【新唐人2013年01月28日訊】中共新任總書記習近平在去年12月南下廣東視察，曾被各界解讀為推進政改的信號。日前，習近平的視察講話被海外媒體曝光，要點卻是堅持馬、列、毛思想，吸取蘇聯解體教訓，決不放鬆黨指揮槍。外界對此作何評價呢？一起來看看。
據《德國之聲》報導，習近平「新南巡」講話，最醒目的部分是重提「蘇聯解體」的歷史。
習近平的講話指稱，蘇聯和蘇共一夜垮臺的原因是「理想信念動搖」，「思想搞亂了，各級黨組織失去作用。」否定蘇共歷史、否定列寧和斯大林，而且蘇聯的軍隊非政治化、非黨化，專政工具不在黨的手中。所以最後戈爾巴喬夫輕輕一句話，宣佈蘇聯共產黨解散，偌大一個黨就解體了。
習近平在講話中表示，要從蘇聯解體中吸取教訓，必須毫不動搖的堅持黨對軍隊的領導。他還感嘆，蘇共倒臺時，雖然黨員比中共多，「但竟無一人是男兒，沒人出來抗爭。」似乎表示他給新政的定位是，做捍衞中共統治的所謂「男兒」。
美國「紐約城市大學」政治學教授夏明：「習近平現在可能還抱有幻想，覺得黨他還可以救下來，但是恐怕社會壓力必須得讓他思考一個問題，是不是黨裡邊有許多有毒的負資產他必須要剝離開來，或者是不是黨和國必須剝離開來。其實這都是最後戈爾巴喬夫他必須走的路。」
北京學者陳子明接受香港《蘋果日報》採訪時表示，如果習近平的講話內容屬實，將表明他所說的「中國夢」實質是「共產主義夢」，是靠暴力達到專政目地的夢，和中國民眾的夢相差甚遠。
習近平的講話內容沒有回應各界翹首以待的「政改」，反而表態，並非採取西方普世價值和西方政治制度才算改革。他說：「不能改的，再過多長時間也是不改，這不能說不改革。」
習近平「新南巡講話」在中共內部傳達後，中共喉舌《新華社》在1月26號發文呼應，聲稱要全面深入「反腐敗」以鞏固執政合法性，並「深刻吸取」蘇共解體的教訓，避免重蹈覆轍。
「哈佛大學費正清中國研究中心」教授馬若德（Roderick MacFarquhar）認為，既得利益集團在中共的腐敗體制內已經根深蒂固，習近平不希望因冒險改革而觸發巨變，導致政權顛覆，讓自己成為中國歷史上的戈爾巴喬夫。因此，中共內部改革的可能性很小，恐怕要靠大規模突發事件「從外部觸發改革」。
夏明：「習近平現在在兩大力量的夾攻之下，所以他表現出了非常多的搖擺和猶豫。他現在作為黨的首領，首先是救黨。但是另一方面現在中共顯然成為中國國家發展很大的障礙和問題。所以他如何面對救黨和救國，這兩個之間是有矛盾和壓力的。」
原「石家莊大學」教師王莉麗則認為，習近平高調開展的反腐工作，如果是以恢復中共的執政權威和樹立合法性為目標，將和做秀無異。
原石家莊大學教師王莉麗：「所有的這些根源在一個問題上，他是否有膽量進行徹徹底底的政治體制改革，真正的實現民主。如果這一點他做不到，所有的不管他是真心也好，還是假意也好，真心如果他做不到這一點恐怕他也是有心無力，假意就更不用說了。」
習近平能否在壓力和矛盾中徹底拋棄「逆潮流、反人類」的中共體制，為中國民眾的福祉和國家的發展作出正確選擇，讓我們拭目以待。
採訪/常春 編輯/李明飛 後製/王明宇
Xi Jinping’s Southern Tour Speech Exposed
Political Reform Not Raised
Xi Jinping, the new General Sectary of the Chinese
Communist Party, made a tour in Guangdong in Dec. 2012.
