【新唐人2013年01月16日訊】幾天前，中日在釣魚島空域首度出現軍機對峙，大有中日戰爭一觸即發之勢。而中共總參謀部頒發《2013年全軍軍事訓練指示》，要求全軍和武警部隊2013年要強化打仗思想、做好打仗準備。年前，習近平不但承諾提升全軍待遇，還修訂嘉獎條例，一次作戰獎金可高達數億元。不過外界認為，中共目前不可能與日本開戰，習近平在軍隊高談對日作戰，是因為習近平在黨內和軍內的權威，受到了除團派以外的其他利益集團的挑戰，他需要用這種方式來迎合軍中「鷹派」，。

日前中共軍方媒體發表「總參謀部：2013年要強化打仗思想 做好打仗準備」一文後，被大陸媒體大量轉載。 《2013年全軍軍事訓練指示》要求，2013年，全軍和武警部隊要緊緊圍繞能打仗、打勝仗的目標，以軍事鬥爭準備任務為牽引，大力加強實戰化軍事訓練。

另據香港《爭鳴》雜誌報導，年前，中央政治局審議通過了「中央軍事委員會關於堅決維護國家固有領土釣魚島主權，作好堅實軍事鬥爭部署」的決議。軍方四總部、各軍兵種、各大軍區提交請戰書。

習近平承諾保障提升全軍待遇。十二月初中央政治局、國務院又修訂、通過有關提高對軍事、國防科技等方面嘉獎條例。其中包括：軍事武器裝備研製創新嘉獎提高十到五十倍﹔特等獎：個人最高二千萬元，集體獎最高兩億元。戰鬥中的嘉獎提高二十倍到一百倍。

時政評論家藍述指出，只要中國國內的矛盾，還能用槍桿子鎮壓下去，中共就不會向日本開戰。

時政評論家藍述：「江澤民在位時大量提拔將軍，到胡錦濤上臺時，沒有那麼多軍銜可給了，所以他給軍隊漲工資，那麼到了習近平，他只能做的事情是提高一些獎金，同時迎合軍內鷹派的聲音，樹立他在軍內的威信，應對他在軍內面對的挑戰。」

中國在第二次世界戰爭後，多次拒絕託管釣魚島，中共在50年代為了對付美國，多次聲明釣魚島屬於日本領土。

藍述認為，如果中共把釣魚島的事件上交國際法庭，中共一定會輸，但是因為日本在侵華戰爭中欠中國太多，如果中共願意和日本談判，日本一定願意共同開發釣魚島。

藍述：「釣魚島打起來之後，物質利益不大，除了炒作民族情緒之外，中共肯定要輸掉的，東盟十國馬上全部會倒向美日，第二，台灣問題會變得非常複雜，中共這麼多年在台灣的投資很可能一下就泡湯，另外習近平和第五代領導人會面臨一個巨大的風險，中國海軍的裝備遠遠比不上日本，還不包括日本背後的美日同盟。」

有軍事評論員說，軍事立威，從來都是中共新領導班子上臺後必演的故伎。

中國公民監政會發起人郭永豐：「為中國權貴打仗呢，還是為人民打仗呢，國內問題都解決不好，你還那麼去搞，我想這個仗是絕對打不起來的，他也就是狐假虎威嚇唬一下，如果真要打的話，他也是等於自殺。」

《爭鳴》還透露，中央軍委副主席範長龍在視察北京軍區空軍部隊、東海艦隊、潛艇大隊、駐山東二炮地對地導彈旅、駐大連特種兵部隊時，都針對釣魚島事件作出準備戰鬥號召。

郭永豐：「如果真要打的話，他就是轉移國內矛盾的視線，讓國內被矇蔽的老百姓支援前線，但是目前說句老實話，老百姓也不願意去給他做炮灰，非要打仗，向老百姓去搜刮，老百姓承受不了，可能也要反抗。」

「中國公民監政會」發起人郭永豐還表示，中共歷來對外稱「奴才」，對內欺壓百姓從不手軟，在國內，即使真正的憤青們也很透了中共的權貴，只有五毛憤青才為中共搖旗吶喊。

採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/君卓

China’s Getting Ready for War Is Only a Bluff

A few days ago, Japanese aircraft,

above the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands airspace,

confronted China’s military aircraft for the first time.

