【新唐人2013年02月06日訊】對於釣魚島與南海主權爭議，中國要不要打仗？中共官方出現兩種聲音。中國軍方副總參謀長戚建國提出「領土一寸也不能少」。而中共軍方總後勤部政治委員劉源則提倡，「確保戰略機遇期，戰爭是最後選項」。劉源的「反戰」是出於甚麼考量?請看以下的報導﹕

2月4號，中共解放軍總參謀部與中國有關部門舉行座談，討論加強海上鬥爭和海上安全合作問題。中國軍方副總參謀長戚建國提出，「國家核心利益一點也不能損，主權一分也不能丟，領土一寸也不能少。」這段話被外界視為，在釣魚島與南海主權爭議中向日本與菲律賓的喊話。

然而，同一天，中共喉舌《人民日報》旗下的《環球時報》，刊登中共軍方總後勤部政治委員劉源的「學習18大精神輔導報告」整理文章，劉源在文章說，「確保戰略機遇期，戰爭是最後選項。」換句話說，就是以國家發展為重，保證國家戰略機遇期的前提是「不打仗」。

時政評論家伍凡：「我想他們在唱雙簧，軍委主席他不講準備要打戰的話，那你軍隊要幹甚麼呢﹖現在日本人已經跟你挑戰了，你能不應戰嗎﹖這個應戰不一定是要去打仗，應戰的結果就是把這些將軍們的胃口吊起來了，吊起來以後，他又控制不了，他拿劉源出來當擋箭牌了。」

劉源在文章中強調，面對當前最核心的利益，軍人確實面臨兩難，現在最大的目標是要保證「戰略機遇期」，而「戰略機遇期的前提是不打仗」，起碼不打大仗。他還說，中國的經濟建設到關鍵時期，別再因為偶發事件被打斷。

時政評論家伍凡：「當這個利益和主權發展衝突的時候，你要顧哪一個，就是換了個假名字的戰略機遇期，實際上就是要保護他的黨國制度，這是他的根本利益，當你黨國制度沒有了，你去打仗是為了國家去爭取這個小島回來了，可是你共產黨的政權沒有了，所以他才不幹呢，但是他又不得不說一句話，我是軍人，軍人的任務就是要準備打仗。」

劉源是前中共主席劉少奇之子，被外界視為「軍二代」的代表人物，他主張戰爭對軍人是唯一選項﹔對國家來說，則是最後選項。

《新唐人》特約評論專家馬傑森：「我不覺得任何人想打這個仗，都是在一個邊緣上，都在懸崖邊上跳舞，沒有人想跳下去。只是說跳的過程中，希望能達到自己想要達到的目地，我不覺得這個事情（打仗）是中共的核心利益所在，因為中共他自己談到，他自己的核心利益本身就是維持這個黨最終的領導。」

有報導認為，正因為劉源出身、經歷與習近平相同，兩人這種關係才使劉敢於公開與習「打對臺」，但劉唱反調的出發點與動機並非要使習難堪，兩人目標一致，都是為保住中共這個江山在自己手裏，「千秋萬代不變」。

時政評論家伍凡：「在我看來他是劉源，他是上將，也是太子黨，應該是習近平的同路人，那麼現在軍隊裡邊可能有一批人，一直在喊打，所以他出來寫這篇文章，是不是要壓這些將軍們，因為這裡邊有一個最關鍵的問題，就是核心利益和國家主權有矛盾的時候，這個核心利益不是他所講的發展經濟的核心利益，而是黨國制度的利益。」

北京獨立學者章立凡對媒體表示，習進平打戰爭旗號令軍隊，是為抓牢軍權，並轉移國內矛盾視線；劉源反戰是因他非常明白，中共軍隊腐敗不堪，若真與美日開戰，必敗無疑，故惟有以「保發展」為由反戰，「否則甲午之戰歷史重演，如何交代？」

採訪/陳漢 編輯/黃億美 後製/郭敬

Whose Interests Is Liu Yun’s Anti-war Banner Protecting?

