過去積纍的國際和歷史經驗顯示，40年來已有大約80個國家，通過不同形式，從專制統治轉型成民主社會。
史上最長記錄的前蘇聯共產黨維持了74年，其次是台灣國民黨的73年，和墨西哥革命制度黨的71年。
裴敏欣指出，這三個執政時間最長的政黨都不是一夕崩潰，早在他們交出權力的十年前，就已出現系統性危機。而中共統治中國已達65年，社會不安與騷亂也逐年增加，因此可以合理推測，共產黨下臺不再遙不可及，只需再過10到15年，壽命上限即將到來。
旅美政論家伍凡認為，中共倒臺要不了15年了，甚至10年。他認為，共產黨政權在3到5年內一定會發生變化，有六個現實的條件促成。
旅美政論家伍凡：「第一個，就是共產黨的領導人，一代不如一代。蘇聯共產黨也是到了第五代徹底垮臺，它到第五代了；第二個：共產黨這個組織腐敗透頂，沒有自我約束的能力，跋扈狂妄，有時候像個流氓。不知道怎麼樣治理這個國家和治理這個地區，就是要撈錢，撈權，二奶、三奶。」
伍凡說，中共的軍隊都腐爛了，而民眾的反抗勢力已形成。
伍凡：「第三個條件：老百姓忍受了六十多年，現在藉助於網路，廣播，電視以及各樣媒體，相當程度可以得到一點資訊，反抗的勢力形成了，那麼現在還沒完全組織起來，但是這個情緒已經起來了，你看internet（網際網路）上面嘲笑，瘋罵。第四個條件：經濟下滑。」
伍凡指出，中國的國民生產總值（GDP）實際連6都不到。由於經濟發展停滯，加上物價高漲，社會就會動亂。
伍凡：「第五個條件：生態環保越來越壞，這事牽扯到所有的人，不管你有錢沒錢，有權沒權，統統牽扯進去了，這是一個最能夠激動人心。要結束共產黨專政，我上面講的五個條件，我還沒有講到一些，更特殊的團體，像法輪功，民運組織，被共黨迫害，要把它瓦解等等，還不包括這些。」
伍凡指出，中共倒臺的第六個條件，正是那些激烈想要結束共產黨獨裁暴政的團體。他認為，如果中國的生態環境再惡化下去，老百姓就會揭竿而起。
而時政評論員汪北稷指出，共產黨政權滅亡已經開始，但因為寵大的「維穩」系統，因此需要一個過程。
時政評論員汪北稷：「人類歷史上沒有一個獨裁集團、沒有一個統治者，對人民這麼殘酷。對人民的精神上這麼殘酷的去迫害。對人民從宗教信仰上去迫害、對人民從肉體上去迫害、對人類文明、對人類自由的迫害。」
汪北稷表示，共產黨對自然的破壞也是史無前例。
汪北稷：「它是對環境完全的、徹底破壞性的去掠奪，掠奪它的資源，破壞它的綠化，破壞它野生的動物、植物、生物以及人民所居住的環境。它的毀壞性是雙重的，對中國國內的人民，和對世界經濟、政治秩序的破壞、軍事秩序的破壞，所以它的滅亡已經開始了。」
汪北稷還指出，中共的解體，從它自身的罪惡、和世界主流社會的關注與防備，以及中國民眾的覺醒，這三重作用下，已經勢不可擋，中共倒臺是大勢所趨。
採訪編輯/李韻 後製/鍾元
Factors Contributing to Inevitable Downfall of CCP
The Diplomat magazine published an article
authored by political analyst Minxin Pei.
It is entitled, “Five Ways China Could Become a Democracy".
The article highlights the “three longest
ruling one-party regimes" during history.
These were the Communist Party of the former Soviet
Union, and the one-party regimes in Mexico and Taiwan.
They “began to experience system-threatening crisis
roughly a decade before they exited political power."
Pei thinks that “a transition to democracy in China
in the next 10 to 15 years is an event of high probability."
Minxin Pei mentions the “accumulated international
and historical experience in democratic transitions."
That is,"roughly 80 countries have made the
transition from authoritarian rule to varying forms
and degrees of democracy in the past 40 years."
The article states “the record longevity
of a one-party regime is 74 years.
This is held by the former Communist
Party of the Soviet Union."
“One-party regimes in Mexico and Taiwan remained
in power for 71 and 73 years, respectively."
Pei points out that “the three longest-ruling one-party
regimes began to experience system-threatening crisis
roughly a decade before they exited political power."
He considers “if the same historical experience should
be repeated in China, where the CCP has ruled for 63 years."
It is reasonable that “in the coming 10-15 years", “the CCP
will reach the upper-limit of longevity of one-party regimes."
Political critic Wu Fan says that the CCP regime’s
collapse may come true within 10 years.
He forecasts that in the next 3-5 years, the CCP regime
will certainly face a change, which is attributed to six factors.
Wu Fan: “Firstly, successive generations of CCP
leaders have been inferior to their predecessors.
The Communist Party of former Soviet
Union collapsed at its fifth-generation.
Secondly, the CCP has become rotten to core,
domineering and arrogant, and acting like a rogue.
It doesn’t know anything about governance, but knows
how to pocket money, grab power and keep mistresses."
Wu Fan adds that the CCP military are decomposing.
Meanwhile, civil society has seen rebelling forces.
Wu Fan: “Thirdly, civilians have endured for over 60 years.
Today, by means of the internet, radio, TV and other
media, they can get access to some information.
The resistance has been initiated, but hasn’t been organized.
You may just refer to those online mocking and cursing
posts. The fourth is the economic downturn in China."
China’s GDP growth is actually below 6%, Wu Fan says.
The economic stall, plus high prices, creates
an easy situation to trigger social chaos.
Wu Fan: “The fifth factors is that
the environment is getting worse.
This has affected everyone, including rich and
poor, the privileged and the disadvantaged.
There are some other factors
that contribute to CCP’s downfall.
This includes groups such as Falun Gong
practitioners and pro-democracy organizations.
They’re victims of CCP persecution, and have
participated in the disintegration of the CCP."
According to Wu Fan, the sixth factor is the groups
that strongly want to end the tyrannical regime.
If China’s ecological environment deteriorates further,
civilians would start an uprising, he speculates.
Critic Wang Beiji thinks that the demise
of the CCP regime has already begun.
Due to the existence of a massive system of “maintaining
stability", it will take some time before its downfall.
Wang Beiji: “In human history, it is the most cruel
dictatorial regime that has persecuted the people;
in body; in mind; in faith; human civilization; and liberty."
Wang Beiji adds that the CCP’s
destruction of nature is unprecedented.
Wang Beiji: “The CCP’s plundering of
resources is completely destructive.
It destroys ecosystems, species of wild animals and
plants, as well as the human living environment.
Its damage is two-tier, destroying the Chinese people,
and the world’s economic, political and military order.
So its demise has begun already."
Wang Beiji highlights the exposure of the CCP’s
evil by the mainstream international community.
The Chinese people are also awakening,
so the disintegration of the CCP is
evolving into an overwhelming event.
The trend of the CCP regime’s downfall is irreversible.