It was as if a Sino-Japanese War

could break out at any moment.

China’s General Staff Headquarters issued

“2013 military training instructions”.

This requested the military and armed forces to

strengthen combat thoughts and good combat preparation.

Last year, Xi Jinping not only promised to enhance the

entire military situation but also revise awards payouts.

A combat bonus can be of several hundred million dollars.

But outsiders say that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

is currently not capable to go to war with Japan.

Xi Jinping is talking about the war against Japan,

because he is challenged by other interest groups.

His authority within the party and within the military

is being threatened.

He needs to use war with other nations to cater to the

“hawks" in the military to establish his authority with them.

Chinese military media very recently published the “training

instructions” to strengthen combat thoughts and preparation.

This was also published by many Mainland media.

Military forces and armed police need to focus on fighting well

and winning to actually strengthen combat military trainings.

According to Hong Kong “Contend" magazine,

two years ago, the Political Bureau of the CCP

adopted a resolution of the Central Military Commission

to safeguard China’s sovereignty over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands, and to prepare a solid military combat.

Four general headquarters of the military,

all branches of the military and military regions submitted written request for battle.

Xi Jinping promised protection to enhance the

whole army treatment.

In early December, the Political Bureau of the CCP Central

Committee and the State Council amended ordinance for

advancement of the military, national defense and science

and technology awards.

Research and innovation awards of military weapons and

equipment were increased by ten to fifty times.

The Grand Prize for personal awards was up to 20 million

yuan and collective awards of up to two hundred million yuan.

Combat awards increased a hundred times.

Political critic, Lan Shu said as long as

China’s domestic issues can be suppressed with guns, the CCP will not go to war with Japan.

Lan Shu: “When Jiang Zemin was in power,

he promoted a large number of generals.

When Hu Jintao came to power, he gave the military a raise.

Now, Xi Jinping is in power, the only thing he can offer is the

prize money, catering to the needs of hawks within the military.

This will also establish his authority in order to face the

challenges within the military."

After the Second World War, China repeatedly refused to

host the Diaoyu Islands.

In the 1950’s, the CCP stated many times that the Diaoyu Islands

belonged to Japan, in order to deal with the United States.

Lan Shu believes if the Diaoyu islands incident were turned

over to the International Tribunal, the CCP will lose for sure.

Since Japan owed China a lot due to the Sino-Japanese invasion,

the CCP can negotiate with Japan if it chooses.

Japan will join in to develop the Diaoyu Islands

willingly with the CCP.

Lan Shu: “The Diaoyu Islands offer very little material interests,

except it can hype up nationalism sentiments.

The CCP will lose and ten ASEAN countries will immediately

team up with the United States and Japan.

The second issue is Taiwan, which will become very complicated.

All the CCP’s investment of many years in Taiwan will be wasted.

Xi Jinping and the fifth generation of leaders will face a huge risk.

The Chinese navy’s equipment is far less than Japan.

This is not counting the US-Japan alliance behind Japan"

Some military commentators say, getting credit from military

has always been the trick for the new leadership of the CCP.

Guo Yongfeng, founder of Chinese Citizens Monitoring

Council: “Are you fighting for the Chinese dignitaries or fighting for the Chinese people?

We cannot even resolve our domestic conflicts

and we want to start a war.

I don’t believe it is likely to happen. If the CCP really wants

to fight, it will be like committing suicide.”

“Contend ” also revealed that Central Military Commission

Vice Chairman Fan Changlong made a “ready to fight” call.

He was inspecting the Beijing Military Region Air Force,

the East China Sea Fleet submarine brigade,

the Second Artillery Corps, the surface-to-surface missile

brigade in Shandong, and the Dalian Special Forces.

Guo Yongfeng: “If they really want to fight,

they are just shifting the domestic view.

They ask the public to support the front blindly.

However, to be honest, people are reluctant to fight for them or lose their lives for that.

People even resist exorbitant taxes,

which they can no longer afford.”

Guo Yongfeng, founder of the Chinese Citizen monitoring

Council, thinks the CCP has always acted like a weakling in dealing with other countries,

but they are brutal toward the Chinese people.

In China, even the angry youths hate the CCP’s guts, only

the paid youth supporters will cheer the CCP on, he said.