There are two official voices coming from China regarding

the sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands in the South China Sea.

Should China go to war over this dispute?

Qi jianguo, Deputy Chief of the Chinese military suggested

that China should not give up one inch of its territory.

Liu Yuan, political commissar of the Chinese military

General Logistics Department said, “To ensure strategic opportunities, war is the last option."

Whose interests is Liu Yuan’s anti-war strategy guarding?

Let’s look at the report.

On February 4th, the Military General Staff held a discussion

with the Chinese authorities over strengthening maritime fighting and maritime security cooperation.

Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of the general staff of the Chinese

Military, proposed, “We cannot damage our national core

interests, lose one iota of our sovereignty,

and give up one inch of our territory.”

His words have been widely regarded as the message

to the Japanese and the Philippines over the Diaoyu Islands dispute in the South China Sea.

However, on the same day, the Chinese Communist Party

(CCP) mouthpiece, the People’s Daily’s Global Times

published Liu Yuan’s article, “learning the 18 major

psychiatric counseling report."

In his article, Liu Yun said, “To ensure strategic

opportunities, war is the last option."

In other words, the CCP should develop China first,

and will not start a war.

Political critic Wu Fan: “I think they collaborate

with each other.

The chairman of the Military Commission said

he was ready to fight.

What would our army do?

Now Japan is challenging us, but could we not confront it?

This response does not necessarily mean going into a war.

Its purpose is to pique generals’ appetite.

In case their appetite is out of control,

it can use Liu Yuan as a shield."

Liu Yuan stressed in the article that facing the current core

interests, the military is indeed facing a dilemma.

Its main goal is to ensure strategic opportunities,

which is not fighting a war.

He also said that China’s economic development is at a critical

period and cannot afford to be interrupted by unexpected incidents.

Current affairs commentator Wu Fan: “When a nation’s

interests and sovereignty run into each other, what should one do?

Thus, he uses a phony name, such as strategic opportunities.

In fact, it actually means protecting this party-state system.

That is his fundamental interest. If the party-state system

no longer exists, would he go to war to fight for an island?

He would not be so stupid to win back an island

and lose the regime.

However, as a soldier, he has to say that his mission

is to be ready for a war.

Liu Yuan, the son of former Chinese Communist Party

Chairman Liu Shaoqi, is widely regarded as the military

representative of the second generation.

He argued that war is the last option for a country.

Jason Ma, political critic, NTD Television: “I do not think

anyone really wants to fight this battle.

They are all dancing at the edge of a cliff,

but no one wants to jump.

They just want to achieve their goal through dancing.

I do not think a war is the CCP’s core interests,

because the CCP has mentioned its core interests –

maintaining ultimate leadership of the party."

It has been reported that, precisely because Liu Yuan shares

the same family background and experience with Xi Jinping, he dares to openly Challenge Xi Jinping.

However, Liu’s starting point and motive is not to embarrass

Xi Jinping, they share a same goal.

They both want to keep the CCP in their own hands,

unchanged and for generations to come."

Current affairs commentator Wu Fan: “In my opinion,

Liu Yuan is also a princeling and he should travel the same path as Xi Jinping.

However, some people in the army favor fighting a war.

When Liu Yun wrote his article, did he want to suppress

those generals?

The key issue is when the core interests run into national

sovereignty, the core interests are not economic development but the interests of the party-state system."

Zhang Lifan, Beijing independent scholar,

believes that

Xi Jinping holds a war banner to gain military control

and to shift people’s focus away from domestic conflicts.

Liu Yun’s anti-war is because he knows too well

of Chinese military corruption.

China will lose for sure, fighting a war against

the US or Japan.

Therefore, he advocates, “maintaining security

and development, but fighting a war kept as the last option.”

Otherwise, a repeat of the Sino-Japanese war history

will be hard for the CCP to bear.