【新唐人2013年01月03日訊】中共十八屆中央政治局第二次集體學習時，新任中共總書記習近平強調要採用「摸著石頭過河」的改革方法，朝著中共十八大指引的改革方向走。海外媒體評論說，新的一年，中共會啟動所謂的第三波改革，但民眾期望的「政改」難以實現，中國依然延續的是「鳥籠政治」。
2012年的最後一天，中共中央政治局就所謂的「改革開放」進行了第二次集體學習。中共中央總書記習近平在主持學習時提出了5點意見。
其中，習近平強調的一點是，「摸著石頭過河」是符合中國國情的改革方法。他說，改革開放是一項長期的、艱鉅的、繁重的事業，必須一代又一代人接力幹下去。
美國中文雜誌《中國事務》總編輯伍凡表示，共產黨改革開放30多年了，到現在還在摸著石頭過河。中共當局根本沒有一個計劃目標，一個遠大的目標和路線圖。
《中國事務》總編輯伍凡：「路線圖非常重要，你一步一步怎麼走，你應該有一個設計，一個規劃出來，到現在還在摸著石頭。那個石頭現在是摸不到了，有的是越來越深了，摸不到石頭要不要過河？有的河淺，有的河深，你到長江、黃河裡面還去摸甚麼石頭呢？」
伍凡指出，全世界那麼多國家可以學，中共不願意學，還是要自己閉門造車，摸石頭。摸著石頭過河，其實就是想繼續的欺騙大家。
大陸民主人士恩廣表示，從習近平的講話當中可以看出，習近平也看透了中國現在的形勢，再不改革，社會矛盾激化越來越厲害。但是，他又不能從權力中心去改變，只能從中下層做局部改變，緩解一下社會矛盾。
大陸民主人士恩廣：「局部的改革，但是這個改革的範圍肯定基於中下層，或者社會包括一些保障，和其他的這種民怨四起的這種方向，可能他會做一點動作，匯一點民心，這有可能。但是從它的本質問題上，國情和特色還是丟棄不了。」
新加坡《聯合早報》在歲末刊載文章說：中共新領導層在新的一年，將在民生、稅制及戶籍制度等方面有所動作，但對改革的『深水區』——司法獨立、民主選舉、言論自由等依然不會觸及。
曾任國務院「農村發展中心」研究員的中國學者姚監復，對《德國之聲》表示，政治上，中共還是「鳥籠政治」，絕對跳不出一黨專制的大籠子。
大陸民主人士恩廣：「小的改革是不存在的。但是，大的改革又牽扯到它們的至關利益，又牽扯到它們最核心的利益，這兩點本身就是矛盾的。其實民主和專制本來就是矛盾的，本來就是水火不容的。」
上週，武漢市「兩會」新聞通氣會透露，一月初將召開「兩會」。然而，武漢市「兩會宣傳報導組」下發通知宣佈，全國記者需要經過政審才可以獲得採訪權。大陸民眾認為，這是官方釋放緊縮言論自由和新聞自由的信號彈。
恩廣說，今年3月中共也要開「兩會」，到時候，民眾會看習近平下一些甚麼主席令，制定一些甚麼規則。
大陸民主人士恩廣：「他是不是有那種善心善舉，能夠在歷史上做出一些功勳，能夠讓自己成為一個真正的受人尊崇的，能流芳後世的人，那就取決於他的人品和個性。」
伍凡表示，如果習近平在3月「兩會」之後，還用「維穩」的方式來維持中國共產黨，共產黨會死的更快 。
採訪編輯/唐睿 後製/陳建銘
Communist Third Reform Continues Birdcage Politics
In the second meeting of the 18th Politburo,
the new General Secretary, Xi Jinping,
instructed to reform with the “trial and error" approach.
Some overseas media have called it the third wave of reform,
while others believe it simply to be politics in a birdcage, and that true reform is impossible.
Dec 31, 2012, the Communist Politburo conducted
the second meeting on “reform and opening."
General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the meeting
and indicated five principles.
Xi Jinping stressed reform through “trial and error"
is applicable to China.
He indicated that reform and opening up is time consuming,
arduous and onerous.
It requires effort from generations and generations.
Chris Wu, editor-in-chief of China Affairs magazine,
indicates that for over 30 years, the Communist Party’s
reform and opening is still based on trial and error.
It shows that the Communist regime has not had a goal,
plan or roadmap.
Chris Wu, editor-in-chief of the China Affairs: “A road map
is a very important design with step by step plans.
Without it, how can you cross a major river such
as the Yangtze River or Yellow River?
The water is too deep.
Are you going to cross it or not?"
Chris Wu points out that there are so many countries
around the world the Communist regime can learn from.
But it refused to. The trial and error approach is simply
an old tactic to deceive everyone.
Activist En Guang indicates Xi Jinping’s speech shows that
Xi Jinping is aware of the increasingly severe social conflict in China.
However, he can only alleviate the problem partially from
around the society, but not directly at the center of regime.
Activist En Guang: “Partial reform might be conducted
around the middle and lower class to relieve some discontent and comfort people a little.
But it won’t touch the core of the problem.
The nature of communism won’t get touched at all."
Singapore’s zaobao.com.sg published
an article which said,
“In the new year, the new Chinese Communist Party
leadership will act upon the people’s livelihood,
the tax system and the household registration system,
but reform will not touch deep water,
such as the independence of the judiciary,
democratic elections, and freedom of expression."
Former researcher at the Rural Development Center of the
State Council, Yao Jianfu, told Deutsche Welle that politically,
the Communist regime still conducts everything
in the birdcage, i.e., the one-party ruling system.
En Guang: “Some minor reforms will exist.
But the major ones will touch their most intuitive and
core interests. Therefore, it is itself contradictory.
In fact, democracy and authoritarianism are contradictory,
and inherently incompatible."
Last week, Wuhan City revealed that two meetings (annual meetings
of the National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference) will convene in early January.
However, the Two meetings Propaganda Group in Wuhan also
announced that reporters need to pass an investigation to get the interview right.
It is believed this signals tightened speech and press.
En Guang says that the Communist regime
will also conduct Two meetings this March.
People will see the true Xi Jinping through his next set
of new rules.
En Guang: “His quality and personality will decide
his historical position."
Chris Wu indicates that if Xi Jinping continues stability
maintenance, the Communist regime will end faster.