【新唐人2012年11月24日訊】中共「十八大」之後，如何扭轉目前中國經濟增長持續趨緩，甚至負成長，以及通貨膨脹等問題？有報導說，朱鎔基在這次「十八大」過程中發揮了黨內元老代表的作用；並說，新的領導班子將進行大規模經濟改革。對此，我們來聽聽大陸及海外專家們的分析。
據《朝鮮日報》發自北京的報導，中共前總理朱鎔基在任時，擔任國務院副秘書長的馬凱，在明年3月，將被提升為主管財政和金融事務的副總理。而過去支持朱鎔基並在他身邊的人士，「十八大」之後紛紛擔任重要職務。因此，觀察人士指稱，中共中央總書記習近平領導的新領導班子，將進行大規模經濟改革。
旅美中國經濟社會學者，「普林斯頓大學」社會學博士程曉農認為，這樣的報導牽強附會。尤其，朱鎔基原來身邊最主要的副手溫家寶，幹了十年卻甚麼也改不了。
旅美中國經濟社會學者程曉農：「朱鎔基出場是為了壓住江澤民，並不是甚麼經濟上要改革的徵兆，這完全被誤讀了。關於中共要改革的這些無稽之談，早就該中止。大陸的媒體和中共的宣傳經常會用改革這個詞來做一些個宣傳，去掩蓋它不改革的真實行為。」
北京知名經濟學者茅於軾指出，大陸的經濟制度確實需要大改革。一是讓民營資本進入金融業，讓土地交換自由化；同時，要逐步取消所有中共壟斷的行業，讓「國進民退」變成「國退民進」。但茅於軾也認為，當局改革的可能性不大。
北京知名經濟學者茅於軾：「維持無產階級專政是他們的首要任務。因為，恰好問題就在這兒，現在要釋入無產階級專政，或者取消？但是，我分析他們現在的首要目地，是保護或者加強無產階級專政。」
中共總書記胡錦濤在「十八大」上定了「既不走封閉殭化的老路、也不走改旗易幟的邪路」的調子。程曉農分析，大陸現在經濟結構出現的嚴重問題，不是經濟改革就能做到，而在於政治體制不改革。尤其，權貴集團非法的高收入中共不能查辦、不敢查辦。
程曉農：「換句話講，權貴繼續發橫財，老百姓繼續窮下去，這樣的經濟結構，是不可能有任何改善的。所以，溫家寶也講過，中國經濟沒有辦法持續增長，唯一可能改變這種收入分配結構和財產結構的辦法就是政治改革。」
美國「南卡羅萊納大學」艾肯商學院教授謝田分析，對中共內部所謂改革派抱有幻想的人，現在可能已經失望。而對中共還抱有幻想，就無法清醒的認識中國局勢。謝田指出，中共出於政治上的需要、壟斷權力的需要和掠奪中國社會財富的需要，它是不會改革的。
美國「南卡羅萊納大學」艾肯商學院教授謝田：「善良的人們現在應該要拒絕相信中共。因為，中共每次在危機的時候，都會拋出來甚麼政治改革、經濟改革。實際上，我們就將知道它是經濟出現非常嚴重的巨大問題。它的經濟我認為已經處在崩潰的邊緣。」
長期研究中國經濟社會問題的旅美中國經濟專家何清漣，最近撰文指出，「十八大代表的構成，正好體現了權力與金錢的公開聯盟」。從90年代開始，那一場場財富盛宴，電力、石油、房地產、股市、金融……，每個領域都可見到中國紅色家族的身影。有人說，今天中國最大的問題是貧富差距，何清漣認為，那只是皮相之談，她說，中國真正的問題是：早就形成的「利益集團俘獲國家」現象。
採訪編輯/梁欣 後製/鍾元
The Rich Get Richer, The Poor Are Always Poor.
How Can Zhu Rongji’s Brainpower Reform That?
After the 18th Party congress, how can there be any change
to the economic growth rate slow down or negative growth and inflation?
Some reports said that Zhu Rongji played the role of
representative veteran of the Communist Party at the 18th congress.
The report also said the new leadership would perform
large-scale economic reforms.
let’s listen to the experts’ analysis at home and abroad
to answer the question.
According to the report of chn.chosun.com from Beijing that
Deputy Secretary-General of the State Council Ma Kai will
be appointed Chinese vice premier during Zhu Rongji’s rule.
He will be in charge of fiscal and financial affairs.
Supporting Zhu and working around him in the past,
the officials have played key roles.
The observers pointed out that general secretary Xi jinping’s
new leadership would perform large-scale economic reforms.
Chinese economical and societal scholar, sociology PH.D of
Princeton University Cheng Xiaonong thinks that such reports are far-fetched.
Especially as Zhu’s main assistant Wen Jiabao who served as
Chinese premier for ten years, can’t reform anything.
Cheng Xiaonong: ”The purpose of Zhu Rongji’s appearing
is to repress Jiang Zemin.
It’s not the symbol of economic reforms, it was misunderstood.
The discussion about Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s reforms
should be stopped.
Mainland media and the CCP’s propaganda organizations
always propagate reform.
Its purpose is to cover up the real action of non-reform.”
Famous Beijing economics scholar Mao Yushi points out that
Mainland economy certainly needs to be reformed.
First, freely exchanging land, at the same time gradually
abolishing the monopoly industry controlled by the CCP.
Changing the situation from state-owned enterprises
leading to private enterprises leading.
However, Mao also claimed that the reformatory possibilities
from the authority was unlikely.
Mao Yushi: “the authority’s primary task is to maintain the
dictatorship of the proletariat.
The key issue is that reform needs to dilute the dictatorship
of the proletariat, or abolish it.
However, I think the CCP’s primary task is to protect or
reinforce the dictatorship of the proletariat.”
Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao made sure that
“Neither go closed rigid old road, nor go changing flag evil road”.
Cheng Xiaonong analyzed that mainland economy emerged
with severe problems.
The economic reform can’t solve the problems, the
politic reform must be performed.
Especially, the CCP regime can’t, doesn’t date to deal with
the illegal high-income of the dignitary groups.
Cheng Xiaonong: “To also say, the dignitary groups continue
to make a fortune, ordinary people continue to be poor,
it can’t have any improvement in such economic system.
Wen Jiabao also said that it’s no way to keep
Chinese economy growing.
The only way is to change the income structure and
fortune structure, which is politic reform.”
University of South Carolina, Professor Xie Tian, Aiken School
of Business, analyzed that anyone who wanted political reform within the CCP might be disappointed.
The person who has illusions about the CCP isn’t clear about
the Chinese situation.
Xie Tian pointed out, from political needs, menology needs and
robbing Chinese fortune needs, the CCP can’t perform reform.
Professor Xie Tian: “kind-hearted people should refuse
to believe the CCP.
When each crisis emerged, the CCP will take out so-called
politic reform and economic reform.
In fact, we have known that the mainland economy emerged
with a big problem.
I think its economic is at the border of collapse.”
Living in the U.S, long term researcher of Chinese economic
and social problems, economist expert He Qinglian recently issued an article.
The article points out: “The composition of the delegates of the
18th Party congress reflected open union of power and money.”
From 1990s, with every fortune opportunity such as electric
power, oil, real estate, stock market, financial etc., the dignitaries’ families are involved in every field.
Someone has said that the current biggest Chinese problem is
the gap between the rich and the poor.
However, he thinks that it’s only the surface.
He said that the real Chinese problem is “the interest group
captured the whole country” which formed early.