This tour in southern China has been interpreted as
a signal of promoting political reform.
However, recently Xi’s speech made in his
southern tour was exposed by the overseas media.
In his speech, Xi stated that Thoughts of Marx, Lenin
and Mao Zedong should be firmly followed,
and lessons should be learned from
the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Xi also claimed that China’s army has to be
unswervingly loyal to the Party.
As reported by"The Voice of Germany", Xi Jinping
talked about “the disintegration of the Soviet Union"
once again during his tour to southern China,
this was the most noticeable part in his speech.
Xi claimed that the Soviet Union had disintegrated
over night because"their belief was shaken"and
“their ideologies were in chaos and all levels of
party organizations lost power."
The history of the Soviet Union and the Communist Party
of the Soviet Union were denied.
Lenin and Stalin were denied. In addition, the
Soviet army was not politicized or owned by the Party.
Therefore, the ruling tool was not held
in the hands of the Party.
In the end, only upon Gorbachev’s announcement of
disintegrating the Soviet Communist Party, did it all collapse.
In Xi Jinping’s speech, he stated that lessons have to
be learned from the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
The army must be firmly led by the Party.
He also lamented that ““there was even not a single man
who could stand up for the Party” when the Soviet Union was collapsing.
Even if the Union had had a lot more party members
than the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
From his speech, it seems that Xi presented himself as
“the man"who is going to defend the CCP.
Professor Xi Ming from New York City University:
“Xi Jinping might be still holding the fantasy that he is able to save the Party.
However, the current social pressure should push him to
think about whether he should get rid of so much ‘negative capital’from the Party.
Furthermore, should the Party and country be
treated separately? This is the path that
Gorbachev took to disintegrate the Soviet Union."
As interviewed by Hong Kong’s “Apple Daily",
Chen Ziming, a scholar in Beijing, stated that
Xi’s so-called “China’s Dream"is actually
“Communism Dream"if Xi did make a speech like that.
“The Communism Dream" is a dream
to realize dictatorship through violence,
which is running in the opposite direction
from the dream of Chinese people.
In Xi Jinping’s speech, he didn’t respond to the
“political reform” that all walks of life were waiting to hear.
Nevertheless, he claimed that reform doesn’t mean that
we have to adopt the universal values
or political system of the western countries.
After Xi Jinping’s “New Southern Tour Speech"was
transmitted among the Party organizations internally,
the state official news agency “Xinhua " published
an article on January 26 to respond to Xi’s speech.
The article says that thorough and deep
anti-corruption activities will be performed to consolidate the Party’s ruling legitimacy.
The article also says that lessons from the disintegration
of the Soviet Union should be seriously learned so that the same errors wouldn’t be recommitted.
Professor Roderick MacFarquhar from Harvard University
thinks that the vested interest group has been ingrained in the CCP’s corrupt system.
Xi Jinping doesn’t want to reform at the risk of
triggering huge change in the CCP’s regime.
Xi doesn’t want to be China’s Gorbachev.
There is very little chance that the CCP will reform internally.
Only unexpected external force can trigger the reform.
Xia Ming: “Xi Jinping stays in the middle of
two forces pushing him in two directions.
Therefore he’s been showing a lot of swing and hesitation.
Now as the Party head, he is facing how to
save the Party.
However, there are a lot of conflicts and pressure
about saving the Party or saving the country."
Wang Li, a former teacher from Shijiazhuang University,
thinks that it’s nothing but a political show if Xi
promotes anti-corruption in a high profile only to recover the CCP’s authority and ruling legitimacy.
Wang Li:"The source problem is whether or not
Xi has the courage for complete political reform and to realize democracy in China.
If he is not able to do it, all he does is useless
no matter if his intention is real or not."
Can Xi make a right choice and get rid of the CCP system,
known as being"against historical trend and
against humanity", under all kinds of pressure and conflicts?
Let’s wait and see what happens.